Exploring the Evolution Trend of China’s Digital Carbon Footprint: A Simulation Based on System Dynamics Approach

The rapid growth of the digital economy has heightened concerns over its environmental impacts, particularly in terms of carbon dioxide emissions. In contrast to previous studies that focus on the positive effects of digital technology on reducing carbon emissions, this paper provides a detailed analysis of the various factors that influence digital economy carbon emissions and their interrelationships, using the system dynamics method to simulate and predict China’s future digital economy carbon emission baseline from 2016 to 2046. Four different scenarios were established by adjusting parameters for the percentage of the digital economy, e-waste growth rate, and data center power consumption. The simulation results indicate the following: (1) The baseline scenario shows China’s digital economy carbon emissions peaking at 1.9045 billion tons in 2041 after an initial increase and subsequent decrease. (2) Single-policy simulations indicate that changing the digital economy’s scale and e-waste growth independently leads to peak emissions of 1.9205 billion tons and 1.5525 billion tons, respectively. Adjusting data center power consumption has a greater impact, increasing the peak emissions to 2.1675 billion tons, a 13.82% rise from the baseline. (3) Under the comprehensive regulation scenario, emissions peak in 2040 at 2.0813 billion tons, considering the interactions between the digital economy, data center power, and e-waste. Based on the findings, we recommend fostering innovation in the digital industry, enhancing the e-waste treatment process, strategically developing digital infrastructure, and exploring effective carbon reduction strategies for the digital economy aimed at supporting China in achieving its dual-carbon goals.