A News Sentiment Index to Inform International Financial Reporting Standard 9 Impairments

Economic and financial narratives inform market sentiment through the emotions that are triggered and the subjectivity that gets evoked. There is an important connection between narrative, sentiment, and human decision making. In this study, natural language processing is used to extract market sentiment from the narratives using FinBERT, a Python library that has been pretrained on a large financial corpus. A news sentiment index is constructed and shown to be a leading indicator of systemic risk. A rolling regression shows how the impact of news sentiment on systemic risk changes over time, with the importance of news sentiment increasing in more recent years. Monitoring systemic risk is an important tool used by central banks to proactively identify and manage emerging risks to the financial system; it is also a key input into the credit loss provision quantification at banks. Credit loss provision is a key focus area for auditors because of the risk of material misstatement, but finding appropriate sources of audit evidence is challenging. The causal relationship between news sentiment and systemic risk suggests that news sentiment could serve as an early warning signal of increasing credit risk and an effective indicator of the state of the economic cycle. The news sentiment index is shown to be useful as audit evidence when benchmarking trends in accounting provisions, thus informing financial disclosures and serving as an exogenous variable in econometric forecast models.