IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v13y2021i3p1578-d492008.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Development in a Closed Groundwater-Driven Basin: A Case Study of the Siwa Region, Western Desert of Egypt

Author

Listed:
  • Noha H. Moghazy

    (Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Utah State University, Logan, UT 84322, USA
    Irrigation Engineering and Hydraulics Department, Faculty of Engineering, Alexandria University, Alexandria 21544, Egypt)

  • Jagath J. Kaluarachchi

    (College of Engineering, Utah State University, Logan, UT 84322, USA)

Abstract

The Siwa region located in the Western Desert of Egypt has 30,000 acres available for reclamation as a part of a national project to increase agricultural production. This study addressed the climate change-driven long-term concerns of developing an agricultural project in this region where groundwater from the non-renewable Nubian Sandstone Aquifer System (NSAS) is the only source of water. Different climate models were used under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs); RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Projected seasonal temperatures show that the maximum increase in summer is 1.68 ± 1.64 °C in 2060 and 4.65 ± 1.82 °C in 2100 under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively. The increase in water requirement for crops is estimated around 6–8.1% under RCP 4.5 while around 9.7–18.2% under RCP 8.5. Maximum reductions of strategic crop yields vary from 2.9% to 12.8% in 2060 under RCP 4.5, while from 10.4% to 27.4% in 2100 under RCP 8.5. Project goals are feasible until 2100 under RCP 4.5 but only until 2080 with RCP 8.5. When an optimization analysis was conducted, these goals are possible from 2080 to 2100 by modified land allocation. The proposed methodology is useful to project impact of climate change anywhere such that management and adaptation options can be proposed for sustainable agricultural development.

Suggested Citation

  • Noha H. Moghazy & Jagath J. Kaluarachchi, 2021. "Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Development in a Closed Groundwater-Driven Basin: A Case Study of the Siwa Region, Western Desert of Egypt," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-21, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:13:y:2021:i:3:p:1578-:d:492008
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/3/1578/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/3/1578/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alvaro Calzadilla & Katrin Rehdanz & Richard Betts & Pete Falloon & Andy Wiltshire & Richard Tol, 2013. "Climate change impacts on global agriculture," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 120(1), pages 357-374, September.
    2. Noha H. Moghazy & Jagath J. Kaluarachchi, 2020. "Sustainable Agriculture Development in the Western Desert of Egypt: A Case Study on Crop Production, Profit, and Uncertainty in the Siwa Region," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-23, August.
    3. Hamdy Sayed Abdou Abdelaal & Dawn Thilmany, 2019. "Grains Production Prospects and Long Run Food Security in Egypt," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(16), pages 1-17, August.
    4. Amin Daghighi & Ali Nahvi & Ungtae Kim, 2017. "Optimal Cultivation Pattern to Increase Revenue and Reduce Water Use: Application of Linear Programming to Arjan Plain in Fars Province," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 7(9), pages 1-11, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jason F.L. Koopman & Onno Kuik & Richard S.J. Tol & Roy Brouwer, 2015. "Water Scarcity From Climate Change And Adaptation Response In An International River Basin Context," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 6(01), pages 1-22.
    2. Zvi Baum & Ruslana Rachel Palatnik & Iddo Kan & Mickey Rapaport-Rom, 2016. "Economic Impacts of Water Scarcity Under Diverse Water Salinities," Water Economics and Policy (WEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 2(01), pages 1-22, March.
    3. Sheng, Yu & Zhao, Shiji & Yang, Sansi, 2021. "Weather shocks, adaptation and agricultural TFP: A cross-region comparison of Australian Broadacre farms," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    4. Asfaw, S., 2018. "Market Participation, Weather Shocks and Welfare: Evidence from Malawi," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 277029, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    5. Victor Nechifor & Matthew Winning, 2017. "The impacts of higher CO2 concentrations over global crop production and irrigation water requirements," EcoMod2017 10487, EcoMod.
    6. Mikémina, Pilo & Gerber, Nicolas & Wünscher, Tobias, 2018. "Impacts of Adaptation to Climate Change on farmers’ income in the Savana Region of Togo," Discussion Papers 271152, University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF).
    7. Maamoun, Nada & Grünhagen, Caroline & Ward, Hauke & Kornek, Ulrike, 2024. "A Seat at the Table: Distributional impacts of food-price increases due to climate change," EconStor Preprints 281165, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    8. Severen, Christopher & Costello, Christopher & Deschênes, Olivier, 2018. "A Forward-Looking Ricardian Approach: Do land markets capitalize climate change forecasts?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 235-254.
    9. Chen, Xiaoguang & Cui, Xiaomeng & Gao, Jing, 2023. "Differentiated Agricultural Sensitivity and Adaptability to Rising Temperatures across Regions and Sectors in China," 2023 Annual Meeting, July 23-25, Washington D.C. 335522, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    10. Hasan, Dudu & Erol, Cakmak, 2014. "Climate Change, Agriculture And Trade Liberalization: A Dynamic Cge Analysis For Turkey," 2014 Third Congress, June 25-27, 2014, Alghero, Italy 172964, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA).
    11. Yuquan W. Zhang & Jianhong E. Mu & Mark Musumba & Bruce A. McCarl & Xiaokun Gu & Yuanfei Zhou & Zhengwei Cao & Qiang Li, 2018. "The Role of Climate Factors in Shaping China’s Crop Mix: An Empirical Exploration," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-17, October.
    12. Mohannad Alobid & Bilal Derardja & István Szűcs, 2021. "Food Gap Optimization for Sustainability Concerns, the Case of Egypt," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-17, March.
    13. Aziza Irhza & Laila Nassiri & Moussa El Jarroudi & Fouad Rachidi & Rachid Lahlali & Ghizlane Echchgadda, 2023. "Description of the Gap between Local Agricultural Practices and Agroecological Soil Management Tools in Zerhoun and in the Middle Atlas Areas of Morocco," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-17, January.
    14. Ernest Acheampong & Nicholas Ozor & Eric Owusu, 2014. "Vulnerability assessment of Northern Ghana to climate variability," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 126(1), pages 31-44, September.
    15. Anil Markandya, 2017. "State of Knowledge on Climate Change, Water, and Economics," World Bank Publications - Reports 26491, The World Bank Group.
    16. Escalante, Luis Enrique & Maisonnave, Helene, 2022. "Impacts of climate disasters on women and food security in Bolivia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    17. Ruchie Pathak & Nicholas R. Magliocca, 2022. "Assessing the Representativeness of Irrigation Adoption Studies: A Meta-Study of Global Research," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-31, December.
    18. Valenzuela, Ernesto & Anderson, Kym, 2011. "Climate change and food security to 2030: a global economy-wide perspective," Economia Agraria y Recursos Naturales, Spanish Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 11(01), pages 1-30, November.
    19. Elbeltagi, Ahmed & Deng, Jinsong & Wang, Ke & Malik, Anurag & Maroufpoor, Saman, 2020. "Modeling long-term dynamics of crop evapotranspiration using deep learning in a semi-arid environment," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    20. Daniel Heyen & Thilo Wiertz & Peter Irvine, 2015. "Regional disparities in SRM impacts: the challenge of diverging preferences," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 133(4), pages 557-563, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:13:y:2021:i:3:p:1578-:d:492008. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.