IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v16y2023i17p6291-d1228348.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Energy Demand Modeling for the Transition of a Coal-Dependent City to a Low-Carbon City: The Case of Ulaanbaatar City

Author

Listed:
  • Sarnai Battulga

    (Department of Energy, Environment and Climate Change, Asian Institute of Technology, School of Environment, Resources and Development, Klong Luang, Pathum Thani 12120, Thailand)

  • Shobhakar Dhakal

    (Department of Energy, Environment and Climate Change, Asian Institute of Technology, School of Environment, Resources and Development, Klong Luang, Pathum Thani 12120, Thailand)

Abstract

Cities have committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions and promoting renewable energy. However, many cities continue to rely on fossil fuels, while renewable energy sources are not used or are unable to meet the demand that fossil fuels provide. Depending on the geographic location, climate, and resources, cities must find their own path to energy sustainability. The city of Ulaanbaatar is one of the coal-dependent cities, its electricity and heat consumption mainly coming from coal. In this study, the future final energy demand of a coal-dependent city is identified and analyzed to make it a low-carbon city. Long-term energy demand projections for Ulaanbaatar to 2050 are conducted using the model for analysis of energy demand (MAED) model. Four scenarios are developed based on the existing local and national policies in the socio-economic and energy sectors, as well as more ambitious policy and technology measures recommended by various studies in the MAED_D model. The final energy demand is calculated to be 548, 460, 334, and 264 PJ in 2050 for BAU, REF, NDC, and RM scenarios, respectively, compared to 135 PJ in 2020. The results show that the high penetration of electricity and renewable energy, energy efficiency measures, and energy intensity reduction in all sectors can significantly reduce the future energy demand and help the transition towards a low-carbon city.

Suggested Citation

  • Sarnai Battulga & Shobhakar Dhakal, 2023. "Energy Demand Modeling for the Transition of a Coal-Dependent City to a Low-Carbon City: The Case of Ulaanbaatar City," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(17), pages 1-17, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:16:y:2023:i:17:p:6291-:d:1228348
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/16/17/6291/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/16/17/6291/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jovanović, Marina & Afgan, Naim & Radovanović, Predrag & Stevanović, Vladimir, 2009. "Sustainable development of the Belgrade energy system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 532-539.
    2. Bhattacharyya, Subhes C. & Timilsina, Govinda R., 2009. "Energy demand models for policy formulation : a comparative study of energy demand models," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4866, The World Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Azevedo, I. & Leal, V., 2021. "A new model for ex-post quantification of the effects of local actions for climate change mitigation," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    2. Alhamwi, Alaa & Medjroubi, Wided & Vogt, Thomas & Agert, Carsten, 2018. "Modelling urban energy requirements using open source data and models," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 231(C), pages 1100-1108.
    3. Vipin Arora, 2013. "Comparisons of Chinese and Indian Energy Consumption Forecasting Models," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(3), pages 2110-2121.
    4. Kuchler, Magdalena & Höök, Mikael, 2020. "Fractured visions: Anticipating (un)conventional natural gas in Poland," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    5. Silva, Mafalda C. & Horta, Isabel M. & Leal, Vítor & Oliveira, Vítor, 2017. "A spatially-explicit methodological framework based on neural networks to assess the effect of urban form on energy demand," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 202(C), pages 386-398.
    6. Ifaei, Pouya & Tayerani Charmchi, Amir Saman & Loy-Benitez, Jorge & Yang, Rebecca Jing & Yoo, ChangKyoo, 2022. "A data-driven analytical roadmap to a sustainable 2030 in South Korea based on optimal renewable microgrids," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    7. Shen, Yung-Chi & Chou, Chiyang James & Lin, Grace T.R., 2011. "The portfolio of renewable energy sources for achieving the three E policy goals," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 2589-2598.
    8. Škobalj, P. & Kijevčanin, M. & Afgan, N. & Jovanović, M. & Turanjanin, V. & Vučićević, B., 2017. "Multi-criteria sustainability analysis of thermal power plant Kolubara-A Unit 2," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 837-847.
    9. Diankai Wang & Inna Gryshova & Anush Balian & Mykola Kyzym & Tetiana Salashenko & Viktoriia Khaustova & Olexandr Davidyuk, 2022. "Assessment of Power System Sustainability and Compromises between the Development Goals," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-23, February.
    10. Wadud, Zia & Dey, Himadri S. & Kabir, Md. Ashfanoor & Khan, Shahidul I., 2011. "Modeling and forecasting natural gas demand in Bangladesh," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(11), pages 7372-7380.
    11. Pinjari, Abdul Rawoof & Bhat, Chandra, 2021. "Computationally efficient forecasting procedures for Kuhn-Tucker consumer demand model systems: Application to residential energy consumption analysis," Journal of choice modelling, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    12. Dhakouani, Asma & Znouda, Essia & Bouden, Chiheb, 2019. "Impacts of energy efficiency policies on the integration of renewable energy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    13. Nadia S. Ouedraogo, 2017. "Energy futures modelling for African countries: LEAP model application," WIDER Working Paper Series 056, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    14. Igbal Guliyev & Igor Litvinyuk, 2017. "Issues for Long-range Projection of International Energy Markets through the Prism of Sustainable Development," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 7(2), pages 296-303.
    15. Sahabmanesh, Aref & Saboohi, Yadollah, 2017. "Model of sustainable development of energy system, case of Hamedan," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 66-79.
    16. Fleiter, Tobias & Worrell, Ernst & Eichhammer, Wolfgang, 2011. "Barriers to energy efficiency in industrial bottom-up energy demand models--A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 3099-3111, August.
    17. Indranarain Ramlall, 2012. "Modelling Non-Renewable Energy in Mauritius: In Quest for Sustainable Policies towards a Greener Economy," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 2(3), pages 123-133.
    18. Cartelle Barros, Juan José & Lara Coira, Manuel & de la Cruz López, María Pilar & del Caño Gochi, Alfredo, 2015. "Assessing the global sustainability of different electricity generation systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 473-489.
    19. Martínez-Jaramillo, Juan Esteban & Arango-Aramburo, Santiago & Álvarez-Uribe, Karla C. & Jaramillo-Álvarez, Patricia, 2017. "Assessing the impacts of transport policies through energy system simulation: The case of the Medellin Metropolitan Area, Colombia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 101-108.
    20. Silvia Angilella & Maria Rosaria Pappalardo, 2022. "Performance assessment of energy companies employing Hierarchy Stochastic Multi-Attribute Acceptability Analysis," Operational Research, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 299-370, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:16:y:2023:i:17:p:6291-:d:1228348. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.