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Key Ratios for Long-Term Prediction of Hotel Financial Distress and Corporate Default: Survival Analysis for an Economic Stagnation

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  • Antonio Pelaez-Verdet

    (Department of Business and Economics, University of Málaga, 29016 Málaga, Spain)

  • Pilar Loscertales-Sanchez

    (Department of Business and Economics, University of Málaga, 29016 Málaga, Spain)

Abstract

Hospitality companies often face economic crises, which stress their financial structure. In 2008, Spanish hotels were jeopardized when the travelers’ flows became stagnated, in either domestic and foreign markets. Most of them overcame the crisis, but not all, in part depending on their capital structure at the moment the downturn loomed upon them. This study analyzes the financial ratios registered in 2008 by 3.341 Spanish lodging enterprises, to find out the most relevant ratios that were associated with an eventual breakdown. The analyzed ratios have been largely suggested by previous literature for anticipating financial distress; however, using survival tables and Kaplan–Meier estimates we could also find new insights about several promising variates for future research. In the end, by performing a Cox regression, we could isolate the return on capital employed (ROCE) ratio as a long-term predictor for small hotels’ bankruptcy after a market downturn. Moreover, the legal status seems to be a key predictor concerning medium-sized hotels.

Suggested Citation

  • Antonio Pelaez-Verdet & Pilar Loscertales-Sanchez, 2021. "Key Ratios for Long-Term Prediction of Hotel Financial Distress and Corporate Default: Survival Analysis for an Economic Stagnation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-17, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:13:y:2021:i:3:p:1473-:d:490491
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    2. Iftikhar Ahmad & Izlin Ismail & Shahrin Saaid Shaharuddin, 2021. "Predictive Role of Ex Ante Strategic Firm Characteristics for Sustainable Initial Public Offering (IPO) Survival," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-26, July.
    3. Katarina Valaskova & Tomas Kliestik & Dominika Gajdosikova, 2021. "Distinctive determinants of financial indebtedness: evidence from Slovak and Czech enterprises," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 16(3), pages 639-659, September.
    4. Tijana Matejić & Snežana Knežević & Vesna Bogojević Arsić & Tijana Obradović & Stefan Milojević & Miljan Adamović & Aleksandra Mitrović & Marko Milašinović & Dragoljub Simonović & Goran Milošević & Ma, 2022. "Assessing the Impact of the COVID-19 Crisis on Hotel Industry Bankruptcy Risk through Novel Forecasting Models," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-44, April.

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