IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/trapol/v172y2025ics0967070x25002938.html

Exploring the nonlinear association between bike-sharing and household car ownership in Shenzhen, China

Author

Listed:
  • Zhou, Meng
  • Huang, Chuqi
  • Yang, Yuhan
  • Cao, Jason
  • Huang, Sixian

Abstract

Although many studies have explored the influences of bike-sharing on car use, few have emphasized its potential to reduce the growth in car ownership, which encourages car dependence. Using travel survey and bike-sharing data from Shenzhen, a city with rapidly growing car dependence, we developed gradient boosting decision trees models to capture the nonlinear relationship between bike-sharing and car ownership, while controlling for household and built environment characteristics, as well as other travel alternatives. The results suggest that bike-sharing is a strong predictor of car ownership, and they have a negative and nonlinear association. The association between bike-sharing and car ownership is also stronger in suburban areas than in urban areas. The findings highlight the potential of shared micromobility services in alleviating car dependence and underscore the importance of extensive spatial coverage in reducing car ownership. Furthermore, bike-sharing could be a viable alternative in mitigating car ownership besides built environment interventions and rail transit investments.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhou, Meng & Huang, Chuqi & Yang, Yuhan & Cao, Jason & Huang, Sixian, 2025. "Exploring the nonlinear association between bike-sharing and household car ownership in Shenzhen, China," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:172:y:2025:i:c:s0967070x25002938
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.07.040
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0967070X25002938
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.07.040?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dargay, Joyce M., 2002. "Determinants of car ownership in rural and urban areas: a pseudo-panel analysis," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 351-366, September.
    2. Ralph Buehler & John Pucher & Regine Gerike & Thomas Götschi, 2017. "Reducing car dependence in the heart of Europe: lessons from Germany, Austria, and Switzerland," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(1), pages 4-28, January.
    3. Reid Ewing & Robert Cervero, 2010. "Travel and the Built Environment," Journal of the American Planning Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 76(3), pages 265-294.
    4. Zhang, Yongping & Mi, Zhifu, 2018. "Environmental benefits of bike sharing: A big data-based analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 220(C), pages 296-301.
    5. João Filipe Teixeira & Cecília Silva & Frederico Moura e Sá, 2021. "Empirical evidence on the impacts of bikesharing: a literature review," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(3), pages 329-351, May.
    6. Goodman, Anna & Cheshire, James, 2014. "Inequalities in the London bicycle sharing system revisited: impacts of extending the scheme to poorer areas but then doubling prices," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 272-279.
    7. Sabreena Anowar & Naveen Eluru & Luis F. Miranda-Moreno, 2016. "Analysis of vehicle ownership evolution in Montreal, Canada using pseudo panel analysis," Transportation, Springer, vol. 43(3), pages 531-548, May.
    8. Holmgren, Johan, 2020. "The effect of public transport quality on car ownership – A source of wider benefits?," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    9. Wang, Mingshu & Zhou, Xiaolu, 2017. "Bike-sharing systems and congestion: Evidence from US cities," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 147-154.
    10. Tao, Tao & Cao, Jason, 2024. "Ineffective built environment interventions: How to reduce driving in American suburbs?," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    11. Ye, Jianhong & Wang, Daoge & Li, Xi & Axhausen, Kay W. & Jin, Yong, 2021. "Assessing one-way carsharing’s impacts on vehicle ownership: Evidence from Shanghai with an international comparison," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 16-32.
    12. Zhao, Pengjun & Zhang, Yixue, 2018. "Travel behaviour and life course: Examining changes in car use after residential relocation in Beijing," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 41-53.
    13. Shaheen, Susan & Guzman, Stacey & Zhang, Hua, 2010. "Bikesharing in Europe, the Americas, and Asia: Past, Present, and Future," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt79v822k5, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    14. Shen, Qing & Chen, Peng & Pan, Haixiao, 2016. "Factors affecting car ownership and mode choice in rail transit-supported suburbs of a large Chinese city," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 31-44.
    15. Bhat, Chandra R. & Guo, Jessica Y., 2007. "A comprehensive analysis of built environment characteristics on household residential choice and auto ownership levels," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 41(5), pages 506-526, June.
    16. Ma, Xinwei & Ji, Yanjie & Yang, Mingyuan & Jin, Yuchuan & Tan, Xu, 2018. "Understanding bikeshare mode as a feeder to metro by isolating metro-bikeshare transfers from smart card data," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 57-69.
    17. Van Acker, Veronique & Witlox, Frank, 2010. "Car ownership as a mediating variable in car travel behaviour research using a structural equation modelling approach to identify its dual relationship," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 65-74.
    18. Campbell, Kayleigh B. & Brakewood, Candace, 2017. "Sharing riders: How bikesharing impacts bus ridership in New York City," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 264-282.
    19. Ding, Chuan & Cao, Xinyu, 2019. "How does the built environment at residential and work locations affect car ownership? An application of cross-classified multilevel model," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 37-45.
    20. Jia, Yingnan & Fu, Hua, 2019. "Association between innovative dockless bicycle sharing programs and adopting cycling in commuting and non-commuting trips," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 12-21.
    21. Dargay, Joyce & Hanly, Mark, 2007. "Volatility of car ownership, commuting mode and time in the UK," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 41(10), pages 934-948, December.
    22. Nolan, Anne, 2010. "A dynamic analysis of household car ownership," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 44(6), pages 446-455, July.
    23. Sabouri, Sadegh & Tian, Guang & Ewing, Reid & Park, Keunhyun & Greene, William, 2021. "The built environment and vehicle ownership modeling: Evidence from 32 diverse regions in the U.S," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    24. Hamilton, Timothy L. & Wichman, Casey J., 2018. "Bicycle infrastructure and traffic congestion: Evidence from DC's Capital Bikeshare," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 72-93.
    25. Shaheen, Susan A & Guzman, Stacey & Zhang, Hua, 2010. "Bikesharing in Europe, the Americas, and Asia: Past, Present and Future," Institute of Transportation Studies, Research Reports, Working Papers, Proceedings qt6qg8q6ft, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Berkeley.
    26. Yang, Jun & Liu, Ying & Qin, Ping & Liu, Antung A., 2014. "A review of Beijing׳s vehicle registration lottery: Short-term effects on vehicle growth and fuel consumption," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 157-166.
    27. Potoglou, Dimitris & Kanaroglou, Pavlos S., 2008. "Modelling car ownership in urban areas: a case study of Hamilton, Canada," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 42-54.
    28. Yang, Shuo & Zhou, Leyu & Zhang, Zhehao & Sun, Shan & Guo, Liang, 2024. "Examining the correlation of household electric vehicle ownership: Insights for emerging mobility and planning," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    29. Yi Zhu, 2022. "Can bicycle sharing mitigate vehicle emission in Chinese large cities? Estimation based on mode shift analysis," Transportation, Springer, vol. 49(6), pages 1627-1648, December.
    30. Zheyan Chen & Dea van Lierop & Dick Ettema, 2020. "Dockless bike-sharing systems: what are the implications?," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(3), pages 333-353, May.
    31. Yao, Mingzhu & Wang, Donggen, 2018. "Mobility and travel behavior in urban China: The role of institutional factors," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 122-131.
    32. Martin, Elliot W. & Shaheen, Susan A., 2014. "Evaluating public transit modal shift dynamics in response to bikesharing: a tale of two U.S. cities," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 315-324.
    33. Sun, Shan & Guo, Liang & Yang, Shuo & Cao, Jason, 2024. "Exploring the contributions of Ebike ownership, transit access, and the built environment to car ownership in a developing city," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    34. Martin, Elliot PhD & Shaheen, Susan PhD, 2014. "Evaluating Public Transit Modal Shift Dynamics In Response to Bikesharing: A Tale of Two U.S. Cities," Institute of Transportation Studies, Research Reports, Working Papers, Proceedings qt6x29n876, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Berkeley.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yi Zhu, 2022. "Can bicycle sharing mitigate vehicle emission in Chinese large cities? Estimation based on mode shift analysis," Transportation, Springer, vol. 49(6), pages 1627-1648, December.
    2. Yao, Di & Zhang, Chunqin & Li, Jinpei, 2025. "How does bike-sharing prompt the modal shift from cars to public transit?," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    3. Kim, Minjun & Cho, Gi-Hyoug, 2021. "Analysis on bike-share ridership for origin-destination pairs: Effects of public transit route characteristics and land-use patterns," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    4. Vega-Gonzalo, Maria & Gomez, Juan & Christidis, Panayotis, 2023. "How has COVID-19 changed private car use in European urban areas? An analysis of the effect of socio-economic characteristics and mobility habits," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    5. Sun, Shan & Guo, Liang & Yang, Shuo & Cao, Jason, 2024. "Exploring the contributions of Ebike ownership, transit access, and the built environment to car ownership in a developing city," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    6. Mora, Rodrigo & Miranda-Marquez, Sebastián & Truffello, Ricardo & Sadarangani, Kabir P., 2024. "Bikesharing and ordinary cyclists from Chile: Comparing trips, attitudes, and health-behaviours," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    7. Alexandros Nikitas, 2019. "How to Save Bike-Sharing: An Evidence-Based Survival Toolkit for Policy-Makers and Mobility Providers," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-17, June.
    8. Laviolette, Jérôme & Morency, Catherine & Waygood, E.O.D., 2022. "A kilometer or a mile? Does buffer size matter when it comes to car ownership?," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    9. Shang, Wen-Long & Chen, Jinyu & Bi, Huibo & Sui, Yi & Chen, Yanyan & Yu, Haitao, 2021. "Impacts of COVID-19 pandemic on user behaviors and environmental benefits of bike sharing: A big-data analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 285(C).
    10. Mix, Richard & Hurtubia, Ricardo & Raveau, Sebastián, 2022. "Optimal location of bike-sharing stations: A built environment and accessibility approach," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 126-142.
    11. Kong, Hui & Chao, Hao & Fu, Wenyan & Lin, Diao & Zhang, Yongping, 2025. "Relationship between shared micromobility and public transit: The differences between shared bikes and shared E-bikes," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    12. Morton, Craig & Ali, Yasir, 2025. "The impact of congestion charging on car ownership: Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 181-191.
    13. Li, Chunzhi & Xiao, Wei & Zhang, Dayong & Ji, Qiang, 2021. "Low-carbon transformation of cities: Understanding the demand for dockless bike sharing in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    14. Song, Siqi & Diao, Mi & Feng, Chen-Chieh, 2021. "Effects of pricing and infrastructure on car ownership: A pseudo-panel-based dynamic model," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 115-126.
    15. Yuanyuan Zhang & Yuming Zhang, 2018. "Associations between Public Transit Usage and Bikesharing Behaviors in The United States," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-20, June.
    16. Basak, Ecem & Iris, Çağatay, 2026. "Urban life matters: The heterogeneous effects of on-demand bike-sharing platforms on urban public transit," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    17. Liu, Xize & Chen, Jingxu & Chen, Xuewu & Ning, Jiang, 2025. "Shared micro-mobility meets bus: A spatiotemporal heterogeneity analysis in Chinese medium-sized cities," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    18. De Vos, Jonas & Cheng, Long & Kamruzzaman, Md. & Witlox, Frank, 2021. "The indirect effect of the built environment on travel mode choice: A focus on recent movers," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    19. Link, Christoph & Strasser, Christoph & Hinterreiter, Michael, 2020. "Free-floating bikesharing in Vienna – A user behaviour analysis," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 168-182.
    20. Ding, Chuan & Zhou, Xinyu & Jason Cao, Xinyu & Yang, Jiawen, 2023. "Spatial and mediation analysis of the influences of residential and workplace built environments on commuting by car," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:172:y:2025:i:c:s0967070x25002938. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/30473/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.