IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/trapol/v147y2024icp244-258.html

A system dynamics model for vehicle fleet transformation towards energy efficiency and low-carbon development: A case study of Sri Lanka and its strategies

Author

Listed:
  • De Silva, M. Mavin
  • Herath, Oshadhi K.
  • Nakayama, Tadachika
  • Kumarage, Amal S.

Abstract

Improving the energy efficiency of a vehicle fleet is a complex task that can be identified as having multiple variables and nonlinear feedback loops influenced by different mobility, socio-economical, and environmental factors. Due to the prevailing concerns on the fuel economy and vehicular emissions, formulating a clear policy for electric and other alternative mobility forms requires a clear decision support tool to adequately consider the complexities involved. This paper presents a novel System Dynamics (SD) approach based on the cause-and-effect analysis and feedback loop structures as a suitable tool. The proposed SD model comprises four sub-models: socio-economic, new vehicle registrations, environmental influence, and fuel economy and e-mobility policy measures. The study presents the analysis of historical data and results from the impact analysis of fuel economy policies in Sri Lanka, including the introduction of electric mobility. The authors leveraged the Vensim SD software package for modelling, expert-in-the-loop sensitivity analysis and optimization. Three strategic fuel economy and e-mobility policy intervention scenarios have been developed to estimate the forecasted fuel economy for Four-Wheeled Passenger Vehicles (FWPVs) as per strategic interventions to change the fuel type of new vehicles registered. It is shown that hybrid and electric FWPVs can improve fuel economy by between 13 and 39% by 2030.

Suggested Citation

  • De Silva, M. Mavin & Herath, Oshadhi K. & Nakayama, Tadachika & Kumarage, Amal S., 2024. "A system dynamics model for vehicle fleet transformation towards energy efficiency and low-carbon development: A case study of Sri Lanka and its strategies," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 244-258.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:147:y:2024:i:c:p:244-258
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2024.01.004
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0967070X24000040
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.tranpol.2024.01.004?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stepp, Matthew D. & Winebrake, James J. & Hawker, J. Scott & Skerlos, Steven J., 2009. "Greenhouse gas mitigation policies and the transportation sector: The role of feedback effects on policy effectiveness," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2774-2787, July.
    2. repec:aen:journl:2008v29-01-a06 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Sousa, Nuno & Almeida, Arminda & Coutinho-Rodrigues, João, 2020. "A multicriteria methodology for estimating consumer acceptance of alternative powertrain technologies," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 18-32.
    4. Dahl, Carol A., 2012. "Measuring global gasoline and diesel price and income elasticities," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 2-13.
    5. Egilmez, Gokhan & Tatari, Omer, 2012. "A dynamic modeling approach to highway sustainability: Strategies to reduce overall impact," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 46(7), pages 1086-1096.
    6. Frederick A. Armah & David O. Yawson & Alex A. N. M. Pappoe, 2010. "A Systems Dynamics Approach to Explore Traffic Congestion and Air Pollution Link in the City of Accra, Ghana," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 2(1), pages 1-14, January.
    7. Li, Lanhai & Hoffeman, Robert & McInnis, Bert & Jean de la Paix, Mupenzi & Li, Xuemei, 2012. "Impacts of alternative vehicle fuel policies on Canadian energy demand and emissions," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 92-100.
    8. Dargay, Joyce M, 2001. "The effect of income on car ownership: evidence of asymmetry," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 807-821, November.
    9. Galarraga, Ibon & Ramos, Ana & Lucas, Josu & Labandeira, Xavier, 2014. "The price of energy efficiency in the Spanish car market," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 272-282.
    10. Yan, Shiyu & de Bruin, Kelly & Dennehy, Emer & Curtis, John, 2021. "Climate policies for freight transport: Energy and emission projections through 2050," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 11-23.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gupta, Monika & Bandyopadhyay, Kaushik Ranjan & Singh, Sanjay K., 2019. "Measuring effectiveness of carbon tax on Indian road passenger transport: A system dynamics approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 341-354.
    2. Jianjun Dong & Yuanxian Xu & Bon-gang Hwang & Rui Ren & Zhilong Chen, 2019. "The Impact of Underground Logistics System on Urban Sustainable Development: A System Dynamics Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-21, February.
    3. Bakhat, Mohcine & Labandeira, Xavier & Labeaga, José M. & López-Otero, Xiral, 2017. "Elasticities of transport fuels at times of economic crisis: An empirical analysis for Spain," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(S1), pages 66-80.
    4. Meng Li & Guowei Hua & Haijun Huang, 2018. "A Multi-Modal Route Choice Model with Ridesharing and Public Transit," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-14, November.
    5. Barbora Mazúrová & Ján Kollár & Gabriela Nedelová, 2021. "Travel Mode of Commuting in Context of Subjective Well-Being—Experience from Slovakia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-17, March.
    6. Yoo, Sunbin & Koh, Kyung Woong & Yoshida, Yoshikuni & Wakamori, Naoki, 2019. "Revisiting Jevons's paradox of energy rebound: Policy implications and empirical evidence in consumer-oriented financial incentives from the Japanese automobile market, 2006–2016," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    7. Bénédicte Meurisse, 2015. "On the relevance of differentiated car purchase taxes in light of the rebound effect," Working Papers 1512, Chaire Economie du climat.
    8. Cristiano Codagnone & Giuseppe Alessandro Veltri & Francesco Bogliacino & Francisco Lupiáñez-Villanueva & George Gaskell & Andriy Ivchenko & Pietro Ortoleva & Francesco Mureddu, 2016. "Labels as nudges? An experimental study of car eco-labels," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 33(3), pages 403-432, December.
    9. Jou, Rong-Chang & Huang, Wen-Hsiu & Wu, Yuan-Chan & Chao, Ming-Che, 2012. "The asymmetric income effect on household vehicle ownership in Taiwan: A threshold cointegration approach," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 46(4), pages 696-706.
    10. Labandeira, Xavier & Labeaga, José M. & López-Otero, Xiral, 2017. "A meta-analysis on the price elasticity of energy demand," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 549-568.
    11. Scheiner, Joachim & Holz-Rau, Christian, 2013. "A comprehensive study of life course, cohort, and period effects on changes in travel mode use," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 167-181.
    12. Barter, Paul A., 2005. "A vehicle quota integrated with road usage pricing: A mechanism to complete the phase-out of high fixed vehicle taxes in Singapore," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 12(6), pages 525-536, November.
    13. Liddle, Brantley & Parker, Steven, 2022. "One more for the road: Reconsidering whether OECD gasoline income and price elasticities have changed over time," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    14. Scheitrum, Daniel, 2017. "Renewable Natural Gas as a Solution to Climate Goals: Response to California's Low Carbon Fuel Standard," MPRA Paper 77193, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Lucas W. Davis, 2017. "The Environmental Cost of Global Fuel Subsidies," The Energy Journal, , vol. 38(1_suppl), pages 7-28, June.
    16. Broberg, Thomas, 2014. "Relative income and the WTP for public goods - A case study of forest conservation in Sweden," CERE Working Papers 2014:6, CERE - the Center for Environmental and Resource Economics.
    17. Bergantino, Angela Stefania & Intini, Mario & Perdiguero, Jordi, 2020. "Pay cycles and fuel price: a quasi experimental approach," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1288, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    18. Christina Korting & Harry de Gorter & David R Just, 2019. "Who Will Pay for Increasing Biofuel Mandates? Incidence of the Renewable Fuel Standard Given a Binding Blend Wall," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 101(2), pages 492-506.
    19. Yumin Li & Yan Jiang & Shiyuan Li, 2022. "Price and income elasticities of electricity in China: Estimation and policy implications," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(S2), pages 76-90, November.
    20. Wang, Xiaoquan & Yin, Chaoying & Zhang, Junyi & Shao, Chunfu & Wang, Shengyou, 2021. "Nonlinear effects of residential and workplace built environment on car dependence," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:147:y:2024:i:c:p:244-258. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/30473/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.