IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedreq/00032.html

The Rise in Long-Term Unemployment: Potential Causes and Implications

Author

Abstract

Long-term unemployment rose dramatically during the recent recession and remains elevated. In this essay, Andreas Hornstein and Thomas A. Lubik analyze the potential causes of this increase and explore various explanations of ?duration dependence,? the fact that the likelihood of finding a job decreases the longer a worker is unemployed. The authors find that more workers with inherently low job finding rates have become unemployed, which suggests that monetary policy may have a limited effect on reducing the incidence of long-term unemployment. The authors also discuss what lessons might be drawn from policy responses to long-term unemployment in Europe.

Suggested Citation

  • Andreas Hornstein & Thomas A. Lubik, 2015. "The Rise in Long-Term Unemployment: Potential Causes and Implications," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue 2Q, pages 125-149.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedreq:00032
    DOI: 10.21144/eq1010203
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.richmondfed.org/-/media/richmondfedorg/publications/research/economic_quarterly/2015/q2/2010.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.21144/eq1010203?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Peter Diamond, 1994. "Ranking, Unemployment Duration, and Wages," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 61(3), pages 417-434.
    2. Jeffrey M. Lacker & John A. Weinberg, 2007. "Inflation and unemployment: a layperson's guide to the Phillips curve," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 93(Sum), pages 201-227.
    3. Robert Shimer, 2012. "Reassessing the Ins and Outs of Unemployment," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 15(2), pages 127-148, April.
    4. Daniel Aaronson & Bhashkar Mazumder & Shani Schechter, 2010. "What is behind the rise in long-term unemployment?," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 34(Q II), pages 28-51.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Luz María Peña Longobardo & Juan Oliva-Moreno, 2018. "Differences in labour participation between people living with HIV and the general population: Results from Spain along the business cycle," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(4), pages 1-13, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Michael Elsby & Bart Hobijn & Ayşegül Şahin & Robert G. Valletta, 2011. "The labor market in the Great Recession: an update," Working Paper Series 2011-29, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    2. Hie Ahn & James Hamilton, 2016. "Heterogeneity and Unemployment Dynamics," Working Papers id:11130, eSocialSciences.
    3. Hie Joo Ahn, 2016. "The Role of Observed and Unobserved Heterogeneity in the Duration of Unemployment Spells," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-063r1, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised 25 Mar 2022.
    4. Elsby, Michael W.L. & Hobijn, Bart & Şahin, Ayşegül, 2015. "On the importance of the participation margin for labor market fluctuations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 64-82.
    5. Ayhan Görmüş, 2019. "Long-Term Youth Unemployment: Evidence from Turkish Household Labour Force Survey," The Indian Journal of Labour Economics, Springer;The Indian Society of Labour Economics (ISLE), vol. 62(3), pages 341-359, September.
    6. Murtin, Fabrice & de Serres, Alain & Hijzen, Alexander, 2014. "Unemployment and the coverage extension of collective wage agreements," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 52-66.
    7. Bart Hobijn & Aysegul Sahin, 2013. "Beveridge Curve Shifts across Countries since the Great Recession," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 61(4), pages 566-600, December.
    8. Ronald Bachmann & Mathias Sinning, 2016. "Decomposing the Ins and Outs of Cyclical Unemployment," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 78(6), pages 853-876, December.
    9. Ahn, Hie Joo, 2023. "Duration structure of unemployment hazards and the trend unemployment rate," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    10. Michal Franta, 2008. "Time Aggregation Bias in Discrete Time Models of Aggregate Duration Data," Working Papers 2008/10, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    11. Sengul, Gonul, 2017. "Effect of labor market policies on unemployment when firms adapt their recruitment strategy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 169-179.
    12. Andreas Hornstein, 2012. "Accounting for unemployment: the long and short of it," Working Paper 12-07, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    13. Ronald Bachmann & Mathias Sinning, 2011. "Decomposing the Ins and Outs of Cyclical Unemployment," Ruhr Economic Papers 0305, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    14. Amparo Nagore García & Arthur Soest, 2017. "Unemployment Exits Before and During the Crisis," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 31(4), pages 337-368, December.
    15. Sabine Klinger & Thomas Rothe, 2012. "The Impact of Labour Market Reforms and Economic Performance on the Matching of the Short‐term and the Long‐term Unemployed," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 59(1), pages 90-114, February.
    16. R. Jason Faberman & Taft Foster, 2013. "Unemployment among recent veterans during the Great Recession," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 37(Q I), pages 1-13.
    17. Fatih Karahan & Serena Rhee, 2014. "Population aging, migration spillovers, and the decline in interstate migration," Staff Reports 699, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    18. Etienne Lalé & Linas Tarasonis, 2020. "The Life-cycle Profile of Worker Flows in Lithuania," Bank of Lithuania Occasional Paper Series 32, Bank of Lithuania.
    19. Gonzalo Castex & Roberto Gillmore, 2014. "Análisis de Flujos en el Mercado laboral Chileno," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 731, Central Bank of Chile.
    20. Jonathan Heathcote & Fabrizio Perri & Gianluca Violante, 2020. "The Rise of US Earnings Inequality: Does the Cycle Drive the Trend?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 37, pages 181-204, August.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedreq:00032. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Christian Pascasio (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbrius.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.