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A New Approach to Model Verification, Falsification and Selection

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  • Andrew J. Buck

    (Department of Economics Temple University, Philadelphia, PA 19122, USA)

  • George M. Lady

    (Department of Economics Temple University, Philadelphia, PA 19122, USA)

Abstract

This paper shows that a qualitative analysis, i.e. , an assessment of the consistency of a hypothesized sign pattern for structural arrays with the sign pattern of the estimated reduced form, can always provide decisive insight into a model’s validity both in general and compared to other models. Qualitative analysis can show that it is impossible for some models to have generated the data used to estimate the reduced form, even though standard specification tests might show the model to be adequate. A partially specified structural hypothesis can be falsified by estimating as few as one reduced form equation. Zero restrictions in the structure can themselves be falsified. It is further shown how the information content of the hypothesized structural sign patterns can be measured using a commonly applied concept of statistical entropy. The lower the hypothesized structural sign pattern’s entropy, the more a priori information it proposes about the sign pattern of the estimated reduced form. As an hypothesized structural sign pattern has a lower entropy, it is more subject to type 1 error and less subject to type 2 error. Three cases illustrate the approach taken here.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew J. Buck & George M. Lady, 2015. "A New Approach to Model Verification, Falsification and Selection," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 3(3), pages 1-28, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jecnmx:v:3:y:2015:i:3:p:466-493:d:51844
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Joshua D. Angrist & Alan B. Keueger, 1991. "Does Compulsory School Attendance Affect Schooling and Earnings?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(4), pages 979-1014.
    2. Buck, Andrew J. & Lady, George M., 2005. "Falsifying economic models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 777-810, September.
    3. Lady, George M. & Buck, Andrew J., 2011. "Structural models, information and inherited restrictions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2820-2831.
    4. Strickland, Allyn D & Weiss, Leonard W, 1976. "Advertising, Concentration, and Price-Cost Margins," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(5), pages 1109-1121, October.
    5. Buck, Andrew J. & Lady, George M., 2012. "Structural sign patterns and reduced form restrictions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 462-470.
    6. Ritschard, Gilbert, 1983. "Computable Qualitative Comparative Static Techniques," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(4), pages 1145-1168, July.
    7. George Lady, 2000. "Topics in nonparametric comparative statics and stability," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 6(1), pages 67-83, February.
    8. Kristin F. Butcher & Anne Case, 1994. "The Effect of Sibling Sex Composition on Women's Education and Earnings," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 109(3), pages 531-563.
    9. John M. Barron & Bradley T. Ewing & Glen R. Waddell, 2000. "The Effects Of High School Athletic Participation On Education And Labor Market Outcomes," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(3), pages 409-421, August.
    10. Kelvin Lancaster, 1966. "The Solution of Qualitative Comparative Static Problems," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 80(2), pages 278-295.
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    Cited by:

    1. Andrew J. Buck & George M. Lady, 2016. "Estimating a Falsified Model," DETU Working Papers 1601, Department of Economics, Temple University.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    verification; falsification; specification; qualitative analysis; entropy; inherited restrictions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C18 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Methodolical Issues: General
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

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