Will the Grain Imports Competition Effect Reverse Land Green Efficiency of Grain Production? Analysis Based on Virtual Land Trade Perspective

To explore new strategies to improve the efficiency of land for grain production in China, this study empirically investigates the relationship between the grain imports competition effect and the efficiency of land for grain production from the perspective of virtual land trade based on the new-new trade theory and induced technological innovation theory. We obtained the following conclusions: (1) Overall, the efficiency of land for grain production showed a slow upward trend from 2003 to 2020, with a growth rate of 27.53%. Among them, the efficiency of land for grain production in the Huang-Huai-Hai and northeast regions has increased by 66.41% and 36.30%, respectively. (2) The grain imports competition effect reduces the profitability of domestic grain production through shocks and forces the improvement of China’s grain production land efficiency. It is caused by the trade-for-competition effect. Importing a large number of grain products with lower land use costs reduces the profits of grain producers in the domestic market through shocks, gradually eliminating producers with less efficient land use, thus forcing the improvement of land use efficiency in domestic grain production. (3) The grain imports competition effect is stronger because the developed livestock industry in the northern region requires the import of large quantities of soybeans and corn, and other virtual land content is much lower than the domestic feed grain. Also, the marginal effect of the grain imports competition effect is stronger due to the presence of more producers with less efficient land for grain production in non-major grain-producing regions, which are more likely to be eliminated by market shocks from imports. This study verifies the applicability of the trade promotion competition effect and induces the technological innovation effect in the field of grain trade, which extends the research boundary of virtual land trade in grain.