Modeling UBI in Finland: challenging the infeasibility & mass resignation myths

The Finnish universal basic income (UBI) experiment of 2017–2018 was a dead end (Hiilamo, 2022). This study seeks to first understand the current societal attitudes that hinder UBI introduction in Finland, and to evaluate these attitudes in light of self-reported expected future behavior upon a UBI introduction. Secondly, the study seeks to contribute to further UBI model design. To do this, the study utilizes thematic analysis of semi-structured interviews with working people, HR and employers (n = 26), and self-reported survey data (n = 371). The study finds that while interviewees were particularly concerned of a negative labor market impact upon a UBI introduction, their own reported future behavior didn’t match their broader concerns. Labor market impact of a UBI introduction would be expected to be minimal based on survey responses. While interviewees expressed worries about feasibility and fairness of a UBI, modeling based on the survey responses showed that feasibility and fairness could be achieved with a taxable UBI, alongside an increase of tax rates for the highest income levels, the introduction of a minimum hourly salary and other interventions. The study’s importance lies in exploring the attitude-behavior gap in the argumentation that has led to loss of momentum for the UBI scheme in Finland. The study finally contributes more data for policy makers in Finland and elsewhere for UBI model design.