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Grains Production Prospects and Long Run Food Security in Egypt

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  • Hamdy Sayed Abdou Abdelaal

    (Agricultural Economics Department, Minia University, Minia 61111, Egypt)

  • Dawn Thilmany

    (Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523, USA)

Abstract

Egypt’s population growth, scarce resources, and a struggling economy threaten its capacity to achieve food security. Water is of particular interest at this juncture given impending development projects under increasingly uncertain climate conditions. The main objective of this research is to forecast grains production in Egypt under different productivity scenarios, based on annual data from 1980 to 2017, to estimate and forecast cultivated area. Findings suggest that the potential reduction in the Nile flows into Egypt will adversely impact agricultural production, especially during the summer season, reducing cultivated areas and decreasing crop yields. These findings suggest that Egypt’s reliance on imports will continue and grain imports will increase as the population grows and opportunities to reclaim lands remain limited. If food security and concerns about reliance on food imports persist among leaders, future policy options should focus on increasing water-use efficiency and raising productivity of both land and water.

Suggested Citation

  • Hamdy Sayed Abdou Abdelaal & Dawn Thilmany, 2019. "Grains Production Prospects and Long Run Food Security in Egypt," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(16), pages 1-17, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:11:y:2019:i:16:p:4457-:d:258552
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Rehab Osman & Emanuele Ferrari & Scott McDonald, 2016. "Water Scarcity and Irrigation Efficiency in Egypt," Water Economics and Policy (WEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 2(04), pages 1-28, December.
    2. Rachit Saxena & Sai Kranthi Vanga & Jin Wang & Valérie Orsat & Vijaya Raghavan, 2018. "Millets for Food Security in the Context of Climate Change: A Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-31, June.
    3. Mabhaudhi, T. & Mpandeli, S. & Nhamo, Luxon & Chimonyo, V. G. P. & Nhemachena, Charles & Senzanje, A. & Naidoo, D. & Modi, A. T., 2018. "Prospects for improving irrigated agriculture in Southern Africa: linking water, energy and food," Papers published in Journals (Open Access), International Water Management Institute, pages 10(12):1-16.
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    Cited by:

    1. Noha H. Moghazy & Jagath J. Kaluarachchi, 2021. "Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Development in a Closed Groundwater-Driven Basin: A Case Study of the Siwa Region, Western Desert of Egypt," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-21, February.
    2. Lili Gan & Xiangling Hu & Jaideep Motwani, 2024. "Enhancing Agricultural Ecology and Food Sustainability in the Yangtze River Economic Belt: An Integrated Evaluation Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(23), pages 1-25, December.
    3. Sattar, Aimen & Brown, Calum & Rounsevell, Mark & Alexander, Peter, 2024. "Typology analysis of Egyptian agricultural households reveals increasing income diversification and abandonment of agricultural activities," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 218(C).
    4. Rui Zhao & Kening Wu & Xiaoliang Li & Nan Gao & Mingming Yu, 2021. "Discussion on the Unified Survey and Evaluation of Cultivated Land Quality at County Scale for China’s 3rd National Land Survey: A Case Study of Wen County, Henan Province," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-26, February.
    5. Maria Christoforidou & Gerlo Borghuis & Chris Seijger & Gerardo E. Halsema & Petra Hellegers, 2023. "Food security under water scarcity: a comparative analysis of Egypt and Jordan," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 15(1), pages 171-185, February.
    6. Elbeltagi, Ahmed & Deng, Jinsong & Wang, Ke & Malik, Anurag & Maroufpoor, Saman, 2020. "Modeling long-term dynamics of crop evapotranspiration using deep learning in a semi-arid environment," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    7. Hassan A. A. Sayed & Qishuo Ding & Mahmoud A. Abdelhamid & Joseph O. Alele & Alfadhl Y. Alkhaled & Mohamed Refai, 2022. "Application of Machine Learning to Study the Agricultural Mechanization of Wheat Farms in Egypt," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-18, December.

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