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The factors influencing future concessionary bus patronage in Scotland and their implications for elsewhere

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  • Rye, Tom
  • Scotney, David

Abstract

Recent changes in UK transport policy have seen the introduction of more generous concessionary travel for elderly people on local buses. However, the increase in patronage that these changes may bring masks another significant influence on elderly people's bus use: changing car ownership. Using data from Scotland and the UK more generally, this paper provides an analysis of likely changes in bus use by elderly people over the next 13 years, showing that numbers of total trips would be likely to remain constant in the absence of scheme changes, in spite of a 19% increase in the total number of elderly people. The influence of such changes on the economics of bus operation more generally are then discussed.

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  • Rye, Tom & Scotney, David, 2004. "The factors influencing future concessionary bus patronage in Scotland and their implications for elsewhere," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 133-140, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:11:y:2004:i:2:p:133-140
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bresson, Georges & Dargay, Joyce & Madre, Jean-Loup & Pirotte, Alain, 2003. "The main determinants of the demand for public transport: a comparative analysis of England and France using shrinkage estimators," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 605-627, August.
    2. Joyce M. Dargay & Mark Hanly, 2002. "The Demand for Local Bus Services in England," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, University of Bath, vol. 36(1), pages 73-91, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Rye, Tom & Mykura, William, 2009. "Concessionary bus fares for older people in Scotland – are they achieving their objectives?," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 17(6), pages 451-456.
    2. Jones, Peter & Lucas, Karen, 2012. "The social consequences of transport decision-making: clarifying concepts, synthesising knowledge and assessing implications," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 4-16.
    3. Mifsud, Deborah & Attard, Maria & Ison, Stephen, 2017. "To drive or to use the bus? An exploratory study of older people in Malta," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 23-32.
    4. Schmöcker, Jan-Dirk & Quddus, Mohammed A. & Noland, Robert B. & Bell, Michael G.H., 2008. "Mode choice of older and disabled people: a case study of shopping trips in London," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 257-267.
    5. Wong, R.C.P. & Szeto, W.Y. & Yang, Linchuan & Li, Y.C. & Wong, S.C., 2018. "Public transport policy measures for improving elderly mobility," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 73-79.
    6. Shyr, Oliver F. & Andersson, David Emanuel & Cheng, Yu-Hsuan & Hsiao, Yu-Hsuan, 2017. "What explains rapid transit use? Evidence from 97 urbanized areas," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 162-169.
    7. Ruben G. Mercado & K. Bruce Newbold, 2009. "Car Driving and Public Transit Use in Canadian Metropolitan Areas: Focus on Elderly and Role of Health and Social Network Factors," Social and Economic Dimensions of an Aging Population Research Papers 243, McMaster University.
    8. Preston, John, 2016. "Big buses in a small country: The prospects for bus services in Wales," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 379-387.
    9. Mercado, Ruben & Páez, Antonio & Newbold, K. Bruce, 2010. "Transport policy and the provision of mobility options in an aging society: a case study of Ontario, Canada," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 649-661.
    10. Rye, Tom & Carreno, Michael, 2008. "Concessionary fares and bus operator reimbursement in Scotland and Wales: No better or no worse off?," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 242-250, July.

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