Progressive Framework for Analyzing Driving Mechanisms of Ecosystem Services in Resource-Exhausted Cities: A Case Study of Fushun, China

The rapid pace of urbanization has led to excessive resource consumption and worsening environmental pollution, particularly in resource-based cities, where prolonged exploitation of mineral resources has resulted in dual challenges of ecological degradation and economic imbalance. Using Fushun, a resource-exhausted city still struggling with its transformation, as a case study, this research develops a progressive analytical framework that integrates the InVEST model, optimal parameter geographic detector, and multi-scale geographically weighted regression. This framework, comprising a sequence of analytical steps—single-factor analysis, interaction-factor analysis, global regression analysis, and geographically weighted regression analysis—enables a comprehensive exploration of the driving mechanisms behind ES changes in Fushun from 2000 to 2020. The results indicate the following: (1) Significant changes in ecosystem services were observed, with water yield and soil conservation showing a fluctuating upward trend, while carbon storage and habitat quality experienced slight declines. (2) Over time, the dominant drivers transitioned from primarily socio-economic factors to a synergistic influence of natural and human activities. GDP and land use intensity increasingly contributed to explaining ecosystem services through their interaction effects. (3) At the street scale, driving mechanisms exhibited spatial heterogeneity. For instance, the negative effects of built-up land and cultivated land were more pronounced in urban–rural transition zones, while elevation and NDVI had a more positive impact in ecological source areas. This framework provides systematic and targeted recommendations that offer data-driven insights to guide policies prioritizing regional ecological sustainability. Furthermore, it provides practical reference points for improving the ecological quality of other coal resource-exhausted cities undergoing incomplete transformations.