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Sustainable Determinants That Affect Tourist Arrival Forecasting

Author

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  • Sergej Gricar

    (Faculty of Business and Management, University of Novo Mesto, Na Loko 2, 8000 Novo Mesto, Slovenia
    Faculty of Tourism and Hospitality Management, University of Rijeka, Primorska 46, p.p. 97, 51410 Opatija, Croatia)

  • Tea Baldigara

    (Faculty of Tourism and Hospitality Management, University of Rijeka, Primorska 46, p.p. 97, 51410 Opatija, Croatia)

  • Violeta Šugar

    (Faculty of Economics and Tourism “Dr. Mijo Mirković”, Juraj Dobrila University of Pula, Zagrebačka 30, 52100 Pula, Croatia)

Abstract

This study considers diversification effects and significant influences on tourist arrivals as a vital export direction. Different quantitative methods, namely a cointegrated-autoregressive model, panels, sentiment and sensitivity analysis, were used in this study. The time-series data for Croatia and Slovenia were isolated from several secondary sources. The variables examined in this approach are tourist arrivals, precipitations, sunny days, earthquakes, microbes and CO 2 emissions. The study results showed that there is a severe negative effect on tourist arrivals defined by viruses. Moreover, there is a significant decisive effect of weather conditions on tourist arrivals. Nevertheless, it is necessary to move past Covid-19 pandemic discussions to yield more accurate tourism supply forecasts, while demand is already somehow low since the beginning of 2020. The primary significance is to develop a broader thinking about the impacts of CO 2 emissions on the tourism escorted to official tourist websites.

Suggested Citation

  • Sergej Gricar & Tea Baldigara & Violeta Šugar, 2021. "Sustainable Determinants That Affect Tourist Arrival Forecasting," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-24, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:13:y:2021:i:17:p:9659-:d:623516
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Sergej Gricar & Violeta Šugar & Jasmina Starc, 2023. "Interrelationships among Tourism, Economic, and Environmental Time Series—The Case of Slovenia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-20, October.
    3. Vijay Kumar & Hammam Alshazly & Sahar Ahmed Idris & Sami Bourouis, 2021. "Evaluating the Impact of COVID-19 on Society, Environment, Economy, and Education," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(24), pages 1-21, December.
    4. Lukas Cibik & Leon Richvalsky, 2023. "The Economy of EU Member Countries in 2020 from Perspective of Magic Square," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 8, pages 3-21.
    5. Sergej Gričar & Štefan Bojnec, 2022. "Did Human Microbes Affect Tourist Arrivals before the COVID-19 Shock? Pre-Effect Forecasting Model for Slovenia," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(20), pages 1-15, October.
    6. Sergej Gričar & Violeta Šugar, 2021. "Sustainable Consumption Using the Example of Food Processing in a Restaurant," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(24), pages 1-28, December.
    7. Mirela Tase & Enkeleda Lulaj, 2022. "The Effect of Perceptions on Tourism: An Econometric Analysis of the Impacts and Opportunities for Economic and Financial Development in Albania and Kosovo," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-29, June.
    8. Gergely Szolnoki & Susan Bail & Maximilian Tafel & Aron Feher & Cristina Veith, 2022. "A Cross-Cultural Comparison of New Implemented Sustainable Wine Tourism Strategies during the COVID-19 Crisis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-16, April.
    9. Fengting Zhang & Md Nazirul Islam Sarker & Yang Lv, 2022. "Coupling Coordination of the Regional Economy, Tourism Industry, and the Ecological Environment: Evidence from Western China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-19, January.

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