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Exploring the Driving Forces and Reduction Potential of Industrial Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions during 2001–2030: A Case Study for Henan Province, China

Author

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  • Lei Liu

    (College of Chemistry and Molecular Engineering, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, China
    Research Institute of Environmental Science, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, China)

  • Ke Wang

    (College of Chemistry and Molecular Engineering, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, China
    Research Institute of Environmental Science, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, China)

  • Shanshan Wang

    (College of Chemistry and Molecular Engineering, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, China
    Research Institute of Environmental Science, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, China)

  • Ruiqin Zhang

    (College of Chemistry and Molecular Engineering, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, China
    Research Institute of Environmental Science, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, China)

  • Xiaoyan Tang

    (Research Institute of Environmental Science, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, China)

Abstract

In China, the industrial sector is the main contributor to economic development and CO 2 emissions, especially for the developing regional provinces. This study employs the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) approach to decompose industrial energy-related CO 2 emission into eight factors during 2001–2015 for Henan Province. Furthermore, the future CO 2 emissions under different scenarios (Business as Usual (BAU), Efficiency Improvement (EI), Structural Optimization (SO), R&D Input (RD), and Comprehensive Policy (CP) scenarios) over 2016–2030 are projected. The results indicate that among these factors, the economic output, R&D intensity, investment intensity, and energy structure are the drivers for increasing CO 2 emissions over the entire period, with the contribution of 293, 83, 80, and 1% of the total CO 2 emissions changes, respectively. Conversely, the energy intensity, R&D efficiency, and industrial internal structure can decrease CO 2 emissions with contributions of –86, –163, and –108% to the changes, respectively. Under the five scenarios, CO 2 emissions in 2030 will reach 1222, 1079, 793, 987, and 638 Mt with an annual growth rate of 4.7%, 3.8%, 1.8%, 3.3%, and 0.4%, respectively. In particular, the CO 2 emission peak for SO and CP scenarios is observed before 2030. Finally, some policy implications are suggested to further mitigate industrial emissions.

Suggested Citation

  • Lei Liu & Ke Wang & Shanshan Wang & Ruiqin Zhang & Xiaoyan Tang, 2019. "Exploring the Driving Forces and Reduction Potential of Industrial Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions during 2001–2030: A Case Study for Henan Province, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-25, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:11:y:2019:i:4:p:1176-:d:208451
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