The value of ecosystem services in arid and semi-arid regions: A multi-scenario analysis of land use simulation in the Kashgar region of Xinjiang

This study aimed to investigate the interrelationships between land use/land cover (LULC) and ecosystem services value (ESV) in arid and semi-arid regions, with a specific focus on the Kashgar region in Xinjiang, China. Four distinct development patterns (BAU, RED, ELP, and EBB) were derived using a multi-objective planning algorithm (MOP), and the relationship between LULC and ESV was analyzed using three methods: the random forest algorithm, the PLUS model, and the ecosystem service equivalence method. The findings indicated a significant projected expansion of LULC in Kashgar by 2030, primarily concentrated in arable and construction land. The ELP scenario demonstrated the lowest growth in cultivated and urbanized land, while the BAU and RED scenarios exhibited higher increments. Notably, the expansion of arable and construction land was concentrated around the urban agglomeration of the Kashgar region, whereas changes in forest land were concentrated near the Kunlun Mountains. Regarding ESV, grassland and watersheds played a significant role, accounting for 45 % and 30 % of the total, grasslands and watersheds emerge as pivotal components in supporting biodiversity, soil preservation, water regulation, and purification. The study underscores the necessity of conserving these ecosystems. This study highlights the trade-offs between economic development and ecological/environmental protection. The RED scenario, driven by rapid economic growth and urbanization, has resulted in a significant decline in ESVs, underscoring the urgency of sustainable land use practices. The MOP-PLUS-ESV model used in this study provides a powerful framework for decision makers to make informed choices in land use planning. By prioritizing a balance between economic development and ecological preservation, the model contributes to sustainable community and regional growth, emphasizing the preservation of important ecosystems. The findings suggest that Kashgar needs to adopt a sustainable land use strategy that balances economic development and ecological/environmental protection to maximize the provision and protection of ESV. The pathway emphasizes the integrated consideration of ESV, rational land use policies, and enhanced ecological protection to achieve an ecological civilization.