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Projection of Water Availability and Sustainability in Nigeria Due to Climate Change

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  • Mohammed Sanusi Shiru

    (Department of Civil Engineering, Seoul National University of Science and Technology, Seoul 01811, Korea
    Department of Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Science, Federal University Dutse, Dutse P.M.B 7156, Nigeria)

  • Shamsuddin Shahid

    (Department of Water and Environmental Engineering, School of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM), Johor Bahru 81310, Malaysia)

  • Inhwan Park

    (Department of Civil Engineering, Seoul National University of Science and Technology, Seoul 01811, Korea)

Abstract

This study projects water availability and sustainability in Nigeria due to climate change. This study used Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) terrestrial water storage data (TWS), Global Precipitation Climatology Center (GPCC) precipitation data and Climate Research Unit (CRU) temperature data. Four general circulation models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 were downscaled using the best of four downscaling methods. Two machine learning (ML) models, RF and SVM, were developed to simulate GRACE TWS data for the period 2002–2016 and were then used for the projection of spatiotemporal changes in TWS. The projected TWS data were used to assess the spatiotemporal changes in water availability and sustainability based on the reliability–resiliency–vulnerability (RRV) concept. This study revealed that linear scaling was the best for downscaling over Nigeria. RF had better performance than SVM in modeling TWS for the study area. This study also revealed there would be decreases in water storage during the wet season (June–September) and increases in the dry season (January–May). Decreases in projected water availability were in the range of 0–12 mm for the periods 2010–2039, 2040–2069, and 2070–2099 under RCP2.6 and in the range of 0–17 mm under RCP8.5 during the wet season. Spatially, annual changes in water storage are expected to increase in the northern part and decrease in the south, particularly in the country’s southeast. Groundwater sustainability was higher during the period 2070–2099 under all RCPs compared to the other periods and this can be attributed to the expected increases in rainfall during this period.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohammed Sanusi Shiru & Shamsuddin Shahid & Inhwan Park, 2021. "Projection of Water Availability and Sustainability in Nigeria Due to Climate Change," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-16, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:13:y:2021:i:11:p:6284-:d:567468
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mohammed Sanusi Shiru & Shamsuddin Shahid & Noraliani Alias & Eun-Sung Chung, 2018. "Trend Analysis of Droughts during Crop Growing Seasons of Nigeria," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-13, March.
    2. Pieter Oel & Dawit Mulatu & Vincent Odongo & Frank Meins & Rick Hogeboom & Robert Becht & Alfred Stein & Japheth Onyando & Anne Veen, 2013. "The Effects of Groundwater and Surface Water Use on Total Water Availability and Implications for Water Management: The Case of Lake Naivasha, Kenya," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(9), pages 3477-3492, July.
    3. Detlef Vuuren & Jae Edmonds & Mikiko Kainuma & Keywan Riahi & Allison Thomson & Kathy Hibbard & George Hurtt & Tom Kram & Volker Krey & Jean-Francois Lamarque & Toshihiko Masui & Malte Meinshausen & N, 2011. "The representative concentration pathways: an overview," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 5-31, November.
    4. Salem, Golam Saleh Ahmed & Kazama, So & Shahid, Shamsuddin & Dey, Nepal C., 2018. "Impacts of climate change on groundwater level and irrigation cost in a groundwater dependent irrigated region," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 208(C), pages 33-42.
    5. Jang Hyun Sung & Eun-Sung Chung & Shamsuddin Shahid, 2018. "Reliability–Resiliency–Vulnerability Approach for Drought Analysis in South Korea Using 28 GCMs," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-16, August.
    6. Oecd, 2009. "Climate Change and Africa," OECD Journal: General Papers, OECD Publishing, vol. 2009(1), pages 5-35.
    7. Mohammad Naser Sediqi & Mohammed Sanusi Shiru & Mohamed Salem Nashwan & Rawshan Ali & Shadan Abubaker & Xiaojun Wang & Kamal Ahmed & Shamsuddin Shahid & Md. Asaduzzaman & Sayed Mir Agha Manawi, 2019. "Spatio-Temporal Pattern in the Changes in Availability and Sustainability of Water Resources in Afghanistan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(20), pages 1-17, October.
    8. Saleem A. Salman & Shamsuddin Shahid & Haitham Abdulmohsin Afan & Mohammed Sanusi Shiru & Nadhir Al-Ansari & Zaher Mundher Yaseen, 2020. "Changes in Climatic Water Availability and Crop Water Demand for Iraq Region," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-20, April.
    9. Matthew Rodell & Isabella Velicogna & James S. Famiglietti, 2009. "Satellite-based estimates of groundwater depletion in India," Nature, Nature, vol. 460(7258), pages 999-1002, August.
    10. Golam Saleh Ahmed Salem & So Kazama & Daisuke Komori & Shamsuddin Shahid & Nepal C. Dey, 2017. "Optimum Abstraction of Groundwater for Sustaining Groundwater Level and Reducing Irrigation Cost," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(6), pages 1947-1959, April.
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    2. Volkan Yilmaz & Mehmet Alpars, 2023. "An Investigation of the Temporal Interaction of Urban Water Consumption in the Framework of Settlement Characteristics," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(4), pages 1619-1639, March.
    3. Stephen Afrifa & Tao Zhang & Peter Appiahene & Vijayakumar Varadarajan, 2022. "Mathematical and Machine Learning Models for Groundwater Level Changes: A Systematic Review and Bibliographic Analysis," Future Internet, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-31, August.

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