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A Statistical Analysis of Cryptocurrencies

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  • Stephen Chan

    ()

  • Jeffrey Chu

    ()

  • Saralees Nadarajah

    ()

  • Joerg Osterrieder

    ()

Abstract

We analyze statistical properties of the largest cryptocurrencies (determined by market capitalization), of which Bitcoin is the most prominent example. We characterize their exchange rates versus the U.S. Dollar by fitting parametric distributions to them. It is shown that returns are clearly non-normal, however, no single distribution fits well jointly to all the cryptocurrencies analysed. We find that for the most popular currencies, such as Bitcoin and Litecoin, the generalized hyperbolic distribution gives the best fit, while for the smaller cryptocurrencies the normal inverse Gaussian distribution, generalized t distribution, and Laplace distribution give good fits. The results are important for investment and risk management purposes.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephen Chan & Jeffrey Chu & Saralees Nadarajah & Joerg Osterrieder, 2017. "A Statistical Analysis of Cryptocurrencies," Journal of Risk and Financial Management, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 10(2), pages 1-23, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:10:y:2017:i:2:p:12-:d:100126
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Stosic, Darko & Stosic, Dusan & Ludermir, Teresa B. & Stosic, Tatijana, 2018. "Nonextensive triplets in cryptocurrency exchanges," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 505(C), pages 1069-1074.
    2. Omane-Adjepong, Maurice & Alagidede, Paul & Akosah, Nana Kwame, 2019. "Wavelet time-scale persistence analysis of cryptocurrency market returns and volatility," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 514(C), pages 105-120.
    3. Eduard Silantyev, 2019. "Order flow analysis of cryptocurrency markets," Digital Finance, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 191-218, November.
    4. White, Reilly & Marinakis, Yorgos & Islam, Nazrul & Walsh, Steven, 2020. "Is Bitcoin a currency, a technology-based product, or something else?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    5. Yuan Hu & Svetlozar T. Rache & Frank J. Fabozzi, 2019. "Modelling Crypto Asset Price Dynamics, Optimal Crypto Portfolio, and Crypto Option Valuation," Papers 1908.05419, arXiv.org.
    6. Zhang, Yuanyuan & Chan, Stephen & Chu, Jeffrey & Nadarajah, Saralees, 2019. "Stylised facts for high frequency cryptocurrency data," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 513(C), pages 598-612.
    7. Marian Gidea & Daniel Goldsmith & Yuri Katz & Pablo Roldan & Yonah Shmalo, 2018. "Topological recognition of critical transitions in time series of cryptocurrencies," Papers 1809.00695, arXiv.org.
    8. Rodolfo Angelo Magtanggol Iii De Guzman & Mike K. P. So, 2018. "Empirical Analysis Of Bitcoin Prices Using Threshold Time Series Models," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 13(04), pages 1-24, December.
    9. Damian Zięba, 2019. "Lévy processes on the cryptocurrency market," Working Papers 2019-15, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    10. da Cunha, C.R. & da Silva, R., 2020. "Relevant stylized facts about bitcoin: Fluctuations, first return probability, and natural phenomena," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 550(C).
    11. Dean Fantazzini & Stephan Zimin, 2020. "A multivariate approach for the simultaneous modelling of market risk and credit risk for cryptocurrencies," Economia e Politica Industriale: Journal of Industrial and Business Economics, Springer;Associazione Amici di Economia e Politica Industriale, vol. 47(1), pages 19-69, March.
    12. Lorenzo Lucchini & Laura Alessandretti & Bruno Lepri & Angela Gallo & Andrea Baronchelli, 2020. "From code to market: Network of developers and correlated returns of cryptocurrencies," Papers 2004.07290, arXiv.org.
    13. Gregor Dorfleitner & Carina Lung, 2018. "Cryptocurrencies from the perspective of euro investors: a re-examination of diversification benefits and a new day-of-the-week effect," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 19(7), pages 472-494, December.
    14. Liu, Weiyi, 2019. "Portfolio diversification across cryptocurrencies," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 200-205.
    15. Gidea, Marian & Goldsmith, Daniel & Katz, Yuri & Roldan, Pablo & Shmalo, Yonah, 2020. "Topological recognition of critical transitions in time series of cryptocurrencies," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 548(C).
    16. Nils Bundi & Marc Wildi, 2019. "Bitcoin and market-(in)efficiency: a systematic time series approach," Digital Finance, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 47-65, November.
    17. Trucíos, Carlos, 2019. "Forecasting Bitcoin risk measures: A robust approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 836-847.
    18. Stosic, Darko & Stosic, Dusan & Ludermir, Teresa B. & Stosic, Tatijana, 2019. "Exploring disorder and complexity in the cryptocurrency space," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 525(C), pages 548-556.
    19. Anastasiadis Panagiotis & Katsaros Efthymios & Koutsioukis Anastasios-Taxiarchis & Pandazis Athanasios, 2020. "GARCH Modelling of High-Capitalization Cryptocurrencies' Impacts During Bearish Markets," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 9(3), pages 87-106.
    20. Liu, Weiyi & Liang, Xuan & Cui, Guowei, 2020. "Common risk factors in the returns on cryptocurrencies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 299-305.
    21. Chu, Jeffrey & Zhang, Yuanyuan & Chan, Stephen, 2019. "The adaptive market hypothesis in the high frequency cryptocurrency market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 221-231.
    22. Stosic, Darko & Stosic, Dusan & Ludermir, Teresa B. & Stosic, Tatijana, 2019. "Multifractal behavior of price and volume changes in the cryptocurrency market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 520(C), pages 54-61.
    23. Chu, Jeffrey & Chan, Stephen & Zhang, Yuanyuan, 2020. "High frequency momentum trading with cryptocurrencies," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    exchange rate; distributions; blockchain; Bitcoin;

    JEL classification:

    • C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods
    • E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics
    • F2 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • G - Financial Economics

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