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An Empirical Investigation of Firm Longevity: A Model of the Ex Ante Predictors of Financial Distress

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  • Turetsky, Howard F
  • McEwen, Ruth Ann

Abstract

Empirical models of a potential failure process that incorporate distress states between the extremes of corporate health and bankruptcy are uncommon. We depict financial distress as a series of financial events that reflect varied stages of corporate adversity. Our intent is to provide information regarding the influence of certain risk dimensions and firm-specific attributes on distressed firm survival over time. Within a theorized distress framework, we utilize the techniques of survival analysis to longitudinally track firms, grouped a priori according to an initial decline in operating cash flows. We find that the event of default has a significant positive association with business failure. Further, we document that the significant accounting covariates tend to change conditional on a firm having progressed through the diverse stages of distress. These findings accentuate the heterogeneous nature of financial distress and potential business failure. Copyright 2001 by Kluwer Academic Publishers

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  • Turetsky, Howard F & McEwen, Ruth Ann, 2001. "An Empirical Investigation of Firm Longevity: A Model of the Ex Ante Predictors of Financial Distress," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 323-343, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:rqfnac:v:16:y:2001:i:4:p:323-43
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    Cited by:

    1. Edward I. Altman & Marco Balzano & Alessandro Giannozzi & Stjepan Srhoj, 2023. "Revisiting SME default predictors: The Omega Score," Journal of Small Business Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 61(6), pages 2383-2417, November.
    2. Bradai Houda, 2008. "Détresse Financière et restructurations des structures de Gouvernance : Une Analyse de Survie," Post-Print halshs-00522403, HAL.
    3. Tsung-Kang Chen & Hsien-Hsing Liao & Chia-Wu Lu, 2011. "A flow-based corporate credit model," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 36(4), pages 517-532, May.
    4. Luca Ianni & Gianluca Marullo & Stefania Migliori & Francesco De Luca, 2021. "I modelli predittivi della crisi e dell?insolvenza aziendale. Una systematic review," MANAGEMENT CONTROL, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2021(2), pages 127-146.
    5. Li, Xia & Gupta, Jairaj & Bu, Ziwen & Kannothra, Chacko George, 2023. "Effect of cash flow risk on corporate failures, and the moderating role of earnings management and abnormal compensation," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    6. Tamara Ayœs, Armando Lenin & Villegas, Gladis Cecilia & Leones Castro, María Cristina & Salazar Bocanegra, Juan Antonio, 2018. "Modelaci—n del riesgo de insolvencia en empresas del sector salud empleando modelos logit || Modeling of Insolvency Risk in Health Sector Companies Using Logit Models," Revista de Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa = Journal of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, vol. 26(1), pages 128-145, Diciembre.
    7. João Teixeira, 2014. "Outsourcing with long term contracts: capital structure and product market competition effects," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 42(2), pages 327-356, February.
    8. Idrees, Sahar & Qayyum, Abdul, 2018. "The Impact of Financial Distress Risk on Equity Returns: A Case Study of Non-Financial Firms of Pakistan Stock Exchange," MPRA Paper 85346, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Francesco Ciampi & Valentina Cillo & Fabio Fiano, 2020. "Combining Kohonen maps and prior payment behavior for small enterprise default prediction," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 1007-1039, April.
    10. Cochran, James J. & Darrat, Ali F. & Elkhal, Khaled, 2006. "On the bankruptcy of internet companies: An empirical inquiry," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 59(10-11), pages 1193-1200, October.
    11. Florian Maier & B. Burcin Yurtoglu, 2022. "Board Characteristics and the Insolvency Risk of Non-Financial Firms," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-19, July.
    12. Re-Jin Guo & Nan Zhou, 2016. "Innovation capability and post-IPO performance," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 335-357, February.
    13. Antonio Pelaez-Verdet & Pilar Loscertales-Sanchez, 2021. "Key Ratios for Long-Term Prediction of Hotel Financial Distress and Corporate Default: Survival Analysis for an Economic Stagnation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-17, January.

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