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A Model for Stock Return Distribution

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  • Linden, Mikael

Abstract

The Laplace mixture distribution for stock share returns is derived from conditional N(0, sigma-squared) distribution. The conditioning variable, sigma-squared, is assumed to be an exponentially distributed random variable. This offers a natural stochastic interpretation of the risk involved with the stock share. Maximum likelihood (ML) estimates for returns of the 20 most traded shares and the aggregate index of the Helsinki stock market in late 1980s do not reject the Laplace distribution model. The results extend to returns over longer periods than 1 day. Copyright @ 2001 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. All rights reserved.

Suggested Citation

  • Linden, Mikael, 2001. "A Model for Stock Return Distribution," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(2), pages 159-169, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:ijf:ijfiec:v:6:y:2001:i:2:p:159-69
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    Cited by:

    1. Rodríguez, Mª Araceli, 2005. "Nueva Evidencia Empírica sobre las Turbulencias Cambiarias de la Peseta Española. 1989-1998/New Evidence about Turbulences on the Spanish Peseta. 1989-1998s," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 23, pages 207-230, Abril.
    2. K Autchariyapanitkul & S Chanaim & S Sriboonchitta & T Denoeux, 2014. "Predicting Stock Returns in the Capital Asset Pricing Model Using Quantile Regression and Belief Functions," Post-Print hal-01127790, HAL.
    3. Markus Haas & Stefan Mittnik & Marc Paolella, 2006. "Modelling and predicting market risk with Laplace-Gaussian mixture distributions," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(15), pages 1145-1162.
    4. repec:ris:utmsje:0199 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. repec:gam:jjrfmx:v:10:y:2017:i:2:p:12-:d:100126 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Tomasz Kozubowski & Saralees Nadarajah, 2010. "Multitude of Laplace distributions," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 51(1), pages 127-148, January.
    7. Öller, L-E & Stockhammar, P, 2009. "On the Probability Distribution of Economic Growth," MPRA Paper 18581, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Roch, Oriol & Alegre, Antonio, 2006. "Testing the bivariate distribution of daily equity returns using copulas. An application to the Spanish stock market," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 1312-1329, November.
    9. Gel, Yulia R., 2010. "Test of fit for a Laplace distribution against heavier tailed alternatives," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 958-965, April.
    10. Saralees Nadarajah, 2009. "Laplace random variables with application to price indices," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 93(3), pages 345-369, September.
    11. Kaldasch, Joachim, 2014. "Evolutionary model of stock markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 415(C), pages 449-462.
    12. Oriol Roch Casellas & Antonio Alegre Escolano, 2005. "Testing the bivariate distribution of daily equity returns using copulas. An application to the Spanish stock market," Working Papers in Economics 143, Universitat de Barcelona. Espai de Recerca en Economia.
    13. López Martín, María del Mar & García, Catalina García & García Pérez, José, 2012. "Treatment of kurtosis in financial markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(5), pages 2032-2045.

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