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Scenario Simulation of the Impact of China’s Free-Trade Zone Construction on Regional Sustainable Development: A Case Study of the Pearl River Delta Urban Agglomeration

Author

Listed:
  • Xiaofei Liu

    (Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China)

  • Zhenbo Wang

    (Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China)

  • Xuegang Cui

    (Post-Doctoral Research Station of Theoretical Economics, Shenzhen University, Shenzhen 518060, China
    Qianhai Institute for Innovative Research, Shenzhen 518052, China)

Abstract

Regional sustainable development is a complex process driven by multiple factors, such as the economy, society, and environment. China has made a series of major adjustments and devised plans, including the establishment of a pilot free-trade zone, to promote regional sustainable development. The pilot free-trade zone, characterized by free trade and the opening up of institutions, changes the path and mode of regional sustainable development to a certain extent. However, an effective empirical quantitative analysis to verify the impact of the pilot free-trade zone on regional sustainable development is lacking. This paper employs the system dynamics method to predict the social–economic–environmental development trends and key control factors of the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration by considering the unique advantages of system dynamics. The construction of a pilot free-trade zone was set as a control variable to analyze its promoting effect on regional sustainable development. Next, the most suitable model for sustainable development for the future was determined. The results indicate that the construction of the pilot free-trade zone led to significant growth in indicators such as import and export trade, total economic volume, income, and labor force, all of which are conducive to regional sustainable development. Practically, the simulation results provide decision support for promoting the sustainable development of the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiaofei Liu & Zhenbo Wang & Xuegang Cui, 2021. "Scenario Simulation of the Impact of China’s Free-Trade Zone Construction on Regional Sustainable Development: A Case Study of the Pearl River Delta Urban Agglomeration," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-16, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:13:y:2021:i:14:p:8083-:d:597547
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    1. Hang Zhang & Nurguli Abdusuli, 2024. "Ecological niche measurement and high-quality development of "the Belt and Road" core area," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 19(5), pages 1-19, May.
    2. Guan, Chenghua & Huang, Jinyuan & Jiang, Ruyue & Xu, Wanting, 2023. "The impact of pilot free trade zone on service industry structure upgrading," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 472-491.
    3. Yanjun Chang & Shuai Wang, 2025. "China’s pilot free trade zone and high-quality economic development: the mediation effect of data real integration and the regulating effect of technological innovation," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 27(12), pages 29847-29885, December.

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