Analyzing the Factors Driving the Changes of Ecosystem Service Value in the Liangzi Lake Basin—A GeoDetector-Based Application

The Liangzi Lake Basin (LLB) is an important ecological buffer for Wuhan’s urban agglomeration. It involves the ecological security of the middle reaches of the Yangtze River. Historical land misuse has altered the topography and impacted the ecosystem services value (ESV). Amid urbanization, it is vital to highlight changing land use methods and their effects on ESV valuation, understanding the underlying drivers comprehensively. The research is centered on the LLB as its designated study region, and utilizes remote sensing satellite data spanning from 2000 to 2020. This data is combined with a value equivalence table to quantify ESV. The GeoDetector method is employed to investigate the driving factors behind ESV fluctuations. The findings indicate a substantial shift in land use patterns within the LLB between 2000 and 2020. Notably, arable land decreased by 6.28% and water bodies decreased by 0.92%, while built-up areas expanded by 5.14% and forest land expanded by 2.05%. During this period, the LLB’s ecosystem services value decreased by approximately 2.035 billion yuan. This drop was mainly due to reduced water areas resulting from urbanization, negatively impacting the ecological regulatory services provided by these water bodies. Based on the geoprobe model, possible drivers of changes in ESV in the LLB were identified, with human activity intensity and NDVI detection results being the most obvious. The research emphasized protecting and restoring key ecological areas, like water bodies and forests, to maintain a delicate balance between the environment and socio-economic development. Additionally, they exemplify the effectiveness of ecological policies, including initiatives such as “Returning Farmland to Forest or Pasture” (RFFP), and the prohibition of lake and field reclamation.