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A GIS-Based Simulation Method for Regional Food Potential and Demand

Author

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  • Keyu Bao

    (Center for Sustainable Energy Technology, Stuttgart University of Applied Sciences, Schellingstraße 24, D-70174 Stuttgart, Germany)

  • Rushikesh Padsala

    (Center for Geodesy and Geoinformatics, Stuttgart University of Applied Sciences, Schellingstraße 24, D-70174 Stuttgart, Germany)

  • Volker Coors

    (Center for Geodesy and Geoinformatics, Stuttgart University of Applied Sciences, Schellingstraße 24, D-70174 Stuttgart, Germany)

  • Daniela Thrän

    (Department of Bioenergy, Helmholtz Center for Environmental Research, Torgauer Straße 116, D-04247 Leipzig, Germany
    Bioenergy System, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Leipzig, Grimmaische Straße 12, D-04109 Leipzig, Germany
    Unit Bioenergy System, Deutsches Biomasseforschungszentrum GmbH, Torgauer Straße 116, D-04347 Leipzig, Germany)

  • Bastian Schröter

    (Center for Sustainable Energy Technology, Stuttgart University of Applied Sciences, Schellingstraße 24, D-70174 Stuttgart, Germany)

Abstract

A quantitative assessment of food-water-energy interactions is important to assess pathways and scenarios towards a holistically sustainable regional development. While a range of tools and methods exist that assess energetic demands and potentials on a regional scale, the same is not true for assessments of regional food demand and potential. This work introduces a new food simulation workflow to address local food potential and demand at the regional level, by extending an existing regional energy-water simulation platform. The goal of this work is to develop a GIS-based bottom-up approach to simulate regional food demand that can be linked to similarly GIS-based workflows assessing regional water demands and energetic demands and potentials. This allows us to study food-water-energy issues on a local scale. For this, a CityGML land use data model is extended with a feed and animal potential raster map as well as a soil type map to serve as the main inputs. The workflow simulates: (1) the vegetal and animal product food potentials by taking climate, crop type, soil type, organic farming, and food waste parameters into account; (2) the food demand of vegetal and animal products influenced by population change, body weight, age, human development index, and other indicators. The method is tested and validated in three German counties with various land use coverages. The results show that restricting land used exclusively for energy crop production is the most effective way to increase annual food production potential. Climate change by 2050 is expected to result in annual biomass yield changes between −4% and 2% depending on the region. The amount of animal product consumption is expected to rise by 16% by 2050, while 4% fewer vegetal products are excepted to be consumed.

Suggested Citation

  • Keyu Bao & Rushikesh Padsala & Volker Coors & Daniela Thrän & Bastian Schröter, 2021. "A GIS-Based Simulation Method for Regional Food Potential and Demand," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-18, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:10:y:2021:i:8:p:880-:d:619129
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bao, Keyu & Thrän, Daniela & Schröter, Bastian, 2023. "Land resource allocation between biomass and ground-mounted PV under consideration of the food–water–energy nexus framework at regional scale," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 203(C), pages 323-333.
    2. von Rüden, Lea & Satola, Barbara & Reininghaus, Nies & Kröner, Michael & Vehse, Martin & Dyck, Alexander & Agert, Carsten, 2025. "GIS-based technical analysis of the local renewable energy production potentials of farms in Germany," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).

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