IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/trapol/v110y2021icp28-36.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Long-term pathways to deep decarbonization of the transport sector in the post-COVID world

Author

Listed:
  • Zhang, Runsen
  • Zhang, Junyi

Abstract

The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) crisis has influenced economies and societies across the globe and will thoroughly reshape our world as it continues to unfold. The pandemic is likely to trigger permanent long-term impacts on the transport sector in the post-COVID world. While a post-COVID “new normal” will be likely to incur negative consequences, it may provide an opportunity to move toward a more sustainable transport sector. This paper is aimed at developing an urban economic model with an energy focus to depict the dynamics of travel demand, energy consumption, and emissions in the post-COVID world. A set of scenarios was created according to model assumptions regarding lifestyle changes and policy interventions accompanied by the expected post-COVID new normal, to explore long-term pathways toward a deep decarbonization of the transport sector. Scenario simulations demonstrated that working from home, online shopping, and a bike-friendly infrastructure will contribute to a reduction in energy consumption and CO2 emissions, whereas a significant shift from bus to car transport and the decreasing use of car-sharing services will adversely affect CO2 emission reductions. The arrival of the post-COVID world may contribute to an 11% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2060, while the maximum reduction potential could be as high as 44%. Supporting policies and strategies for encouraging remote work and online shopping as well as for promoting safe public transport, active transport, and carpooling services are needed to strongly decarbonize the transport sector in the post-COVID world. Moreover, population distribution and urban structure may also be influenced by the arrival of the post-COVID new normal, which warrant further attention for urban planning.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhang, Runsen & Zhang, Junyi, 2021. "Long-term pathways to deep decarbonization of the transport sector in the post-COVID world," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 28-36.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:110:y:2021:i:c:p:28-36
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2021.05.018
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0967070X21001621
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.tranpol.2021.05.018?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pietzcker, Robert C. & Longden, Thomas & Chen, Wenying & Fu, Sha & Kriegler, Elmar & Kyle, Page & Luderer, Gunnar, 2014. "Long-term transport energy demand and climate policy: Alternative visions on transport decarbonization in energy-economy models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 95-108.
    2. Alex Anas & Yu Liu, 2007. "A Regional Economy, Land Use, And Transportation Model (Relu‐Tran©): Formulation, Algorithm Design, And Testing," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(3), pages 415-455, August.
    3. Hof, Andries F. & den Elzen, Michel G.J. & Admiraal, Annemiek & Roelfsema, Mark & Gernaat, David E.H.J. & van Vuuren, Detlef P., 2017. "Global and regional abatement costs of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and of enhanced action to levels well below 2°C and 1.5°C," Environmental Science & Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 30-40.
    4. Akashi, Osamu & Hijioka, Yasuaki & Masui, Toshihiko & Hanaoka, Tatsuya & Kainuma, Mikiko, 2012. "GHG emission scenarios in Asia and the world: The key technologies for significant reduction," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S3), pages 346-358.
    5. Alfredo Aloi & Borja Alonso & Juan Benavente & Rubén Cordera & Eneko Echániz & Felipe González & Claudio Ladisa & Raquel Lezama-Romanelli & Álvaro López-Parra & Vittorio Mazzei & Lucía Perrucci & Darí, 2020. "Effects of the COVID-19 Lockdown on Urban Mobility: Empirical Evidence from the City of Santander (Spain)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-18, May.
    6. Zhang, Junyi, 2020. "Transport policymaking that accounts for COVID-19 and future public health threats: A PASS approach," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 405-418.
    7. Fan Wu & Su Zhao & Bin Yu & Yan-Mei Chen & Wen Wang & Zhi-Gang Song & Yi Hu & Zhao-Wu Tao & Jun-Hua Tian & Yuan-Yuan Pei & Ming-Li Yuan & Yu-Ling Zhang & Fa-Hui Dai & Yi Liu & Qi-Min Wang & Jiao-Jiao , 2020. "A new coronavirus associated with human respiratory disease in China," Nature, Nature, vol. 579(7798), pages 265-269, March.
    8. Fan Wu & Su Zhao & Bin Yu & Yan-Mei Chen & Wen Wang & Zhi-Gang Song & Yi Hu & Zhao-Wu Tao & Jun-Hua Tian & Yuan-Yuan Pei & Ming-Li Yuan & Yu-Ling Zhang & Fa-Hui Dai & Yi Liu & Qi-Min Wang & Jiao-Jiao , 2020. "Author Correction: A new coronavirus associated with human respiratory disease in China," Nature, Nature, vol. 580(7803), pages 7-7, April.
    9. Anas, Alex & Kim, Ikki, 1996. "General Equilibrium Models of Polycentric Urban Land Use with Endogenous Congestion and Job Agglomeration," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 232-256, September.
    10. Zhang, Runsen & Fujimori, Shinichiro & Dai, Hancheng & Hanaoka, Tatsuya, 2018. "Contribution of the transport sector to climate change mitigation: Insights from a global passenger transport model coupled with a computable general equilibrium model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 76-88.
    11. David L. McCollum & Charlie Wilson & Michela Bevione & Samuel Carrara & Oreane Y. Edelenbosch & Johannes Emmerling & Céline Guivarch & Panagiotis Karkatsoulis & Ilkka Keppo & Volker Krey & Zhenhong Li, 2018. "Interaction of consumer preferences and climate policies in the global transition to low-carbon vehicles," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 3(8), pages 664-673, August.
    12. Chung, William & Zhou, Guanghui & Yeung, Iris M.H., 2013. "A study of energy efficiency of transport sector in China from 2003 to 2009," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 1066-1077.
    13. Solomon Hsiang & Daniel Allen & Sébastien Annan-Phan & Kendon Bell & Ian Bolliger & Trinetta Chong & Hannah Druckenmiller & Luna Yue Huang & Andrew Hultgren & Emma Krasovich & Peiley Lau & Jaecheol Le, 2020. "The effect of large-scale anti-contagion policies on the COVID-19 pandemic," Nature, Nature, vol. 584(7820), pages 262-267, August.
    14. Runsen Zhang & Kakuya Matsushima & Kiyoshi Kobayashi, 2016. "Land Use, Transport, And Carbon Emissions: A Computable Urban Economic Model For Changzhou, China," Review of Urban & Regional Development Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(3), pages 162-181, November.
    15. Saha, Jay & Barman, Bikash & Chouhan, Pradip, 2020. "Lockdown for COVID-19 and its impact on community mobility in India: An analysis of the COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports, 2020," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    16. Runsen Zhang & Kakuya Matsushima & Kiyoshi Kobayashi, 2017. "Computable urban economic model incorporated with economies of scale for urban agglomeration simulation," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 59(1), pages 231-254, July.
    17. Bastien Girod & Detlef Vuuren & Maria Grahn & Alban Kitous & Son Kim & Page Kyle, 2013. "Climate impact of transportation A model comparison," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 118(3), pages 595-608, June.
    18. Henri-David Waisman & Celine Guivarch & Franck Lecocq, 2013. "The transportation sector and low-carbon growth pathways: modelling urban, infrastructure, and spatial determinants of mobility," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(sup01), pages 106-129, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Elżbieta Szaruga & Elżbieta Załoga, 2022. "Environmental Management from the Point of View of the Energy Intensity of Road Freight Transport and Shocks," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(21), pages 1-22, November.
    2. Canabarro, N.I. & Silva-Ortiz, P. & Nogueira, L.A.H. & Cantarella, H. & Maciel-Filho, R. & Souza, G.M., 2023. "Sustainability assessment of ethanol and biodiesel production in Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, and Guatemala," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    3. Wojciech Kazimierz Szczepanek & Maciej Kruszyna, 2022. "The Impact of COVID-19 on the Choice of Transport Means in Journeys to Work Based on the Selected Example from Poland," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-9, June.
    4. Vega-Gonzalo, Maria & Gomez, Juan & Christidis, Panayotis, 2023. "How has COVID-19 changed private car use in European urban areas? An analysis of the effect of socio-economic characteristics and mobility habits," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    5. Pawluk De-Toledo, Katherine & O'Hern, Steve & Koppel, Sjaan, 2023. "A city-level transport vision for 2050: Reimagined since COVID-19," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 144-153.
    6. Inese Mavlutova & Jekaterina Kuzmina & Inga Uvarova & Dzintra Atstaja & Kristaps Lesinskis & Elina Mikelsone & Janis Brizga, 2021. "Does Car Sharing Contribute to Urban Sustainability from User-Motivation Perspectives?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(19), pages 1-20, September.
    7. Nicholas S. Caros & Jinhua Zhao, 2022. "Preparing urban mobility for the future of work," Papers 2201.01321, arXiv.org.
    8. Andreas Andreou & Panagiotis Fragkos & Theofano Fotiou & Faidra Filippidou, 2022. "Assessing Lifestyle Transformations and Their Systemic Effects in Energy-System and Integrated Assessment Models: A Review of Current Methods and Data," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-24, July.
    9. Anna Visvizi & Shahira Assem Abdel-Razek & Roman Wosiek & Radosław Malik, 2021. "Conceptualizing Walking and Walkability in the Smart City through a Model Composite w 2 Smart City Utility Index," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-20, December.
    10. Lehua Bi & Shaorui Zhou & Jianjie Ke & Xiaoming Song, 2023. "Knowledge-Mapping Analysis of Urban Sustainable Transportation Using CiteSpace," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-29, January.
    11. Bagdatli, Muhammed Emin Cihangir & Ipek, Fatima, 2022. "Transport mode preferences of university students in post-COVID-19 pandemic," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 20-32.
    12. Simona Šinko & Klemen Prah & Tomaž Kramberger, 2021. "Spatial Modelling of Modal Shift Due to COVID-19," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(13), pages 1-15, June.
    13. Bijoy Saha & Mahmudur Rahman Fatmi, 2021. "Simulating the Impacts of Hybrid Campus and Autonomous Electric Vehicles as GHG Mitigation Strategies: A Case Study for a Mid-Size Canadian Post-Secondary School," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-14, November.
    14. Pavol Durana & Katarina Valaskova & Roman Blazek & Jozef Palo, 2022. "Metamorphoses of Earnings in the Transport Sector of the V4 Region," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-14, April.
    15. Zhang, Junyi & Hayashi, Yoshitsugu, 2022. "Research frontier of COVID-19 and passenger transport: A focus on policymaking," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 78-88.
    16. Inese Mavlutova & Dzintra Atstaja & Janis Grasis & Jekaterina Kuzmina & Inga Uvarova & Dagnija Roga, 2023. "Urban Transportation Concept and Sustainable Urban Mobility in Smart Cities: A Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(8), pages 1-16, April.
    17. Chiriboga, Gonzalo & Chamba, Rommel & Garcia, Andrés & Heredia-Fonseca, Roberto & Montero- Calderón, Carolina & Carvajal C, Ghem, 2023. "Useful energy is a meaningful approach to building the decarbonization: A case of study of the Ecuadorian transport sector," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 76-87.
    18. Antonio Oliva & Francesco Gracceva & Daniele Lerede & Matteo Nicoli & Laura Savoldi, 2021. "Projection of Post-Pandemic Italian Industrial Production through Vector AutoRegressive Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-18, September.
    19. Weiwei Chen & Yibo Wang & Jia Zhang & Wei Dou & Yaxuan Jiao, 2022. "Planning and Energy–Economy–Environment–Security Evaluation Methods for Municipal Energy Systems in China under Targets of Peak Carbon Emissions and Carbon Neutrality," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-20, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zhang, Runsen & Fujimori, Shinichiro & Dai, Hancheng & Hanaoka, Tatsuya, 2018. "Contribution of the transport sector to climate change mitigation: Insights from a global passenger transport model coupled with a computable general equilibrium model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 76-88.
    2. Runsen Zhang & Tatsuya Hanaoka, 2022. "Cross-cutting scenarios and strategies for designing decarbonization pathways in the transport sector toward carbon neutrality," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
    3. Daly, Hannah E. & Ramea, Kalai & Chiodi, Alessandro & Yeh, Sonia & Gargiulo, Maurizio & Gallachóir, Brian Ó, 2014. "Incorporating travel behaviour and travel time into TIMES energy system models," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 429-439.
    4. Miquel Oliu-Barton & Bary S. R. Pradelski & Nicolas Woloszko & Lionel Guetta-Jeanrenaud & Philippe Aghion & Patrick Artus & Arnaud Fontanet & Philippe Martin & Guntram B. Wolff, 2022. "The effect of COVID certificates on vaccine uptake, health outcomes, and the economy," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-13, December.
    5. Xu, Jin-Hua & Guo, Jian-Feng & Peng, Binbin & Nie, Hongguang & Kemp, Rene, 2020. "Energy growth sources and future energy-saving potentials in passenger transportation sector in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    6. Runsen Zhang & Kakuya Matsushima & Kiyoshi Kobayashi, 2017. "Computable urban economic model incorporated with economies of scale for urban agglomeration simulation," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 59(1), pages 231-254, July.
    7. Hirte, Georg & Tscharaktschiew, Stefan, 2018. "The impact of anti-congestion policies and the role of labor-supply margins," CEPIE Working Papers 04/18, Technische Universität Dresden, Center of Public and International Economics (CEPIE).
    8. Giulia Orilisi & Marco Mascitti & Lucrezia Togni & Riccardo Monterubbianesi & Vincenzo Tosco & Flavia Vitiello & Andrea Santarelli & Angelo Putignano & Giovanna Orsini, 2021. "Oral Manifestations of COVID-19 in Hospitalized Patients: A Systematic Review," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(23), pages 1-19, November.
    9. David Gomez-Zepeda & Danielle Arnold-Schild & Julian Beyrle & Arthur Declercq & Ralf Gabriels & Elena Kumm & Annica Preikschat & Mateusz Krzysztof Łącki & Aurélie Hirschler & Jeewan Babu Rijal & Chris, 2024. "Thunder-DDA-PASEF enables high-coverage immunopeptidomics and is boosted by MS2Rescore with MS2PIP timsTOF fragmentation prediction model," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-18, December.
    10. Russo, Francesco & Musolino, Giuseppe, 2012. "A unifying modelling framework to simulate the Spatial Economic Transport Interaction process at urban and national scales," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 189-197.
    11. Thisse, Jacques-François & Proost, Stef, 2015. "Skilled Cities, Regional Disparities, and Efficient Transport: The state of the art and a research agenda," CEPR Discussion Papers 10790, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Borsati, Mattia & Nocera, Silvio & Percoco, Marco, 2022. "Questioning the spatial association between the initial spread of COVID-19 and transit usage in Italy," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    13. Alessandro Germani & Livia Buratta & Elisa Delvecchio & Claudia Mazzeschi, 2020. "Emerging Adults and COVID-19: The Role of Individualism-Collectivism on Perceived Risks and Psychological Maladjustment," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(10), pages 1-15, May.
    14. Ioannis Tikoudis & Walid Oueslati, 2021. "MOLES: A New Approach to Modeling the Environmental and Economic Impacts of Urban Policies," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 58(3), pages 641-690, October.
    15. Gabriela Dias Noske & Yun Song & Rafaela Sachetto Fernandes & Rod Chalk & Haitem Elmassoudi & Lizbé Koekemoer & C. David Owen & Tarick J. El-Baba & Carol V. Robinson & Glaucius Oliva & Andre Schutzer , 2023. "An in-solution snapshot of SARS-COV-2 main protease maturation process and inhibition," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-13, December.
    16. Eugene Song & Jae-Eun Lee & Seola Kwon, 2021. "Effect of Public Empathy with Infection-Control Guidelines on Infection-Prevention Attitudes and Behaviors: Based on the Case of COVID-19," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(24), pages 1-18, December.
    17. Kow-Tong Chen, 2022. "Emerging Infectious Diseases and One Health: Implication for Public Health," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(15), pages 1-4, July.
    18. Shujuan Li & Lingli Zhu & Lidan Zhang & Guoyan Zhang & Hongyan Ren & Liang Lu, 2023. "Urbanization-Related Environmental Factors and Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome: A Review Based on Studies Taken in China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(4), pages 1-20, February.
    19. Umit Cirakli & Ibrahim Dogan & Mehmet Gozlu, 2022. "The Relationship Between COVID-19 Cases and COVID-19 Testing: a Panel Data Analysis on OECD Countries," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 13(3), pages 1737-1750, September.
    20. Neeltje van Doremalen & Jonathan E. Schulz & Danielle R. Adney & Taylor A. Saturday & Robert J. Fischer & Claude Kwe Yinda & Nazia Thakur & Joseph Newman & Marta Ulaszewska & Sandra Belij-Rammerstorfe, 2022. "ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (AZD1222) or nCoV-19-Beta (AZD2816) protect Syrian hamsters against Beta Delta and Omicron variants," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-12, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:110:y:2021:i:c:p:28-36. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/30473/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.