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Quantifying the impact of extreme weather event on intercity mobility in urban agglomerations: A Bayesian structural time series analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Li, Tao
  • Wei, Shanshan
  • Sun, Yan
  • Du, Fangye
  • Wang, Jiaoe

Abstract

Understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics of human mobility responses to extreme weather events holds critical significance for developing climate adaptation strategies and fortifying socio-ecological system resilience. Despite proliferating intra-city mobility studies, comprehensive investigations of intercity mobility pattern under compound weather events remain insufficient in an era of escalating climate-related disasters. To fill this gap, this paper employs the Bayesian Structural Time Series model to infer the intercity mobility impact of heavy rainfall event. The Zhengzhou “7.20” heavy rainfall in 2021 in the Central Plains Urban Agglomeration (CPUA) of China is selected as a case study. The results indicated a significant rainfall-induced disruption to intercity mobility. Outflows and inflows declined by 30.65 % and 25.92 % on average, respectively. Spatially, impacts exhibited pronounced geographical congruence, with peak effects concentrated in Zhengzhou and adjacent cities. The greater disruption to outflows (vs. inflows) indicates asymmetric network resilience. For Zhengzhou, outflows showed abrupt decline–rapid rebound dynamics, while inflows demonstrated rapid initial drop followed by extended gradual recovery. Conversely, other CPUA cities exhibited gradual recovery trajectories for both inflows and outflows. Cities with stronger pre-event social connectivity (measured by baseline mobility) experienced smaller mobility reductions, while betweenness centrality reflecting a city's intermediary capacity within high speed rail network correlated positively with relative impact magnitude. These findings provide actionable insights for designing climate-resilient transportation networks in metropolitan regions.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Tao & Wei, Shanshan & Sun, Yan & Du, Fangye & Wang, Jiaoe, 2026. "Quantifying the impact of extreme weather event on intercity mobility in urban agglomerations: A Bayesian structural time series analysis," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:176:y:2026:i:c:s0967070x25004688
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103925
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