IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jresou/v11y2022i12p118-d998991.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Global Wheat Production and Threats to Supply Chains in a Volatile Climate Change and Energy Crisis

Author

Listed:
  • Wiktor Halecki

    (Institute of Nature Conservation Polish Academy of Sciences, Mickiewicza 33, 31-120 Kraków, Poland)

  • Dawid Bedla

    (Department of Ecology, Climatology and Air Protection, Faculty of Environmental Engineering and Land Surveying, University of Agriculture in Krakow, Mickiewicza 21, 31-120 Kraków, Poland)

Abstract

As climate change and energy crises increase, NPK (nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium) fertilizer supply chains become more volatile. Globally, the Russian attack on Ukraine has caused the cost of gas to rise and fertilizer supplies to decline. This aggression may worsen the energy and wheat resource crisis in global supply chains. As a result of the escalation of hostilities, natural gas, oil, and coal prices have rapidly increased. In the years preceding the conflict, the agricultural sector had already begun to suffer, caused by unprecedented increases in the prices of natural gas and raw materials for the production of fertilizers stemming from Russian manipulation, especially in the gas market. Prior to the growing season, farmers were still unable to afford fertilizer prices. This situation will be exacerbated by the war. We can conclude from our results that European countries and the United States have high wheat production potential. Developed countries have significant nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium fertilizer resources. Ukraine has a large yield gap, ranging between 4.5 and 7 Mg/ha. Wheat supply crises can be caused by tense geopolitical affairs, including military aggression and economic embargoes. Based on this, we recommend that decision-makers focus on crop quality to increase the country’s own production.

Suggested Citation

  • Wiktor Halecki & Dawid Bedla, 2022. "Global Wheat Production and Threats to Supply Chains in a Volatile Climate Change and Energy Crisis," Resources, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-11, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jresou:v:11:y:2022:i:12:p:118-:d:998991
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2079-9276/11/12/118/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2079-9276/11/12/118/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Willeke Veninga & Rico Ihle, 2018. "Import vulnerability in the Middle East: effects of the Arab spring on Egyptian wheat trade," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 10(1), pages 183-194, February.
    2. Saskia Osendarp & Gerda Verburg & Zulfiqar Bhutta & Robert E. Black & Saskia de Pee & Cecilia Fabrizio & Derek Headey & Rebecca Heidkamp & David Laborde & Marie T. Ruel, 2022. "Act now before Ukraine war plunges millions into malnutrition," Nature, Nature, vol. 604(7907), pages 620-624, April.
    3. Ilinova, Alina & Dmitrieva, Diana & Kraslawski, Andrzej, 2021. "Influence of COVID-19 pandemic on fertilizer companies: The role of competitive advantages," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    4. Skrypnyk, Andriy & Klymenko, Nataliia & Tuzhyk, Kateryna & Galaieva, Liudmyla & Rohoza, Kostiantyn, 2021. "Prerequisites and prospects for sustainable development of grain production in Ukraine," Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, vol. 7(3), September.
    5. Miranda Svanidze & Ivan Đurić, 2021. "Global Wheat Market Dynamics: What Is the Role of the EU and the Black Sea Wheat Exporters?," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-13, August.
    6. Yan, Shicheng & Wu, You & Fan, Junliang & Zhang, Fucang & Guo, Jinjin & Zheng, Jing & Wu, Lifeng, 2022. "Quantifying grain yield, protein, nutrient uptake and utilization of winter wheat under various drip fertigation regimes," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).
    7. Miroslav Trnka & Reimund P. Rötter & Margarita Ruiz-Ramos & Kurt Christian Kersebaum & Jørgen E. Olesen & Zdeněk Žalud & Mikhail A. Semenov, 2014. "Adverse weather conditions for European wheat production will become more frequent with climate change," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 4(7), pages 637-643, July.
    8. Möhring, Niklas & Finger, Robert, 2022. "Pesticide-free but not organic: Adoption of a large-scale wheat production standard in Switzerland," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    9. Svanidze, Miranda & Đurić, Ivan, 2021. "Global wheat market dynamics: What is the role of the EU and the Black Sea wheat exporters?," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 11(8).
    10. Nathaniel D. Mueller & James S. Gerber & Matt Johnston & Deepak K. Ray & Navin Ramankutty & Jonathan A. Foley, 2012. "Closing yield gaps through nutrient and water management," Nature, Nature, vol. 490(7419), pages 254-257, October.
    11. N. M. Svetlov & S. O. Siptits & I. A. Romanenko & N. E. Evdokimova, 2019. "The Effect of Climate Change on the Location of Branches of Agriculture in Russia," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 30(4), pages 406-418, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. László Szőllősi & Adél Dorottya Erdős, 2023. "Income and Asset Situation of Companies Producing Arable Crops in the Visegrad Countries," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-20, August.
    2. Lenka Novotná & Zuzana Rowland & Svatopluk Janek, 2023. "Impacts of the war on prices of Ukrainian wheat," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 69(10), pages 404-415.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Algirdas Justinas Staugaitis & Bernardas Vaznonis, 2022. "Short-Term Speculation Effects on Agricultural Commodity Returns and Volatility in the European Market Prior to and during the Pandemic," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-26, April.
    2. Arunkumar, T. & Lim, Hyeong Woo & Denkenberger, David & Lee, Sang Joon, 2022. "A review on carbonized natural green flora for solar desalination," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    3. Rico Ihle & Ziv Bar‐Nahum & Oleg Nivievskyi & Ofir D. Rubin, 2022. "Russia’s invasion of Ukraine increased the synchronisation of global commodity prices," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 66(4), pages 775-796, October.
    4. Hanan Ali Alrteimei & Zulfa Hanan Ash’aari & Farrah Melissa Muharram, 2022. "Last Decade Assessment of the Impacts of Regional Climate Change on Crop Yield Variations in the Mediterranean Region," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-21, October.
    5. McGarraghy, Seán & Olafsdottir, Gudrun & Kazakov, Rossen & Huber, Élise & Loveluck, William & Gudbrandsdottir, Ingunn Y. & Čechura, Lukáš & Esposito, Gianandrea & Samoggia, Antonella & Aubert, Pierre-, 2022. "Conceptual system dynamics and agent-based modelling simulation of interorganisational fairness in food value chains: Research agenda and case studies," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 12(2).
    6. Florin Aliu & Jiří Kučera & Simona Hašková, 2023. "Agricultural Commodities in the Context of the Russia-Ukraine War: Evidence from Corn, Wheat, Barley, and Sunflower Oil," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 5(1), pages 1-23, March.
    7. Seán McGarraghy & Gudrun Olafsdottir & Rossen Kazakov & Élise Huber & William Loveluck & Ingunn Y. Gudbrandsdottir & Lukáš Čechura & Gianandrea Esposito & Antonella Samoggia & Pierre-Marie Aubert & Da, 2022. "Conceptual System Dynamics and Agent-Based Modelling Simulation of Interorganisational Fairness in Food Value Chains: Research Agenda and Case Studies," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-30, February.
    8. David Barling & Antonella Samoggia & Gudrun Olafsdottir, 2022. "Dynamics of Food Value Chains: Resilience, Fairness and Sustainability," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-5, May.
    9. Heikki Lehtonen & Taru Palosuo & Panu Korhonen & Xing Liu, 2018. "Higher Crop Yield Levels in the North Savo Region—Means and Challenges Indicated by Farmers and Their Close Stakeholders," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 8(7), pages 1-14, June.
    10. Cao, Juan & Zhang, Zhao & Tao, Fulu & Chen, Yi & Luo, Xiangzhong & Xie, Jun, 2023. "Forecasting global crop yields based on El Nino Southern Oscillation early signals," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    11. Ding, Yimin & Wang, Weiguang & Song, Ruiming & Shao, Quanxi & Jiao, Xiyun & Xing, Wanqiu, 2017. "Modeling spatial and temporal variability of the impact of climate change on rice irrigation water requirements in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 193(C), pages 89-101.
    12. Westhoek, Henk & Ingram, John & van Berkum, Siemen & Hajer, Maarten, 2015. "The European food system and natural resources: Impacts and Options," 148th Seminar, November 30-December 1, 2015, The Hague, The Netherlands 229279, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    13. Giacomo Falchetta & Nicolò Stevanato & Magda Moner-Girona & Davide Mazzoni & Emanuela Colombo & Manfred Hafner, 2020. "M-LED: Multi-sectoral Latent Electricity Demand Assessment for Energy Access Planning," Working Papers 2020.09, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    14. Jose Oteros & Herminia García-Mozo & Roser Botey & Antonio Mestre & Carmen Galán, 2015. "Variations in cereal crop phenology in Spain over the last twenty-six years (1986–2012)," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 130(4), pages 545-558, June.
    15. Kathrin Stenchly & Marc Victor Hansen & Katharina Stein & Andreas Buerkert & Wilhelm Loewenstein, 2018. "Income Vulnerability of West African Farming Households to Losses in Pollination Services: A Case Study from Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-12, November.
    16. Liu, Xing & Lehtonen, Heikki & Purola, Tuomo & Pavlova, Yulia & Rötter, Reimund & Palosuo, Taru, 2016. "Dynamic economic modelling of crop rotations with farm management practices under future pest pressure," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 65-76.
    17. Nicole Costa Resende Ferreira & Jarbas Honorio Miranda, 2021. "Projected changes in corn crop productivity and profitability in Parana, Brazil," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 3236-3250, March.
    18. Singh, Kuntal & McClean, Colin J. & Büker, Patrick & Hartley, Sue E. & Hill, Jane K., 2017. "Mapping regional risks from climate change for rainfed rice cultivation in India," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 76-84.
    19. Thomas M. Koutsos & Georgios C. Menexes & Andreas P. Mamolos, 2021. "The Use of Crop Yield Autocorrelation Data as a Sustainable Approach to Adjust Agronomic Inputs," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-17, February.
    20. Milica Kanjevac & Biljana Bojović & Andrija Ćirić & Milan Stanković & Dragana Jakovljević, 2022. "Seed Priming Improves Biochemical and Physiological Performance of Wheat Seedlings under Low-Temperature Conditions," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-15, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jresou:v:11:y:2022:i:12:p:118-:d:998991. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.