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Going Viral: A Gravity Model of Infectious Diseases and Tourism Flows

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  • Mr. Serhan Cevik

Abstract

This paper develops a gravity model framework to estimate the impact of infectious diseases on bilateral tourism flows among 38,184 pairs of countries over the period 1995–2017. The results confirm that international tourism is adversely affected by disease risk, and the magnitude of this negative effect is statistically and economically significant. In the case of SARS, for example, a 10 percent rise in confirmed cases leads to a reduction of as much as 9 percent in tourist arrivals. Furthermore, while infectious diseases appear to have a smaller and statistically insignificant negative effect on tourism flows to advanced economies, the magnitude and statistical significance of the impact of infectious diseases are much greater in developing countries, where such diseases tend to be more prevalent and health infrastructure lags behind.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Serhan Cevik, 2020. "Going Viral: A Gravity Model of Infectious Diseases and Tourism Flows," IMF Working Papers 2020/112, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2020/112
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    Cited by:

    1. Sergej Gricar & Tea Baldigara & Violeta Šugar, 2021. "Sustainable Determinants That Affect Tourist Arrival Forecasting," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-24, August.
    2. Filippo Simini & Gianni Barlacchi & Massimilano Luca & Luca Pappalardo, 2021. "A Deep Gravity model for mobility flows generation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-13, December.
    3. Shastri, Shruti, 2022. "The impact of infectious diseases on remittances inflows to India," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 83-95.
    4. Zhenrao Cai & Dan Gao & Xin Xiao & Linguo Zhou & Chaoyang Fang, 2023. "The Flow of Green Exercise, Its Characteristics, Mechanism, and Pattern in Urban Green Space Networks: A Case Study of Nangchang, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-19, March.
    5. Valerio Della Corte & Claudio Doria & Giacomo Oddo, 2023. "The impact of COVID‐19 on international tourism flows to Italy: Evidence from mobile phone data," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(5), pages 1378-1407, May.
    6. Serhan Cevik, 2025. "Long live globalization: geopolitical shocks and international trade," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 1-20, May.
    7. Malaj, Emi & Malaj, Visar, 2023. "Determinants of international tourism: Empirical evidence from three Mediterranean countries," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 9(2), pages 66-72.
    8. Stefan Goldbach & Volker Nitsch, 2022. "Covid-19 and Capital Flows: The Responses of Investors to the Responses of Governments," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 33(4), pages 751-774, September.
    9. Ioannis-Panagiotis Varzakas & Theodore Metaxas, 2024. "Pandemic and Economy: An Econometric Analysis Investigating the Impact of COVID-19 on the Global Tourism Market," Tourism and Hospitality, MDPI, vol. 5(2), pages 1-14, April.

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