IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

State business taxes and investment: state-by-state simulations


  • Robert S. Chirinko
  • Daniel J. Wilson


This article develops a framework for simulating the effects of state business taxes on state investment and output. Our simulations provide the predicted increase in investment—both in equipment and structures (E&S) and in research and development (R&D)—and the predicted increase in output for a given state resulting from a specified change in one of its three tax policies—the E&S investment tax credit, the R&D tax credit, or the corporate income tax. The simulations depend on a set of formulas linking economic parameters and state data to investment and output, all of which are reported in this article. We report results, based on our preferred set of parameters, for each of the 48 contiguous states. We also discuss alternative parameter values and explore the resulting sensitivity of predicted changes in state investment and output. Finally, we describe a simple web tool that we have made available online ( that allows users to insert their own preferred parameter values and simulate the economic effects for the state and tax policy of their choosing.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert S. Chirinko & Daniel J. Wilson, 2010. "State business taxes and investment: state-by-state simulations," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 13-28.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfer:y:2010:p:13-28

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Devereux, Michael P. & Lockwood, Ben & Redoano, Michela, 2008. "Do countries compete over corporate tax rates?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(5-6), pages 1210-1235, June.
    2. Jack M. Mintz, 1988. "An Empirical Estimate of Corporate Tax Refundability and Effective Tax Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 103(1), pages 225-231.
    3. Jane G. Gravelle, 1994. "The Economic Effects of Taxing Capital Income," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262071584, July.
    4. Chirinko, Robert S. & Wilson, Daniel J., 2008. "State investment tax incentives: A zero-sum game?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(12), pages 2362-2384, December.
    5. Daniel J. Wilson, 2006. "The mystery of falling state corporate income taxes," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue dec8.
    6. Heyndels, Bruno & Vuchelen, Jef, 1998. "Tax Mimicking Among Belgian Municipalities," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 51(n. 1), pages 89-101, March.
    7. Auerbach, Alan J, 1983. "Taxation, Corporate Financial Policy and the Cost of Capital," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 21(3), pages 905-940, September.
    8. Daniel J. Wilson, 2009. "Beggar Thy Neighbor? The In-State, Out-of-State, and Aggregate Effects of R&D Tax Credits," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 91(2), pages 431-436, May.
    9. Federico Revelli, 2002. "Testing the taxmimicking versus expenditure spill-over hypotheses using English data," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(14), pages 1723-1731.
    10. Sinn, Hans-Werner, 1991. "The vanishing harberger triangle," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 271-300, August.
    11. Robert S. Chirinko & Daniel J. Wilson, 2009. "A state level database for the manufacturing sector: construction and sources," Working Paper Series 2009-21, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    12. Michael Overesch & Johannes Rincke, 2011. "What Drives Corporate Tax Rates Down? A Reassessment of Globalization, Tax Competition, and Dynamic Adjustment to Shocks," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 113(3), pages 579-602, September.
    13. Robert S. Chirinko & Daniel J. Wilson, 2007. "Tax competition among U.S. states: racing to the bottom or riding on a seesaw?," Working Paper Series 2008-03, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    14. Chirinko, R S & Fazzari, S, 1994. "Economic Fluctuations, Market Power, and Returns to Scale: Evidence from Firm-Level Data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(1), pages 47-69, Jan.-Marc.
    15. Rosanne Altshuler & Alan J. Auerbach, 1990. "The Significance of Tax Law Asymmetries: An Empirical Investigation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 105(1), pages 61-86.
    16. Masayoshi Hayashi & Robin Boadway, 2001. "An empirical analysis of intergovernmental tax interaction: the case of business income taxes in Canada," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 34(2), pages 481-503, May.
    17. Rosanne Altshuler & Timothy J. Goodspeed, 2015. "Follow the Leader? Evidence on European and US Tax Competition," Public Finance Review, , vol. 43(4), pages 485-504, July.
    18. Chang, Yongsung & Hornstein, Andreas & Sarte, Pierre-Daniel, 2009. "On the employment effects of productivity shocks: The role of inventories, demand elasticity, and sticky prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 328-343, April.
    19. Domowitz, Ian & Hubbard, R Glenn & Petersen, Bruce C, 1987. "Oligopoly Supergames: Some Empirical Evidence on Prices and Margins," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(4), pages 379-398, June.
    20. Chirinko, Robert S. & Mallick, Debdulal, 2011. "The elasticity of derived demand, factor substitution, and product demand: Corrections to Hicks' formula and Marshall's Four Rules," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 708-711, October.
    21. Heyndels, Bruno & Vuchelen, Jef, 1998. "Tax Mimicking Among Belgian Municipalities," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 51(1), pages 89-101, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Timothy J. Bartik & George A. Erickcek, 2012. "Simulating the Effects of Michigan's MEGA Tax Credit Program on Job Creation and Fiscal Benefits," Upjohn Working Papers and Journal Articles 12-185, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
    2. Timothy J. Bartik & Kevin Hollenbeck, 2012. "An Analysis of the Employment Effects of the Washington High Technology Business and Occupation (B&O) Tax Credit," Upjohn Working Papers and Journal Articles 12-187, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.

    More about this item


    Taxation ; State finance;


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedfer:y:2010:p:13-28. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Research Library). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.