IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedfel/y2013ijuly15n2013-20.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The path of wage growth and unemployment

Author

Listed:
  • Mary C. Daly
  • Bart Hobijn
  • Timothy Ni

Abstract

After the Great Recession, the fraction of U.S. workers whose wages were frozen reached a record high. Many employers would have preferred to cut wages, but couldn?t do so because of the reluctance of workers to accept reduced compensation. These pent-up wage cuts initially propped up wage growth, reduced hiring, and pushed up unemployment. But, over the past 2 years, inflation has eroded the real value of frozen wages, slowing wage growth and reducing the unemployment rate. This is similar to, but more pronounced than, the pattern observed in past recessions.

Suggested Citation

  • Mary C. Daly & Bart Hobijn & Timothy Ni, 2013. "The path of wage growth and unemployment," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue july15.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:y:2013:i:july15:n:2013-20
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2013/july/wages-unemployment-rate/
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2013/july/wages-unemployment-rate/el2013-20.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. A. W. Phillips, 1958. "The Relation Between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates in the United Kingdom, 1861–1957," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 25(100), pages 283-299, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mr. Stephan Danninger, 2016. "What's Up with U.S. Wage Growth and Job Mobility?," IMF Working Papers 2016/122, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Chen, Siyan & Desiderio, Saul, 2020. "Job duration and inequality," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 14, pages 1-27.
    3. Chen, Siyan & Desiderio, Saul, 2018. "Computational evidence on the distributive properties of monetary policy," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 12, pages 1-32.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Carlos Medel, 2017. "Forecasting Chilean inflation with the hybrid new keynesian Phillips curve: globalisation, combination, and accuracy," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 20(3), pages 004-050, December.
    2. Tomasz Grodzicki & Mateusz Jankiewicz, 2020. "Forecasting the Level of Unemployment, Inflation and Wages: The Case of Sweden," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(Special 2), pages 400-409.
    3. Christian Johnson & George G Kaufman, 2007. "Un banco, con cualquier otro nombre…," Boletín, CEMLA, vol. 0(4), pages 185-199, Octubre-d.
    4. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1996. "Nobel Lecture: Monetary Neutrality," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(4), pages 661-682, August.
    5. Brown, Sarah & Taylor, Karl, 2015. "The reservation wage curve: Evidence from the UK," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 22-24.
    6. Julie L. Hotchkiss & Robert E. Moore, 2022. "Some Like it Hot: Assessing Longer-Term Labor Market Benefits from a High-Pressure Economy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 18(2), pages 193-243, June.
    7. Edward Nelson, 2020. "Seven Fallacies Concerning Milton Friedman's “The Role of Monetary Policy”," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(1), pages 145-164, February.
    8. Frank Iyekoretin Ogbeide & Hilary Kanwanye & Sunday Kadiri, 2016. "Revisiting the Determinants of Unemployment in Nigeria: Do Resource Dependence and Financial Development Matter?," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 28(4), pages 430-443, December.
    9. Pierpaolo Benigno & Luca Antonio Ricci, 2011. "The Inflation-Output Trade-Off with Downward Wage Rigidities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(4), pages 1436-1466, June.
    10. Jordi Galí & Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2012. "Unemployment in an Estimated New Keynesian Model," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 26(1), pages 329-360.
    11. Vincent Dadam & Nicola Viegi, 2021. "Estimating a New Keynesian Wage Phillips Curve," Working Papers 202107, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    12. Zhao, Xiaojun & Shang, Pengjian & Lin, Aijing, 2017. "Transfer mutual information: A new method for measuring information transfer to the interactions of time series," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 467(C), pages 517-526.
    13. Aurélien Goutsmedt, 2021. "From the Stagflation to the Great Inflation: Explaining the US economy of the 1970s," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 131(3), pages 557-582.
    14. Pablo Pincheira & Hernán Rubio, 2010. "The Low Predictive Power of Simple Phillips Curves in Chile: A Real-Time Evaluation," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 559, Central Bank of Chile.
    15. Adriana Cornea‐Madeira & João Madeira, 2022. "Econometric Analysis of Switching Expectations in UK Inflation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(3), pages 651-673, June.
    16. Jordi Galí, 2015. "Insider-outsider labor markets, hysteresis and monetary policy," Economics Working Papers 1506, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jun 2020.
    17. Gerlach, Stefan & Lydon, Reamonn & Stuart, Rebecca, 2015. "Unemployment and inflation in Ireland: 1926-2012," CFS Working Paper Series 514, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    18. Peter Hooper & Frederic S. Mishkin & Amir Sufi, 2019. "Prospects for Inflation in a High Pressure Economy: Is the Phillips Curve Dead or is It Just Hibernating?," NBER Working Papers 25792, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Hideaki Aoyama & Corrado Di Guilmi & Yoshi Fujiwara & Hiroshi Yoshikawa, 2021. "Dual Labor Market and the "Phillips Curve Puzzle"," Papers 2103.06482, arXiv.org.
    20. Peter Rodenburg, 2016. "How Full is Full Employment?How Tools and Not Theory Explained Full Employment," HISTORY OF ECONOMIC THOUGHT AND POLICY, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2016(2), pages 5-25.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Wages;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:y:2013:i:july15:n:2013-20. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Research Library (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbsfus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.