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How does bike-sharing prompt the modal shift from cars to public transit?

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  • Yao, Di
  • Zhang, Chunqin
  • Li, Jinpei

Abstract

Transforming individual motorized travel into public transit travel is one of the effective ways to alleviate traffic congestion and reduce carbon emissions. Studies and practices have shown that bike-sharing can reduce private car travel by connecting with public transit, but the potential mechanism remains unclear. This study employs evolutionary game theory, simulation technology, and empirical models to theoretically depict the dynamic evolution of private car owners' travel mode under the combined effect of bike-sharing and public transit, and empirically explores the influencing mechanism of their travel modal shift behavior (from private cars to public transit integrated with bike-sharing) via a case study of Beijing, using data from official reports, mapping platform reports, and questionnaires. Results show that private car owners' shift willingness and internal values are fundamental to their modal shift behavior, while bike-sharing usefulness is a trigger. Bike-sharing exerts positive effects when the time cost it saves exceeds the sum of monetary and search costs. Additionally, the connection distance between bike-sharing and public transit has a significant threshold effect, with the most pronounced advantages when exceeding 1.5 km. Bike-sharing complements rail transit more strongly than buses. However, cooperation incentives for bike-sharing and public transit, and private car control policies are not always effective; weak incentives and controls may face a “failure dilemma”. This study provides theoretical explanations and empirical evidence for bike-sharing's role in promoting shifts from private cars to public transit and offers policy implications for integrating public transit and bike-sharing to alleviate urban traffic congestion.

Suggested Citation

  • Yao, Di & Zhang, Chunqin & Li, Jinpei, 2025. "How does bike-sharing prompt the modal shift from cars to public transit?," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:174:y:2025:i:c:s0967070x25004056
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103862
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