Rational speculative bubbles in MENA stock markets
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the existence of rational speculative bubbles in the Middle East and North African (MENA) stock markets. Design/methodology/approach – To complement shortcomings of the traditional bubble tests, such as unit root tests and cointegration tests, mainly relying on expectations of future steams of dividends, the authors employ fractional integration tests and duration dependence tests. Findings – Despite recent extreme fluctuations of MENA stock markets, fractional integration tests built on autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average models do not support the possibility of bubbles in the MENA stock markets. Similarly, duration dependence tests based on nonparametric Nelson-Aalen hazard functions not only reject the existence of bubbles but also support equality of hazard functions between domestic and the US-based investors without regard to the rapid financial liberalization and integration in the MENA stock markets. Originality/value – The reliable results of bubble tests of the MENA stock markets provide domestic and international investors as well as policy makers with invaluable benchmark to better understand the irregular and highly fluctuating stock market behaviors of the MENA stock markets compared to other developed and emerging stock markets. For domestic and international investors, the formal analysis of MENA stock markets behavior including rational speculative bubbles will help them in their portfolio decisions and hedging purposes. Similarly, the empirical results of bubble tests in the paper will be also helpful to policymakers in MENA countries to take actions to improve the functioning of these dynamic markets.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 27 (2010)
Issue (Month): 3 (August)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.emeraldinsight.com|
|Order Information:|| Postal: Emerald Group Publishing, Howard House, Wagon Lane, Bingley, BD16 1WA, UK|
Web: http://emeraldgrouppublishing.com/products/journals/journals.htm?id=sef Email:
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- A. Colin Cameron & Anthony D. Hall, 2003. "A Survival Analysis of Australian Equity Mutual Funds," Research Paper Series 94, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
- Buehler, Stefan & Kaiser, Christian & Jaeger, Franz, 2006.
"Merge or fail? The determinants of mergers and bankruptcies in Switzerland, 1995-2000,"
Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 88-95, January.
- Stefan Buehler & Christian Kaiser & Franz Jaeger, 2005. "Merge or Fail? The Determinants of Mergers and Bankruptcies in Switzerland, 1995-2000," SOI - Working Papers 0506, Socioeconomic Institute - University of Zurich.
- Chris Brooks & Apostolos Katsaris, 2003. "Rational Speculative Bubbles: An Empirical Investigation of the London Stock Exchange," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(4), pages 319-346, October.
- Refet Gurkaynak, 2005.
"Econometric Tests of Asset Price Bubbles: Taking Stock,"
- Refet S. Gürkaynak, 2008. "Econometric Tests Of Asset Price Bubbles: Taking Stock ," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(1), pages 166-186, 02.
- Refet S. Gürkaynak, 2005. "Econometric tests of asset price bubbles: taking stock," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-04, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Tsangyao Chang & Chi-Chen Chiu & Chien-Chung Nieh, 2007. "Rational bubbles in the US stock market? Further evidence from a nonparametric cointegration test," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(7), pages 517-521.
- M M Tudela, 2001.
"Explaining Currency Crises: A Duration Model Approach,"
CEP Discussion Papers
dp0487, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Tudela, Merxe, 2004. "Explaining currency crises: a duration model approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 799-816, September.
- J. Cunado & L. A. Gil-Alana & F. Perez de Gracia, 2007. "Testing for stock market bubbles using nonlinear models and fractional integration," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(16), pages 1313-1321.
- Taisei Kaizoji, 2000.
"Speculative bubbles and crashes in stock market: an interacting-agent model of speculative activity,"
- Kaizoji, Taisei, 2000. "Speculative bubbles and crashes in stock markets: an interacting-agent model of speculative activity," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 287(3), pages 493-506.
- Koustas, Zisimos & Serletis, Apostolos, 2005. "Rational bubbles or persistent deviations from market fundamentals?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(10), pages 2523-2539, October.
- Taylor, Mark P. & Peel, David A., 1998. "Periodically collapsing stock price bubbles: a robust test," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 221-228, November.
- Bing Zhang, 2008. "Duration dependence test for rational bubbles in Chinese stock market," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(8), pages 635-639.
- McQueen, Grant & Thorley, Steven, 1994. "Bubbles, Stock Returns, and Duration Dependence," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29(03), pages 379-401, September.
- Kirman, Alan & Teyssiere, Gilles, 2005. "Testing for bubbles and change-points," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 765-799, April.
- L. Randall Wray & Stephanie Bell, 2004. "Introduction," Chapters, in: Credit and State Theories of Money, chapter 1 Edward Elgar.
- Cochran, Steven J. & DeFina, Robert H., 1996. "Predictability in real exchange rates: Evidence from parametric hazard models," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 125-147.
- Cunado, J. & Gil-Alana, L.A. & de Gracia, F. Perez, 2005. "A test for rational bubbles in the NASDAQ stock index: A fractionally integrated approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(10), pages 2633-2654, October.
- Chan, Kalok & McQueen, Grant & Thorley, Steven, 1998. "Are there rational speculative bubbles in Asian stock markets?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 6(1-2), pages 125-151, May.
- Chan, Hing Lin & Lee, Shu Kam & Woo, Kai-Yin, 2003. "An empirical investigation of price and exchange rate bubbles during the interwar European hyperinflations," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 327-344.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eme:sefpps:v:27:y:2010:i:3:p:247-264. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Louise Lister)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.