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GFPMX: A Cobweb Model of the Global Forest Sector, with an Application to the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic

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  • Joseph Buongiorno

    (Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI 53705, USA)

Abstract

The GFPMX projects forest area and stock, consumption, production, imports, exports, and prices of industrial roundwood, fuelwood, sawnwood, wood-based panels, wood pulp, and paper and paperboard in 180 countries, and currently from 2018 to 2070. The core principle of the model is the cobweb theorem, according to which markets are not necessarily in equilibrium, but take some time to adjust to shocks—such as demand shifts—leading to oscillatory dynamics of prices and quantities. This paper presents the model’s structure and the estimation of its parameters from international statistics on production, trade, forest area, and forest stock. This is followed by an application of the GFPMX to the impact on the global forest sector of the economic recession caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Suggested Citation

  • Joseph Buongiorno, 2021. "GFPMX: A Cobweb Model of the Global Forest Sector, with an Application to the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-18, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:13:y:2021:i:10:p:5507-:d:554783
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Latta, Gregory S. & Sjølie, Hanne K. & Solberg, Birger, 2013. "A review of recent developments and applications of partial equilibrium models of the forest sector," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 350-360.
    2. Buongiorno, Joseph, 2019. "Country-specific demand elasticities for forest products: Estimation method and consequences for long term projections," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 1-1.
    3. Mordecai Ezekiel, 1938. "The Cobweb Theorem," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 52(2), pages 255-280.
    4. Dinda, Soumyananda, 2004. "Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis: A Survey," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 431-455, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Guo, Jinggang & Prestemon, Jeffrey & Johnston, Craig, 2023. "Forest market outlook in the Southern United States," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    2. A. I. Pyzhev, 2022. "The Forest Industry of the Regions of Siberia and the Far East: Prospects for the Development of the Forest-Climate Sector," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 33(4), pages 402-408, August.
    3. Martínez-Cortés, Oscar Geovani & Kant, Shashi & Isufllari, Henrieta, 2024. "Forest sector models for tropical countries - A case study of Colombia," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    4. Prestemon, Jeffrey P. & Guo, Jinggang, 2024. "Markets: An Analysis to Support the Southern Forest Outlook," USDA Miscellaneous 361280, United States Department of Agriculture.

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