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Do Bubbles Spill Over? Estimating Financial Bubbles in Emerging Markets

  • Ozan Hatipoglu
  • Onur Uyar

The close correlation among the stock price indices of a relatively large number of developed and emerging markets indicates that bubbles might spill over from one country to another. To test for such spillover effects, we estimate the bubble component of price changes using a nonlinear, structural, state-space model with time-variable parameters. We apply directionality tests to bubbles formed in the United States and Turkey. We find that bubbles originating in the United States lead to bubbles in Turkey. We provide empirical evidence on bubbles formed during the major financial crises of the past two decades in Turkey and the past century in the United States. Despite the improvement in fundamentals and overall economic performance, we find the Turkish asset market is still subject to volatile financial bubbles that might stem from abroad.

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Paper provided by Bogazici University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 2011/06.

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Date of creation: Jun 2011
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Handle: RePEc:bou:wpaper:2011/06
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  1. Geert Bekaert & Robert J. Hodrick & Xiaoyan Zhang, 2005. "International Stock Return Comovements," NBER Working Papers 11906, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Wu, Yangru, 1995. "Are there rational bubbles in foreign exchange markets? Evidence from an alternative test," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 27-46, February.
  3. Refet S. Gürkaynak, 2005. "Econometric tests of asset price bubbles: taking stock," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-04, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  4. van Norden Simon & Vigfusson Robert, 1998. "Avoiding the Pitfalls: Can Regime-Switching Tests Reliably Detect Bubbles?," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-24, April.
  5. Driffill, John & Sola, Martin, 1998. "Intrinsic bubbles and regime-switching," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 357-373, July.
  6. Peter Rappoport & Eugene N. White, 1991. "Was there a bubble in the 1929 Stock Market?," NBER Working Papers 3612, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Behzad T. Diba & Herschel I. Grossman, 1985. "Rational Bubbles in Stock Prices?," NBER Working Papers 1779, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Rita D'Ecclesia & Mauro Costantini, 2006. "Comovements and correlations in international stock markets," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(6-7), pages 567-582.
  9. Koustas, Zisimos & Serletis, Apostolos, 2005. "Rational bubbles or persistent deviations from market fundamentals?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(10), pages 2523-2539, October.
  10. Simon van Norden & Huntley Schaller, 2002. "Fads or bubbles?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 335-362.
  11. Hall, Stephen G & Psaradakis, Zacharias & Sola, Martin, 1999. "Detecting Periodically Collapsing Bubbles: A Markov-Switching Unit Root Test," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(2), pages 143-54, March-Apr.
  12. Dezhbakhsh, Hashem & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli, 1990. "On the Presence of Speculative Bubbles in Stock Prices," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(01), pages 101-112, March.
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