Optimizing Sustainable Entrepreneurial Ecosystems: The Role of Government-Certified Incubators in Early-Stage Financing

In the sustainable evolution of the entrepreneurial ecosystem, the efficiency of early-stage capital allocation directly affects the intergenerational transmission capacity of innovation resources. The financing barriers caused by information asymmetry urgently require institutional solutions. This study, based on tracking data from 19,463 startups in China’s information technology sector (2016–2019), analyzes how government-certified incubators (GCIs) optimize the sustainability of the entrepreneurial ecosystem through signaling mechanisms. The empirical results show that collaboration with a GCI can significantly increase the likelihood of IT startups securing venture capital by approximately 25%. This effect is not only due to the strict screening and resource support provided by GCIs, but also due to their role in amplifying internal signals from startups, such as the experience of founders and intellectual property. Notably, in the IT sector, the impact of GCIs is more significant for startups traditionally disadvantaged, particularly those led by female founders. Our research demonstrates that GCIs drive the sustainable development of the entrepreneurial ecosystem through three signaling mechanisms: (1) institutional certification screening, which optimizes the intergenerational allocation efficiency of ecosystem resources; (2) the signaling validation–amplification mechanism, which enhances the value of intellectual property and founder experience, alleviating investors’ challenges in quantifying startup potential; (3) inclusive signal rebalancing, where GCI certification significantly improves the funding success rate of female founders, breaking traditional market biases in screening disadvantaged groups and supporting the inclusive and sustainable development of the entrepreneurial ecosystem. These findings provide a new pathway for emerging economies to optimize the resilience of their entrepreneurial ecosystems through policy tools: for governments, GCIs achieve sustainable development goals at low institutional cost; for investors, the signal integration mechanism reduces investment information friction; and for entrepreneurs, certification endorsements accelerate market validation of sustainable business models.