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Growth and inflation: a cross-country study

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  • Brian Motley

Abstract

This paper examines the effect of inflation on real growth in a Solow growth model using data from a cross section of countries over a 30-year period. The advantage of using a theoretical model is that it reduces the risk that the results will reflect data-mining. The results suggest that the 5 percentage point reduction in inflation from the 1970s to the 1980s would increase the growth rate of real GDP per head by between 0.1 and 0.5 percentage point. This effect would be worth between 15 percent and 140 percent of one year's income. Even the lower of these projections would be larger than most estimates of the costs of bringing inflation down.

Suggested Citation

  • Brian Motley, 1998. "Growth and inflation: a cross-country study," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 15-28.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfer:y:1998:p:15-28:n:1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Brian Motley, 1994. "Growth and inflation: a cross-country study," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 94-08, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    2. Laurence Ball, 1993. "How costly is disinflation? The historical evidence," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Nov, pages 17-28.
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    7. Robert Mundell, 1963. "Inflation and Real Interest," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 71(3), pages 280-280.
    8. Nehru, Vikram & Swanson, Eric & Dubey, Ashutosh, 1995. "A new database on human capital stock in developing and industrial countries: Sources, methodology, and results," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 379-401, April.
    9. K. Sato, 1966. "On the Adjustment Time in Neo-classical Growth Models," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 33(3), pages 263-268.
    10. Grimes, Arthur, 1991. "The effects of inflation on growth: some international evidence," MPRA Paper 68526, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Martin S. Feldstein, 1997. "The Costs and Benefits of Going from Low Inflation to Price Stability," NBER Chapters, in: Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, pages 123-166, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jaganath Behera & Alok Kumar Mishra, 2017. "The Recent Inflation Crisis and Long-run Economic Growth in India: An Empirical Survey of Threshold Level of Inflation," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 6(1), pages 105-132, June.
    2. Arif Khan & Gul Zeb Chaudhary, 2020. "Determinants Of Inflation In Case Of Pakistan," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 9(4), pages 151-161, December.
    3. Bitros, G.C. & Panas, E.J., 1999. "Another Look at the Inflation-Productivity Trade-Off," Athens University of Economics and Business 114, Athens University of Economics and Business, Department of International and European Economic Studies.
    4. Burdekin, Richard C.K. & Denzau, Arthur T. & Keil, Manfred W. & Sitthiyot, Thitithep & Willett, Thomas D., 2004. "When does inflation hurt economic growth? Different nonlinearities for different economies," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 519-532, September.
    5. Shu-Hua Chen, 2015. "Fiscal and Monetary Policies in a Transactions-Based Endogenous Growth Model with Imperfect Competition," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 66(1), pages 89-111, March.
    6. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Maria Antoinette Silgoner, 2004. "Growth effects of inflation in Europe: How low is too low, how high is too high?," Vienna Economics Papers vie0411, University of Vienna, Department of Economics.
    7. Nicholas Apergis, 2005. "Inflation Uncertainty And Growth: Evidence From Panel Data," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(2), pages 186-197, June.
    8. George Bitros & Epaminondas Panas, 2006. "The inflation-productivity trade-off revisited," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 51-65, August.
    9. Takahiro SATO, 2017. "India in the World Economy: Inferences from Empirics of Economic Growth," ESRI Discussion paper series 338, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    10. Shu‐Hua Chen, 2018. "The Credit‐Channel Transmission Mechanism And The Nonlinear Growth And Welfare Effects Of Inflation And Taxes," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(2), pages 724-744, April.
    11. Hayat, Zafar & Balli, Faruk & Rehman, Muhammad, 2018. "Does inflation bias stabilize real growth? Evidence from Pakistan," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 1083-1103.
    12. Franz R. Hahn & Peter Mooslechner, 1999. "Zur Fundierung des Designs des Europäischen Zentralbanksystems," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 72(1), pages 49-60, January.
    13. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Maria Antoinette Silgoner, 2004. "Groth effects of inflation in Europe: How low is too low, how high is too high?," Vienna Economics Papers 0411, University of Vienna, Department of Economics.

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