IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedfel/97727.html

Why Is Prime-Age Labor Force Participation So High?

Author

Listed:
  • Deepika Baskar Prabhakar
  • Robert G. Valletta

Abstract

The labor force participation (LFP) rate for prime-age workers surged from early 2021 through early 2023, especially for women. This helped reduce the large shortfall of available workers relative to available jobs that emerged during the recovery from the pandemic. Analysis of state labor markets indicates that the cyclical response of prime-age LFP was much more pronounced during the two most recent business cycles than in prior ones. This state-level relationship weakened in 2023, however, suggesting that the cyclical gains in prime-age LFP are winding down.

Suggested Citation

  • Deepika Baskar Prabhakar & Robert G. Valletta, 2024. "Why Is Prime-Age Labor Force Participation So High?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2024(03), pages 1-6, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:97727
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.frbsf.org/wp-content/uploads/el2024-03.pdf
    File Function: Full text - article PDF
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christopher J. Erceg & Andrew T. Levin, 2014. "Labor Force Participation and Monetary Policy in the Wake of the Great Recession," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(S2), pages 3-49, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Deepika Baskar Prabhakar & Sabrina J. Considine & Brandon E. Miskanic & Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau, 2025. "What’s Driving Labor Force Participation Among Women?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2025(04), pages 1-5, February.
    2. Mary C. Daly, 2024. "Landing Softly Is Just the Beginning," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2024(28), pages 1-6, October.
    3. Brandon E. Miskanic & Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau & Cindy Zhao, 2024. "To Retire or Keep Working after a Pandemic?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2024(08), pages 1-5, March.
    4. Angela Guo & Pawel Krolikowski, 2024. "Disability, Immigration, and Postpandemic Labor Supply," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2024(05), pages 1-8, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Idriss Fontaine, 2021. "Uncertainty and Labour Force Participation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(2), pages 437-471, April.
    2. Michelle L. Barnes & Fabia Gumbau-Brisa & Giovanni P. Olivei, 2013. "Cyclical versus secular: decomposing the recent decline in U.S. labor force participation," Public Policy Brief, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    3. Stephanie Aaronson & Tomaz Cajner & Bruce Fallick & Felix Galbis-Reig & Christopher Smith & William Wascher, 2014. "Labor Force Participation: Recent Developments and Future Prospects," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 45(2 (Fall)), pages 197-275.
    4. Willem Van Zandweghe, 2017. "The Changing Cyclicality of Labor Force Participation," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q III, pages 5-34.
    5. Gonul Sengul & Murat Tasci, 2014. "Unemployment Flows, Participation and the Natural Rate for Turkey," Working Papers 1435, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    6. Regis Barnichon & Andrew Figura, 2016. "Declining Desire to Work and Downward Trends in Unemployment and Participation," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 30(1), pages 449-494.
    7. John G. Fernald & Robert E. Hall & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2017. "The Disappointing Recovery of Output after 2009," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 48(1 (Spring), pages 1-81.
    8. Andrea Ajello & Isabel Cairó & Vasco Curdia & Thomas A. Lubik & Albert Queraltó, 2020. "Monetary Policy Tradeoffs and the Federal Reserve's Dual Mandate," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-066, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. Sengul, Gonul & Tasci, Murat, 2020. "Unemployment flows, participation, and the natural rate of unemployment: Evidence from turkey," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    10. Kurozumi, Takushi & Van Zandweghe, Willem, 2025. "Supply shocks, employment gap, and monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    11. International Monetary Fund, 2014. "Philippines: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2014/246, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Matthew C. Harris & Lawrence M. Kessler & Matthew N. Murray & Beth Glenn, 2020. "Prescription Opioids and Labor Market Pains: The Effect of Schedule II Opioids on Labor Force Participation and Unemployment," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 55(4), pages 1319-1364.
    13. Nucci, Francesco & Riggi, Marianna, 2018. "Labor force participation, wage rigidities, and inflation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 274-292.
    14. James Bullard & Aarti Singh, 2020. "Nominal GDP Targeting with Heterogeneous Labor Supply," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(1), pages 37-77, February.
    15. Dario Caldara & Etienne Gagnon & Enrique Martínez García & Christopher J. Neely, 2021. "Monetary Policy and Economic Performance Since the Financial Crisis," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 103(4), pages 425-460, October.
    16. Daniel Monte & Roberto Pinheiro, 2021. "Labor market competition over the business cycle," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 59(4), pages 1593-1615, October.
    17. Shannon Bold & Laurence Harris, 2018. "Identifying monetary policy rules in South Africa with inflation expectations and unemployment," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2018-43, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    18. Iwasaki, Yuto & Muto, Ichiro & Shintani, Mototsugu, 2021. "Missing wage inflation? Estimating the natural rate of unemployment in a nonlinear DSGE model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    19. Liying Luo & James Hodges, 2019. "The Age-Period-Cohort-Interaction Model for Describing and Investigating Inter-Cohort Deviations and Intra-Cohort Life-Course Dynamics," Papers 1906.08357, arXiv.org.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:97727. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Research Library (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbsfus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.