IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v17y2025i14p6386-d1700149.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Forecast of CO 2 and Pollutant Emission Reductions from Electric Vehicles in Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei

Author

Listed:
  • Li Li

    (College of Economics and Management, Tianjin University of Science and Technology, Tianjin 300222, China)

  • Honglin Liu

    (School of Management, Tianjin University of Technology, Tianjin 300384, China)

  • Bingchun Liu

    (School of Management, Tianjin University of Technology, Tianjin 300384, China)

Abstract

The promotion of new energy vehicles (NEVs) represents a critical strategy for mitigating carbon emissions and air pollution. To evaluate the CO 2 and air pollutant reduction potential of NEVs in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region, this study developed an integrated framework combining gray correlation analysis (GRA) and bidirectional long short-term memory (BiLSTM), referred to as the GRA-BiLSTM model, to forecast the adoption trend of NEVs and calculate the CO 2 and air pollutant emission reduction. The GRA-BiLSTM model developed in this study shows optimal predictive performance. The results indicate that new energy vehicles (NEVs) have great potential for environmental collaborative emission reduction in the transportation sector: it is predicted that by 2035, the total number of NEVs will be nearly 11.88 million, with a cumulative reduction of 2.76 billion tons of carbon emissions and significant reductions in various key air pollutants. This study provides an important quantitative basis for formulating pollution reduction and carbon reduction policies in the transportation sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Li Li & Honglin Liu & Bingchun Liu, 2025. "Forecast of CO 2 and Pollutant Emission Reductions from Electric Vehicles in Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(14), pages 1-22, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:17:y:2025:i:14:p:6386-:d:1700149
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/17/14/6386/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/17/14/6386/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Niu, Zibo & Liu, Yuanyuan & Gao, Wang & Zhang, Hongwei, 2021. "The role of coronavirus news in the volatility forecasting of crude oil futures markets: Evidence from China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    2. Qiao, Weibiao & Liu, Wei & Liu, Enbin, 2021. "A combination model based on wavelet transform for predicting the difference between monthly natural gas production and consumption of U.S," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    3. Pan, Shuai & Fulton, Lewis M. & Roy, Anirban & Jung, Jia & Choi, Yunsoo & Gao, H. Oliver, 2021. "Shared use of electric autonomous vehicles: Air quality and health impacts of future mobility in the United States," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    4. Gong, Xu & Fu, Chengbo & Huang, Qiping & Lin, Meimei, 2022. "International political uncertainty and climate risk in the stock market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    5. Zheng, Xuemei & Menezes, Flavio & Zheng, Xiaofeng & Wu, Chengkuan, 2022. "An empirical assessment of the impact of subsidies on EV adoption in China: A difference-in-differences approach," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 121-136.
    6. Lu, I.J. & Lin, Sue J. & Lewis, Charles, 2008. "Grey relation analysis of motor vehicular energy consumption in Taiwan," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 2556-2561, July.
    7. Li, Kun & Dong, Feng, 2022. "Government strategy for banning gasoline vehicles: Evidence from tripartite evolutionary game," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 254(PA).
    8. Yao, Xusheng & Ma, Shoufeng & Bai, Yin & Jia, Ning, 2022. "When are new energy vehicle incentives effective? Empirical evidence from 88 pilot cities in China," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 207-224.
    9. Toon Vandyck & Kimon Keramidas & Stéphane Tchung-Ming & Matthias Weitzel & Rita Dingenen, 2020. "Quantifying air quality co-benefits of climate policy across sectors and regions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(3), pages 1501-1517, December.
    10. Xuan, Yanni & Yue, Qiang, 2016. "Forecast of steel demand and the availability of depreciated steel scrap in China," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 1-12.
    11. Sun, Chuanwang & Xu, Shuhua & Yang, Mian & Gong, Xu, 2022. "Urban traffic regulation and air pollution: A case study of urban motor vehicle restriction policy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    12. Yin, Ting & Chen, Siyuan & Wang, Ge & Tan, Yuxuan & Teng, Fei & Zhang, Qi, 2024. "Can subsidy policies achieve fuel cell logistics vehicle (FCLV) promotion targets? Evidence from the beijing-tianjin-hebei fuel cell vehicle demonstration city cluster in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 311(C).
    13. Feng, Qianqian & Sun, Xiaolei & Hao, Jun & Li, Jianping, 2021. "Predictability dynamics of multifactor-influenced installed capacity: A perspective of country clustering," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    14. Gao, Jiayang & Xu, Xianglong & Zhang, Tao, 2024. "Forecasting the development of Clean energy vehicles in large Cities: A system dynamics perspective," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Liu, Bingchun & Song, Chengyuan & Liang, Xiaoqin & Lai, Mingzhao & Yu, Zhecheng & Ji, Jie, 2023. "Regional differences in China's electric vehicle sales forecasting: Under supply-demand policy scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    2. Liu, Bingchun & Song, Chengyuan & Wang, Qingshan & Zhang, Xinming & Chen, Jiali, 2022. "Research on regional differences of China's new energy vehicles promotion policies: A perspective of sales volume forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 248(C).
    3. Liu, Changyu & Gong, Wanrong & Dong, Guanglong & Ji, Qiang, 2024. "Regulation of environmental, social and governance disclosure greenwashing behaviors considering the risk preference of enterprises," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    4. Zhao, Xiaolei & Li, Xuemei & Liu, Yiran & Mao, Yumeng, 2025. "Emission reduction effects of electric vehicle promotion and application pilots: Cooperative pilots vs single pilots," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    5. Hao, Yanjin & Peng, Binbin & Zou, Hongyang & Zhu, Ning & Du, Huibin, 2025. "How does differentiated subsidy adjustment influence new energy vehicle sales?," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    6. Pellegrini, Andrea & Yao, Xusheng & Rose, John M. & Ma, Shoufeng, 2025. "An autoregressive spatial stochastic frontier analysis for quantifying the sales efficiency of the electric vehicle market: An application to 88 pilot cities in China," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    7. Sun, Yong & Liu, Baoyin & Sun, Zhongrui & Yang, Ruijia, 2023. "Inter-regional cooperation in the transfers of energy-intensive industry: An evolutionary game approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 282(C).
    8. Wang, Zhiwei & Lei, Tingzhou & Chang, Xia & Shi, Xinguang & Xiao, Ju & Li, Zaifeng & He, Xiaofeng & Zhu, Jinling & Yang, Shuhua, 2015. "Optimization of a biomass briquette fuel system based on grey relational analysis and analytic hierarchy process: A study using cornstalks in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 523-532.
    9. Tao, Miaomiao, 2024. "Dynamics between electric vehicle uptake and green development: Understanding the role of local government competition," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 227-240.
    10. Rui Luo & Jinpei Liu & Piao Wang & Zhifu Tao & Huayou Chen, 2024. "A multisource data‐driven combined forecasting model based on internet search keyword screening method for interval soybean futures price," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(2), pages 366-390, March.
    11. Sumitkumar, Rathor & Al-Sumaiti, Ameena Saad, 2024. "Shared autonomous electric vehicle: Towards social economy of energy and mobility from power-transportation nexus perspective," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    12. Ghosh, Indranil & Chaudhuri, Tamal Datta & Alfaro-Cortés, Esteban & Gámez, Matías & García, Noelia, 2022. "A hybrid approach to forecasting futures prices with simultaneous consideration of optimality in ensemble feature selection and advanced artificial intelligence," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    13. Xuan, Yanni & Yue, Qiang, 2017. "Scenario analysis on resource and environmental benefits of imported steel scrap for China’s steel industry," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 186-198.
    14. Feng Liu & Xingjun Huang & Longxiao Li, 2024. "The impact of green consumers on electric vehicle charging station diffusion based on complex network evolutionary game," Energy & Environment, , vol. 35(8), pages 3981-4002, December.
    15. Liu, Yajie & Dong, Feng & Wang, Yulong & Li, Jingyun & Qin, Chang, 2023. "Assessment of the energy-saving and environment effects of China's gasoline vehicle withdrawal under the impact of geopolitical risks," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PB).
    16. Behzadi, Amirmohammad & Holmberg, Sture & Duwig, Christophe & Haghighat, Fariborz & Ooka, Ryozo & Sadrizadeh, Sasan, 2022. "Smart design and control of thermal energy storage in low-temperature heating and high-temperature cooling systems: A comprehensive review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    17. Gholami, M. & Barbaresi, A. & Torreggiani, D. & Tassinari, P., 2020. "Upscaling of spatial energy planning, phases, methods, and techniques: A systematic review through meta-analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    18. Qi’ang Du & Hongbo Li & Yanyan Fu & Xintian Fu & Rui Wang & Tingting Jia, 2023. "More Green, Better Funding? Exploring the Dynamics between Corporate Bank Loans and Trade Credit," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-20, June.
    19. Pan, Shuai & Yu, Wendi & Fulton, Lewis M. & Jung, Jia & Choi, Yunsoo & Gao, H. Oliver, 2023. "Impacts of the large-scale use of passenger electric vehicles on public health in 30 US. metropolitan areas," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    20. Fava, Santino Del & Gupta, Rangan & Pierdzioch, Christian & Rognone, Lavinia, 2024. "Forecasting international financial stress: The role of climate risks," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:17:y:2025:i:14:p:6386-:d:1700149. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.