IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jlands/v13y2024i12p1994-d1527303.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Analysis of the Carbon Emission Trajectory and Influencing Factors of Agricultural Space Transfer: A Case Study of the Harbin-Changchun Urban Agglomeration, China

Author

Listed:
  • Xiwen Bao

    (School of Public Administration and Law, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin 150030, China)

  • Xin Wang

    (School of Public Administration and Law, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin 150030, China)

  • Ziao Ge

    (School of Public Administration and Law, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin 150030, China)

  • Jiayao Xi

    (School of Public Administration and Law, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin 150030, China)

  • Yinghui Zhao

    (School of Public Administration and Law, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin 150030, China)

Abstract

The reconstruction of land spatial planning and the increasing severity of carbon emissions pose significant challenges to carbon peak and carbon neutrality strategies. To establish low-carbon and sustainable agricultural spatial planning while achieving dual carbon strategy goals, it is essential to accurately analyze the mechanisms of agricultural spatial transfer and their carbon emission effects, as well as the key factors influencing carbon emissions from agricultural spatial transfer. Therefore, this study, based on land use remote sensing data from 2000 to 2020, proposes a carbon emission accounting system for agricultural space transfer. The carbon emission total from agricultural space transfer in the Harbin-Changchun urban agglomeration over the 20-year period is calculated using the carbon emission coefficient method. Additionally, the spatiotemporal patterns and influencing factors are analyzed using the standard deviation ellipse method and the geographical detector model. The results indicate that: (1) The agricultural space in the Harbin-Changchun urban agglomeration has increased, with a reduction in living space and an expansion of production space. Among land type conversions, the conversion between cultivated land and forest land has been the most intense. (2) The conversion of agricultural space to grassland and built-up land has been the primary source of net carbon emissions. The carbon emission center has shown a migration path characterized by “eastward movement and southward progression,” with a high-north to low-south distribution pattern. Significant carbon emission differences were observed at different spatial scales. (3) Natural environmental factors dominate the carbon emissions from agricultural space transfer, while socioeconomic and policy factors act as driving forces. Elevation is the primary factor influencing carbon emissions from agricultural space transfer. Interactions between factors generally exhibit nonlinear enhancement, with the interaction between elevation, annual precipitation, and industrial structure showing a strong explanatory power. Notably, the interactions between elevation, average annual precipitation, and industrial structure demonstrate significant explanatory power. These findings highlight the necessity for government action to balance agricultural spatial use with ecological protection and economic development, thereby providing scientific references for optimizing future land spatial structures and formulating regional carbon balance policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiwen Bao & Xin Wang & Ziao Ge & Jiayao Xi & Yinghui Zhao, 2024. "Analysis of the Carbon Emission Trajectory and Influencing Factors of Agricultural Space Transfer: A Case Study of the Harbin-Changchun Urban Agglomeration, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-25, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:13:y:2024:i:12:p:1994-:d:1527303
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/13/12/1994/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/13/12/1994/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ting Wang & Jing Wu & Jianghua Liu, 2024. "Regional Differences, Dynamic Evolution, and Convergence of Global Agricultural Energy Efficiency," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-29, August.
    2. Zhengkun Yang & Xuesong Zhang & Xiurong Hu & Xiaowen Zhou, 2024. "Spatial-Temporal Evolution of Agricultural Carbon Balance at Township Scale and Carbon Compensation Zoning: A Case Study of Guangshui City, Hubei Province," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-29, June.
    3. Acosta-Velázquez, Joanna & Ochoa-Gómez, Jonathan & Vázquez-Lule, Alma & Guevara, Mario, 2023. "Changes in mangrove coverage classification criteria could impact the conservation of mangroves in Mexico," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    4. Yan Zhou & Tao Chen & Jingjing Wang & Xiaolan Xu, 2023. "Analyzing the Factors Driving the Changes of Ecosystem Service Value in the Liangzi Lake Basin—A GeoDetector-Based Application," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-15, November.
    5. Han, Zhiming & Huang, Qiang & Huang, Shengzhi & Leng, Guoyong & Bai, Qingjun & Liang, Hao & Wang, Lu & Zhao, Jing & Fang, Wei, 2021. "Spatial-temporal dynamics of agricultural drought in the Loess Plateau under a changing environment: Characteristics and potential influencing factors," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 244(C).
    6. Wang, Qian & Zhu, Hongtao, 2024. "Combined top-down and bottom-up approach for CO2 emissions estimation in building sector of beijing: Taking new energy vehicles into consideration," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 290(C).
    7. Zhou, Ya & Shan, Yuli & Liu, Guosheng & Guan, Dabo, 2018. "Emissions and low-carbon development in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area cities and their surroundings," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 228(C), pages 1683-1692.
    8. Arce, Guadalupe & López, Luis Antonio & Guan, Dabo, 2016. "Carbon emissions embodied in international trade: The post-China era," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 1063-1072.
    9. Yishao Shi & Qianqian Yang & Liangliang Zhou & Shouzheng Shi, 2022. "Can Moderate Agricultural Scale Operations Be Developed against the Background of Plot Fragmentation and Land Dispersion? Evidence from the Suburbs of Shanghai," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-22, July.
    10. Lin, Yuancheng & Ma, Linwei & Li, Zheng & Ni, Weidou, 2023. "The carbon reduction potential by improving technical efficiency from energy sources to final services in China: An extended Kaya identity analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PE).
    11. Jiang, Guanghui & Wang, Mingzhu & Qu, Yanbo & Zhou, Dingyang & Ma, Wenqiu, 2020. "Towards cultivated land multifunction assessment in China: Applying the “influencing factors-functions-products-demands” integrated framework," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    12. Farzad Taheripour & Steffen Mueller & Isaac Emery & Omid Karami & Ehsanreza Sajedinia & Qianlai Zhuang & Michael Wang, 2024. "Biofuels Induced Land Use Change Emissions: The Role of Implemented Land Use Emission Factors," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(7), pages 1-14, March.
    13. Kimmo Lylykangas & Rebecca Cachia & Damiano Cerrone & Kaie Kriiska & Ulrich Norbisrath & Peter R. Walke & Anssi Joutsiniemi & Jukka Heinonen, 2023. "Territorial and Consumption-Based Greenhouse Gas Emissions Assessments: Implications for Spatial Planning Policies," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-29, May.
    14. Hongpeng Guo & Sidong Xie & Chulin Pan, 2021. "The Impact of Planting Industry Structural Changes on Carbon Emissions in the Three Northeast Provinces of China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(2), pages 1-20, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kai Liu & Ziyi Ni & Mei Ren & Xiaoqing Zhang, 2022. "Spatial Differences and Influential Factors of Urban Carbon Emissions in China under the Target of Carbon Neutrality," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(11), pages 1-14, May.
    2. Wenwei Hou & Fan Liu & Yanqin Zhang & Jiaying Dong & Shumeng Lin & Minhua Wang, 2024. "Research Progress and Hotspot Analysis of Low-Carbon Landscapes Based on CiteSpace Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(17), pages 1-24, September.
    3. Xiao, Huijuan & Wang, Daoping & Qi, Yu & Shao, Shuai & Zhou, Ya & Shan, Yuli, 2021. "The governance-production nexus of eco-efficiency in Chinese resource-based cities: A two-stage network DEA approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    4. Mi, Zhifu & Zhang, Yunkun & Guan, Dabo & Shan, Yuli & Liu, Zhu & Cong, Ronggang & Yuan, Xiao-Chen & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2016. "Consumption-based emission accounting for Chinese cities," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 1073-1081.
    5. Dawei Wen & Song Ma & Anlu Zhang & Xinli Ke, 2021. "Spatial Pattern Analysis of the Ecosystem Services in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area Using Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 Imagery Based on Deep Learning Method," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(13), pages 1-16, June.
    6. Wang, Xinzhi & Lin, Qingxia & Wu, Zhiyong & Zhang, Yuliang & Li, Changwen & Liu, Ji & Zhang, Shinan & Li, Songyu, 2025. "Agricultural GDP exposure to drought and its machine learning-based prediction in the Jialing River Basin, China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 307(C).
    7. Zhong, Zhangqi & Jiang, Lei & Zhou, Peng, 2018. "Transnational transfer of carbon emissions embodied in trade: Characteristics and determinants from a spatial perspective," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 858-875.
    8. Haifeng Yang & Guofang Zhai & Yifu Ge & Tong Jiang & Buda Su, 2025. "Spatial–Temporal Difference of Urban Carbon Budget and Carbon Compensation Optimization Partition from the Perspective of Spatial Planning," Land, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-19, February.
    9. Wei Wei & Jiping Wang & Libang Ma & Xufeng Wang & Binbin Xie & Junju Zhou & Haoyan Zhang, 2024. "Global Drought-Wetness Conditions Monitoring Based on Multi-Source Remote Sensing Data," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-19, January.
    10. Zou, Chenchen & Ma, Minda & Zhou, Nan & Feng, Wei & You, Kairui & Zhang, Shufan, 2023. "Toward carbon free by 2060: A decarbonization roadmap of operational residential buildings in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 277(C).
    11. Tao He & Wenya Zhang & Hanwen Zhang & Jinliang Sheng, 2023. "Estimation of Manure Emissions Issued from Different Chinese Livestock Species: Potential of Future Production," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-17, November.
    12. Li, Xiaoliang & Wu, Kening & Yang, Qijun & Hao, Shiheng & Feng, Zhe & Ma, Jinliang, 2023. "Quantitative assessment of cultivated land use intensity in Heilongjiang Province, China, 2001–2015," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    13. Mingming Zhu & Jigan Wang & Jie Zhang & Zhencheng Xing, 2022. "Urban Low-Carbon Consumption Performance Assessment: A Case Study of Yangtze River Delta Cities, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-14, August.
    14. Zhang, Zengkai & Zhang, ZhongXiang & Zhu, Kunfu, 2020. "Allocating carbon responsibility: The role of spatial production fragmentation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    15. Benoit Govoeyi & Jean-Baptiste De La Salle Tignégré & Felix Badolo & Paul Alhassan Zaato & Karamoko Sanogo & Birhanu Zemadim Birhanu, 2022. "Perceptions on Sack Gardening in Rural Areas: The Case of Vegetable Stakeholders in Koutiala and Bougouni, Mali," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-19, November.
    16. Wang, Hongyu & Ma, Rongrong & Wang, Juan & Zhang, Huizhong & Zhou, Wei, 2025. "Conserving cropland resilience space in alpine agro-pastoral ecotones: A quantitative study of Qinghai Province," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).
    17. Zhang, Yu & Hao, Zengchao & Feng, Sifang & Zhang, Xuan & Hao, Fanghua, 2022. "Changes and driving factors of compound agricultural droughts and hot events in eastern China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 263(C).
    18. Ding, Dan & Liu, Xiaoping & Xu, Xiaocong, 2024. "Projecting the future fine-resolution carbon dioxide emissions under the shared socioeconomic pathways for carbon peak evaluation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 365(C).
    19. Huwei Wen & Yupeng Liu & Yutong Liu, 2024. "Impact of Digitalization on Investment and Productivity of Manufacturing Industry: Evidence from China," SAGE Open, , vol. 14(3), pages 21582440241, September.
    20. Dang, Yuxuan & Zhao, Zhenting & Kong, Xiangbin & Lei, Ming & Liao, Yubo & Xie, Zhen & Song, Wei, 2023. "Discerning the process of cultivated land governance transition in China since the reform and opening-up-- Based on the multiple streams framework," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:13:y:2024:i:12:p:1994-:d:1527303. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.