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Reliability–Resiliency–Vulnerability Approach for Drought Analysis in South Korea Using 28 GCMs

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  • Jang Hyun Sung

    (Han River Flood Control Office, Ministry of Environment, Seoul 06501, Korea)

  • Eun-Sung Chung

    (Faculty of Civil Engineering, Department of Civil Engineering, Seoul National University of Science and Technology, Seoul 01811, Korea)

  • Shamsuddin Shahid

    (Faculty of Civil Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM), Johor Bahru 81310, Malaysia)

Abstract

This study developed a Reliability–Resiliency–Vulnerability (R–R–V) approach that aggregates the frequency, duration, and severity of droughts estimated using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). This approach was used to analyze the characteristics of droughts for the current (1976–2005) and the future (2010–2099) climates. The future climate data obtained from 28 general circulation models (GCMs) of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) was divided into three general periods: Future 1: 2010–2039, Future 2: 2040–2069; and Future 3: 2070–2099. As a result, aggregation R–R–V representing water availability would increase during Future 1, and then gradually decrease until the end of the century. The frequencies of future drought events for Future 2 and Future 3 were similar to the current frequency, while the durations will be longer and the severity will be higher at most locations during Future 3. Thus, the mean of R–R–V over South Korea is expected to decrease, except for Future 1, and the spatial variability of R–R–V is expected to increase. In the end, the changes in the mean and variance of rainfall and temperature would lead to a decrease in the mean and increase in the spatial variation of sustainability in South Korea. This approach and its results can be used to establish a long-term drought strategy for regions where the risk of future drought is expected to increase.

Suggested Citation

  • Jang Hyun Sung & Eun-Sung Chung & Shamsuddin Shahid, 2018. "Reliability–Resiliency–Vulnerability Approach for Drought Analysis in South Korea Using 28 GCMs," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-16, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:10:y:2018:i:9:p:3043-:d:166033
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    1. Allison Thomson & Katherine Calvin & Steven Smith & G. Kyle & April Volke & Pralit Patel & Sabrina Delgado-Arias & Ben Bond-Lamberty & Marshall Wise & Leon Clarke & James Edmonds, 2011. "RCP4.5: a pathway for stabilization of radiative forcing by 2100," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 77-94, November.
    2. Nam, Won-Ho & Hayes, Michael J. & Svoboda, Mark D. & Tadesse, Tsegaye & Wilhite, Donald A., 2015. "Drought hazard assessment in the context of climate change for South Korea," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 106-117.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Mohammad Ahsan Uddin & ASM Maksud Kamal & Shamsuddin Shahid & Eun-Sung Chung, 2020. "Volatility in Rainfall and Predictability of Droughts in Northwest Bangladesh," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-20, November.
    3. Mahiuddin Alamgir & Morteza Mohsenipour & Rajab Homsi & Xiaojun Wang & Shamsuddin Shahid & Mohammed Sanusi Shiru & Nor Eliza Alias & Ali Yuzir, 2019. "Parametric Assessment of Seasonal Drought Risk to Crop Production in Bangladesh," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-17, March.
    4. Jang Hyun Sung & Minsung Kwon & Jong-June Jeon & Seung Beom Seo, 2019. "A Projection of Extreme Precipitation Based on a Selection of CMIP5 GCMs over North Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-17, April.
    5. Mohammed Sanusi Shiru & Shamsuddin Shahid & Inhwan Park, 2021. "Projection of Water Availability and Sustainability in Nigeria Due to Climate Change," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-16, June.
    6. Jin Hyuck Kim & Jang Hyun Sung & Eun-Sung Chung & Sang Ug Kim & Minwoo Son & Mohammed Sanusi Shiru, 2021. "Comparison of Projection in Meteorological and Hydrological Droughts in the Cheongmicheon Watershed for RCP4.5 and SSP2-4.5," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-22, February.
    7. Mohamed Salem Nashwan & Shamsuddin Shahid & Eun-Sung Chung, 2020. "High-Resolution Climate Projections for a Densely Populated Mediterranean Region," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-22, May.

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