IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v18y2025i13p3324-d1686611.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An Intelligent Long Short-Term Memory-Based Machine Learning Model for the Potential Assessment of Global Hydropower Capacity in Sustainable Energy Transition and Security

Author

Listed:
  • Muhammad Amir Raza

    (Department of Electrical Engineering, Mehran University of Engineering and Technology, SZAB Campus, Khairpur Mir’s 66020, Pakistan)

  • Abdul Karim

    (Department of Electrical Engineering, Mehran University of Engineering and Technology, SZAB Campus, Khairpur Mir’s 66020, Pakistan)

  • Mohammed Alqarni

    (Department of Electrical Engineering, College of Engineering, University of Business and Technology, Jeddah 21361, Saudi Arabia)

  • Mahmoud Ahmad Al-Khasawneh

    (Hourani Centre for Applied Scientific Research, Al-Ahliyya Amman University, Amman 19328, Jordan
    School of Computing, Skyline University College, University City Sharjah, Sharjah 1797, United Arab Emirates)

  • Touqeer Ahmed Jumani

    (Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, College of Engineering, A’Sharqiyah University, Ibra 400, Oman)

  • Mohammed Aman

    (Department of Industrial Engineering, College of Engineering, University of Business and Technology, Jeddah 21361, Saudi Arabia)

  • Muhammad I. Masud

    (Department of Electrical Engineering, College of Engineering, University of Business and Technology, Jeddah 21361, Saudi Arabia)

Abstract

Climate change is a pressing global issue with severe consequences for the planet and human health. The Earth’s temperature has risen by 2 °C from 1901 to 2023, and this warming trend is expected to continue, causing potentially dangerous shifts in climate. Climate change impacts are already visible, with more frequent and severe heat waves, droughts, intense rain, and floods becoming increasingly common. Therefore, hydropower can contribute to addressing the global climate change issue and help to achieve global energy transition and stabilize global energy security. A Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM)-based model implemented in Python for global and regional hydropower forecasting was developed for a study period of 2023 to 2060 by taking the input data from 1980 to 2022. The results revealed that Asian countries have greater hydropower potential, which is expected to increase from 1926.51 TWh in 2023 to 2318.78 TWh in 2030, 2772.06 TWh in 2040, 2811.41 TWh in 2050, and 3195.79 TWh in 2060, as compared with the other regions of the world like the Middle East, Africa, Asia, Common Wealth of Independent State (CIS), Europe, North America, and South and Central America. The global hydropower potential is also expected to increase from 4350.12 TWh in 2023 to 4806.26 TWh in 2030, 5393.80 TWh in 2040, 6003.53 TWh in 2050, and 6644.06 TWh in 2060, which is sufficient for achieving energy transition and energy security goals. Furthermore, the performance and accuracy of the LSTM-based model were found to be 98%. This study will help in the efficient scheduling and management of hydropower resources, reducing uncertainties caused by environmental variability such as precipitation and runoff. The proposed model contributes to the energy transition and security that is needed to meet the global climate targets.

Suggested Citation

  • Muhammad Amir Raza & Abdul Karim & Mohammed Alqarni & Mahmoud Ahmad Al-Khasawneh & Touqeer Ahmed Jumani & Mohammed Aman & Muhammad I. Masud, 2025. "An Intelligent Long Short-Term Memory-Based Machine Learning Model for the Potential Assessment of Global Hydropower Capacity in Sustainable Energy Transition and Security," Energies, MDPI, vol. 18(13), pages 1-27, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:18:y:2025:i:13:p:3324-:d:1686611
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/18/13/3324/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/18/13/3324/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Su, Chi-Wei & Pang, Li-Dong & Qin, Meng & Lobonţ, Oana-Ramona & Umar, Muhammad, 2023. "The spillover effects among fossil fuel, renewables and carbon markets: Evidence under the dual dilemma of climate change and energy crises," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 274(C).
    2. Wang, Jian Qi & Du, Yu & Wang, Jing, 2020. "LSTM based long-term energy consumption prediction with periodicity," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    3. Qin, Pengcheng & Xu, Hongmei & Liu, Min & Xiao, Chan & Forrest, Kate E. & Samuelsen, Scott & Tarroja, Brian, 2020. "Assessing concurrent effects of climate change on hydropower supply, electricity demand, and greenhouse gas emissions in the Upper Yangtze River Basin of China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 279(C).
    4. Serhan Cevik, 2024. "Climate change and energy security: the dilemma or opportunity of the century?," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 26(3), pages 653-672, July.
    5. Yuan, Wenlin & Wang, Xinqi & Su, Chengguo & Cheng, Chuntian & Liu, Zhe & Wu, Zening, 2021. "Stochastic optimization model for the short-term joint operation of photovoltaic power and hydropower plants based on chance-constrained programming," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    6. Gasser, Patrick, 2020. "A review on energy security indices to compare country performances," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    7. Abbasi, Kashif Raza & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Zhang, Jinjun & Irfan, Muhammad & Alvarado, Rafael, 2022. "Analyze the environmental sustainability factors of China: The role of fossil fuel energy and renewable energy," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 187(C), pages 390-402.
    8. Talat S. Genc & Stephen Kosempel, 2023. "Energy Transition and the Economy: A Review Article," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(7), pages 1-26, March.
    9. Mohammad Fazle Rabbi & József Popp & Domicián Máté & Sándor Kovács, 2022. "Energy Security and Energy Transition to Achieve Carbon Neutrality," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(21), pages 1-18, October.
    10. Hosseini, S. M. H. & Forouzbakhsh, F. & Rahimpoor, M., 2005. "Determination of the optimal installation capacity of small hydro-power plants through the use of technical, economic and reliability indices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(15), pages 1948-1956, October.
    11. Wang, Lei & Fu, Zhong-Lin & Guo, Wei & Liang, Ruo-Yu & Shao, Hong-Yu, 2020. "What influences sales market of new energy vehicles in China? Empirical study based on survey of consumers’ purchase reasons," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    12. Teegala Srinivasa Kishore & Epari Ritesh Patro & V. S. K. V. Harish & Ali Torabi Haghighi, 2021. "A Comprehensive Study on the Recent Progress and Trends in Development of Small Hydropower Projects," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-31, May.
    13. Rahi, O.P. & Kumar, Ashwani, 2016. "Economic analysis for refurbishment and uprating of hydro power plants," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 1197-1204.
    14. Du, Kun & Yang, Shucheng & Xu, Wei & Zheng, Feifei & Duan, Huanfeng, 2025. "A novel optimization framework for efficiently identifying high-quality Pareto-optimal solutions: maximizing resilience of water distribution systems under cost constraints," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).
    15. Abdelrahman Azzuni & Arman Aghahosseini & Manish Ram & Dmitrii Bogdanov & Upeksha Caldera & Christian Breyer, 2020. "Energy Security Analysis for a 100% Renewable Energy Transition in Jordan by 2050," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-26, June.
    16. Egidijus Kasiulis & Petras Punys & Algis Kvaraciejus & Antanas Dumbrauskas & Linas Jurevičius, 2020. "Small Hydropower in the Baltic States—Current Status and Potential for Future Development," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(24), pages 1-21, December.
    17. Zhang, Lixiao & Pang, Mingyue & Bahaj, AbuBakr S. & Yang, Yongchuan & Wang, Changbo, 2021. "Small hydropower development in China: Growing challenges and transition strategy," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    18. Howard, Bahareh Sara & Hamilton, Nicholas E. & Diesendorf, Mark & Wiedmann, Thomas, 2018. "Modeling the carbon budget of the Australian electricity sector's transition to renewable energy," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 712-728.
    19. Bożena Gajdzik & Radosław Wolniak & Wieslaw Wes Grebski, 2022. "An Econometric Model of the Operation of the Steel Industry in POLAND in the Context of Process Heat and Energy Consumption," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(21), pages 1-26, October.
    20. Dan Welsby & James Price & Steve Pye & Paul Ekins, 2021. "Unextractable fossil fuels in a 1.5 °C world," Nature, Nature, vol. 597(7875), pages 230-234, September.
    21. Zolfaghari, Mehdi & Golabi, Mohammad Reza, 2021. "Modeling and predicting the electricity production in hydropower using conjunction of wavelet transform, long short-term memory and random forest models," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 1367-1381.
    22. Khan, Irfan & Hou, Fujun & Irfan, Muhammad & Zakari, Abdulrasheed & Le, Hoang Phong, 2021. "Does energy trilemma a driver of economic growth? The roles of energy use, population growth, and financial development," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    23. Boute, Anatole & Zhikharev, Alexey, 2019. "Vested interests as driver of the clean energy transition: Evidence from Russia's solar energy policy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    24. Mayeda, A.M. & Boyd, A.D., 2020. "Factors influencing public perceptions of hydropower projects: A systematic literature review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    25. Barros, Carlos P. & Peypoch, Nicolas, 2007. "The determinants of cost efficiency of hydroelectric generating plants: A random frontier approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 4463-4470, September.
    26. Sanya Carley & David M. Konisky, 2020. "The justice and equity implications of the clean energy transition," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 5(8), pages 569-577, August.
    27. Singh, Vineet Kumar & Singal, S.K., 2017. "Operation of hydro power plants-a review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 610-619.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kuo-Chen Wu & Jui-Chu Lin & Wen-Te Chang & Chia-Szu Yen & Huang-Jie Fu, 2023. "Research and Analysis of Promotional Policies for Small Hydropower Generation in Taiwan," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(13), pages 1-16, June.
    2. Teegala Srinivasa Kishore & Epari Ritesh Patro & V. S. K. V. Harish & Ali Torabi Haghighi, 2021. "A Comprehensive Study on the Recent Progress and Trends in Development of Small Hydropower Projects," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-31, May.
    3. Epari Ritesh Patro & Teegala Srinivasa Kishore & Ali Torabi Haghighi, 2022. "Levelized Cost of Electricity Generation by Small Hydropower Projects under Clean Development Mechanism in India," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-16, February.
    4. Kim, Jaden & Jaumotte, Florence & Panton, Augustus J. & Schwerhoff, Gregor, 2025. "Energy security and the green transition," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    5. Bartłomiej Igliński & Michał Bernard Pietrzak & Urszula Kiełkowska & Mateusz Skrzatek & Artur Gajdos & Anas Zyadin & Karthikeyan Natarajan, 2022. "How to Meet the Green Deal Objectives—Is It Possible to Obtain 100% RES at the Regional Level in the EU?," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-24, March.
    6. Zheng, Li & Abbasi, Kashif Raza & Salem, Sultan & Irfan, Muhammad & Alvarado, Rafael & Lv, Kangjuan, 2022. "How technological innovation and institutional quality affect sectoral energy consumption in Pakistan? Fresh policy insights from novel econometric approach," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    7. Guanghua Zheng & Yifan He & Zhaohan Lu & Yuping Wu, 2025. "Research on Spatial and Temporal Divergence and Influencing Factors of the Coal Industry Transformation and Development Under Energy Security and Dual-Carbon Target," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(6), pages 1-28, March.
    8. Bashir, Muhammad Farhan & Pata, Ugur Korkut & Shahzad, Luqman, 2025. "Linking climate change, energy transition and renewable energy investments to combat energy security risks: Evidence from top energy consuming economies," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 314(C).
    9. Tang, Chang & Irfan, Muhammad & Razzaq, Asif & Dagar, Vishal, 2022. "Natural resources and financial development: Role of business regulations in testing the resource-curse hypothesis in ASEAN countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    10. Mishra, Sachin & Singal, S.K. & Khatod, D.K., 2011. "Optimal installation of small hydropower plant—A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(8), pages 3862-3869.
    11. Aslam, Naveed & Yang, Wanping & Saeed, Rabia & Ullah, Fahim, 2024. "Energy transition as a solution for energy security risk: Empirical evidence from BRI countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 290(C).
    12. Yang, Jiayu & Wang, Jianlong & Wang, Weilong & Wu, Haitao, 2024. "Exploring the path to promote energy revolution: Assessing the impact of new energy demonstration city construction on urban energy transition in China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
    13. Hui Dai & Jamal Mamkhezri & Noman Arshed & Anam Javaid & Sultan Salem & Yousaf Ali Khan, 2022. "Role of Energy Mix in Determining Climate Change Vulnerability in G7 Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-15, February.
    14. Rehan, Mohammad & Raza, Muhammad Amir & Aman, M.M. & Abro, Abdul Ghani & Ismail, Iqbal Mohammad Ibrahim & Munir, Said & Summan, Ahmed & Shahzad, Khurram & Rashid, Muhammad Imtiaz & Ali, Nadeem, 2023. "Untapping the potential of bioenergy for achieving sustainable energy future in Pakistan," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 275(C).
    15. Bigerna, Simona & Ceccacci, Francesca & Micheli, Silvia & Polinori, Paolo, 2023. "Between saying and doing for ensuring energy resources supply: The case of Italy in time of crisis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
    16. Gao, Shuaizhi & Zhou, Peng & Zhang, Hongyan, 2023. "Does energy transition help narrow the urban-rural income gap? Evidence from China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    17. Mateusz Hämmerling & Natalia Walczak & Tomasz Kałuża, 2023. "Analysis of the Influence of Hydraulic and Hydrological Factors on the Operating Conditions of a Small Hydropower Station on the Example of the Stary Młyn Barrage on the Głomia River in Poland," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(19), pages 1-22, September.
    18. Ewa Chomać-Pierzecka & Andrzej Kokiel & Joanna Rogozińska-Mitrut & Anna Sobczak & Dariusz Soboń & Jacek Stasiak, 2022. "Hydropower in the Energy Market in Poland and the Baltic States in the Light of the Challenges of Sustainable Development-An Overview of the Current State and Development Potential," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-19, October.
    19. Huang, Xiaoxun & Hayashi, Kiichiro & Fujii, Minoru & Villa, Ferdinando & Yamazaki, Yuri & Okazawa, Hiromu, 2023. "Identification of potential locations for small hydropower plant based on resources time footprint: A case study in Dan River Basin, China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 205(C), pages 293-304.
    20. Zeng, Shihong & Tanveer, Arifa & Fu, Xiaolan & Gu, Yuxiao & Irfan, Muhammad, 2022. "Modeling the influence of critical factors on the adoption of green energy technologies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:18:y:2025:i:13:p:3324-:d:1686611. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.