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Estimation of Demand for Beef Imports in Indonesia: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Approach

Author

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  • Sholih Nugroho Hadi

    (Department of Tropical Agriculture and International Cooperation, National Pingtung University of Science and Technology, Pingtung 91202, Taiwan
    Indonesian Agency for Agricultural Research and Development, Ministry of Agriculture, Jakarta 12540, Indonesia)

  • Rebecca H. Chung

    (Department of Tropical Agriculture and International Cooperation, National Pingtung University of Science and Technology, Pingtung 91202, Taiwan)

Abstract

Import policies for food products, including beef, need to support national food security while protecting the domestic food industry. This study aims to develop a model for beef import demand of Indonesia. The study employed annual secondary data from various sources from 1990 to 2019. Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and the error correction models (ECM) were adapted for predicting the long-run and short-run beef import demand, by considering income growth, domestic production, relative price, and exchange rate. The bounds test showed that gross domestic product (GDP) growth per capita, domestic beef production, and the exchange rate had no significant effect on the beef import demand in the long run; nonetheless, the relative beef price between local and international market had a considerable impact (5.353%). In the short run, GDP growth per capita and domestic beef production significantly affected beef import demand (0.036% and −0.9%, respectively). Error correction term (ECT) corrected the disequilibrium of the import demand model in current year towards the following year (17.60%). This finding is confirmed by the fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS), dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS), and canonical co-integrating regression (CCR) methods. Ultimately, this study can serve as an instrument for formulating policy related to beef imports in Indonesia.

Suggested Citation

  • Sholih Nugroho Hadi & Rebecca H. Chung, 2022. "Estimation of Demand for Beef Imports in Indonesia: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Approach," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-12, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jagris:v:12:y:2022:i:8:p:1212-:d:887022
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Giuseppe Timpanaro, 2023. "Agricultural Food Marketing, Economics and Policies," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-9, March.
    2. Forgenie, David & Khoiriyah, Nikmatul, 2023. "Analyzing Food Import Demand in Indonesia: An ARDL Bounds Testing Approach," International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics (IJFAEC), Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat University, Department of Economics and Finance, vol. 11(1), January.

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