IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/transb/v78y2015icp318-340.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Transit technology investment and selection under urban population volatility: A real option perspective

Author

Listed:
  • Li, Zhi-Chun
  • Guo, Qian-Wen
  • Lam, William H.K.
  • Wong, S.C.

Abstract

This paper addresses transit technology investment issues under urban population volatility using a real option approach. Two important problems are investigated: which transit technology should be selected and when should it be introduced. A real option model is proposed to incorporate explicitly the effects of transit technology investment on urban spatial structure in terms of households’ residential location choices and housing market. The trigger population thresholds for investing in a transit technology project and for shifting from a transit technology to another are explored analytically. Comparative static analyses of the urban system and transit technology investment are also carried out. It was found that (i) transit technology investment can induce urban sprawl; (ii) ignoring the effects of transit technology investment on urban spatial equilibrium can lead to a late investment; and (iii) there is a significant difference in the trigger population thresholds for transit technology shift estimated by the net present value approach and the real option approach.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Zhi-Chun & Guo, Qian-Wen & Lam, William H.K. & Wong, S.C., 2015. "Transit technology investment and selection under urban population volatility: A real option perspective," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 318-340.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transb:v:78:y:2015:i:c:p:318-340
    DOI: 10.1016/j.trb.2015.05.006
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0191261515001010
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.trb.2015.05.006?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fujita,Masahisa, 1991. "Urban Economic Theory," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521396455.
    2. Friesz, Terry L. & Mookherjee, Reetabrata & Yao, Tao, 2008. "Securitizing congestion: The congestion call option," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 42(5), pages 407-437, June.
    3. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    4. Chow, Joseph Y.J. & Regan, Amelia C. & Ranaiefar, Fatemeh & Arkhipov, Dmitri I., 2011. "A network option portfolio management framework for adaptive transportation planning," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 45(8), pages 765-778, October.
    5. Li, Zhi-Chun & Chen, Ya-Juan & Wang, Ya-Dong & Lam, William H.K. & Wong, S.C., 2013. "Optimal density of radial major roads in a two-dimensional monocentric city with endogenous residential distribution and housing prices," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(6), pages 927-937.
    6. Robert McDonald & Daniel Siegel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 101(4), pages 707-727.
    7. Xuehao Chu & Steven Polzin, 2000. "Timing rules for major transportation investments," Transportation, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 201-219, May.
    8. Saphores, Jean-Daniel M. & Boarnet, Marlon G., 2006. "Uncertainty and the timing of an urban congestion relief investment.: The no-land case," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 189-208, March.
    9. Tirachini, Alejandro & Hensher, David A. & Jara-Díaz, Sergio R., 2010. "Restating modal investment priority with an improved model for public transport analysis," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(6), pages 1148-1168, November.
    10. John M. Quigley, 1984. "The Production of Housing Services and the Derived Demand for Residential Energy," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 15(4), pages 555-567, Winter.
    11. Geltner, David & Riddiough, Timothy & Stojanovic, Srdjan, 1996. "Insights on the Effect of Land Use Choice: The Perpetual Option on the Best of Two Underlying Assets," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 20-50, January.
    12. Robert M. Solow, 1973. "Congestion Cost and the Use of Land for Streets," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 4(2), pages 602-618, Autumn.
    13. Bowes, David R. & Ihlanfeldt, Keith R., 2001. "Identifying the Impacts of Rail Transit Stations on Residential Property Values," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 1-25, July.
    14. Chow, Joseph Y.J. & Regan, Amelia C., 2011. "Network-based real option models," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 45(4), pages 682-695, May.
    15. Tirachini, Alejandro & Hensher, David A. & Jara-Díaz, Sergio R., 2010. "Comparing operator and users costs of light rail, heavy rail and bus rapid transit over a radial public transport network," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 231-242.
    16. McDonald, John F. & Osuji, Clifford I., 1995. "The effect of anticipated transportation improvement on residential land values," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 261-278, June.
    17. Sivakumaran, Karthik & Li, Yuwei & Cassidy, Michael & Madanat, Samer, 2014. "Access and the choice of transit technology," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 204-221.
    18. Beckmann, Martin J., 1974. "Spatial equilibrium in the housing market," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 99-107, January.
    19. Li, Zhi-Chun & Lam, William H.K. & Wong, S.C. & Sumalee, A., 2012. "Design of a rail transit line for profit maximization in a linear transportation corridor," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 50-70.
    20. Joseph Y. J. Chow & Amelia C. Regan, 2011. "Real Option Pricing of Network Design Investments," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 45(1), pages 50-63, February.
    21. Beckmann, Martin J., 1969. "On the distribution of urban rent and residential density," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 60-67, June.
    22. Li, Zhi-Chun & Lam, William H.K. & Wong, S.C. & Choi, Keechoo, 2012. "Modeling the effects of integrated rail and property development on the design of rail line services in a linear monocentric city," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 46(6), pages 710-728.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhang, Jie & Wang, David Z.W. & Meng, Meng, 2018. "Which service is better on a linear travel corridor: Park & ride or on-demand public bus?," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 803-818.
    2. Li, Zhi-Chun & Ma, Jia-Chun, 2021. "Investing in inter-city and/or intra-city rail lines? A general equilibrium analysis for a two-city system," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 59-82.
    3. Shi, Shasha & An, Qingxian & Chen, Ke, 2020. "Optimal choice of capacity, toll, and subsidy for build-operate-transfer roads with a paid minimum traffic guarantee," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 228-254.
    4. Huang, Hai-Jun & Xia, Tian & Tian, Qiong & Liu, Tian-Liang & Wang, Chenlan & Li, Daqing, 2020. "Transportation issues in developing China's urban agglomerations," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 1-22.
    5. Feder, Christophe, 2018. "Decentralization and spillovers: A new role for transportation infrastructure," Economics of Transportation, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 36-47.
    6. Li, Shuai & Cai, Jiannan & Feng, Zhuo & Xu, Yifang & Cai, Hubo, 2019. "Government contracting with monopoly in infrastructure provision: Regulation or deregulation?," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 506-523.
    7. Shumin Zhou & Huijun Sun & Tianchao Guan & Tongfei Li, 2018. "Equilibrium Model of Housing Choice for Heterogeneous Households under Public Rental Housing Policy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-21, November.
    8. Hu, Zhibin & Wu, Guangdong & Han, Yilong & Niu, Yanliang, 2023. "Unraveling the dynamic changes of high-speed rail network with urban development: Evidence from China," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    9. Zheng, Shiyuan & Wang, Kun & Chan, Felix T.S. & Fu, Xiaowen & Li, Zhi-Chun, 2022. "Subsidy on transport adaptation investment-modeling decisions under incomplete information and ambiguity," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 103-129.
    10. Peng, Ya-Ting & Li, Zhi-Chun & Choi, Keechoo, 2017. "Transit-oriented development in an urban rail transportation corridor," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 269-290.
    11. Fatnassi, Ezzeddine & Chaouachi, Jouhaina & Klibi, Walid, 2015. "Planning and operating a shared goods and passengers on-demand rapid transit system for sustainable city-logistics," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 81(P2), pages 440-460.
    12. Ng, Ka Fai & Lo, Hong K., 2017. "On joint railway and housing development: Housing-led versus railway-led schemes," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 464-488.
    13. Guo, Qianwen & Chen, Shumin & Sun, Yanshuo & Schonfeld, Paul, 2023. "Investment timing and length choice for a rail transit line under demand uncertainty," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    14. Guo, Qian-Wen & Chen, Shumin & Schonfeld, Paul & Li, Zhongfei, 2018. "How time-inconsistent preferences affect investment timing for rail transit," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 172-192.
    15. Yu, De-Ping & Li, Zhi-Chun & Liu, Baoli & Nguyen-Phuoc, Duy Quy, 2023. "Transit-oriented development and floor area ratio regulation in a transportation corridor: Formulation and a case study," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    16. Li, Shuai & Cai, Hubo, 2017. "Government incentive impacts on private investment behaviors under demand uncertainty," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 115-129.
    17. Li, Zhi-Chun & Wang, Ya-Dong, 2018. "Analysis of multimodal two-dimensional urban system equilibrium for cordon toll pricing and bus service design," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 244-265.
    18. Dezhi Zhang & Jiehui Jiang & Shuangyan Li & Xiamiao Li & Qingwen Zhan, 2017. "Optimal Investment Timing and Size of a Logistics Park: A Real Options Perspective," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2017, pages 1-12, December.
    19. Sang, Jinyan & Li, Zhi-Chun & Lam, William H.K. & Wong, S.C., 2019. "Design of build-operate-transfer contract for integrated rail and property development with uncertainty in future urban population," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 36-66.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sang, Jinyan & Li, Zhi-Chun & Lam, William H.K. & Wong, S.C., 2019. "Design of build-operate-transfer contract for integrated rail and property development with uncertainty in future urban population," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 36-66.
    2. Peng, Ya-Ting & Li, Zhi-Chun & Choi, Keechoo, 2017. "Transit-oriented development in an urban rail transportation corridor," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 269-290.
    3. Zhi-Chun Li & Li Cheng & André de Palma, 2023. "Ring road investment, cordon tolling, and urban spatial structure: Formulation and a case study," THEMA Working Papers 2023-07, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
    4. Li, Zhi-Chun & Chen, Ya-Juan & Wang, Ya-Dong & Lam, William H.K. & Wong, S.C., 2013. "Optimal density of radial major roads in a two-dimensional monocentric city with endogenous residential distribution and housing prices," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(6), pages 927-937.
    5. Li, Zhi-Chun & Ma, Jia-Chun, 2021. "Investing in inter-city and/or intra-city rail lines? A general equilibrium analysis for a two-city system," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 59-82.
    6. Li, Zhi-Chun & Lam, William H.K. & Wong, S.C. & Choi, Keechoo, 2012. "Modeling the effects of integrated rail and property development on the design of rail line services in a linear monocentric city," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 46(6), pages 710-728.
    7. Li, Zhi-Chun & Cheng, Li & de Palma, André, 2024. "Ring road investment, cordon tolling, and urban spatial structure," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    8. Guo, Qianwen & Chen, Shumin & Sun, Yanshuo & Schonfeld, Paul, 2023. "Investment timing and length choice for a rail transit line under demand uncertainty," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    9. Li, Zhi-Chun & Wang, Ya-Dong, 2018. "Analysis of multimodal two-dimensional urban system equilibrium for cordon toll pricing and bus service design," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 244-265.
    10. Zhi-Chun Li & Qian-Wen Guo, 2017. "Optimal time for implementing cordon toll pricing scheme in a monocentric city," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 96(1), pages 163-190, March.
    11. Guo, Qian-Wen & Chen, Shumin & Schonfeld, Paul & Li, Zhongfei, 2018. "How time-inconsistent preferences affect investment timing for rail transit," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 172-192.
    12. Dezhi Zhang & Jiehui Jiang & Shuangyan Li & Xiamiao Li & Qingwen Zhan, 2017. "Optimal Investment Timing and Size of a Logistics Park: A Real Options Perspective," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2017, pages 1-12, December.
    13. Zheng, Shiyuan & Wang, Kun & Chan, Felix T.S. & Fu, Xiaowen & Li, Zhi-Chun, 2022. "Subsidy on transport adaptation investment-modeling decisions under incomplete information and ambiguity," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 103-129.
    14. Shumin Zhou & Huijun Sun & Tianchao Guan & Tongfei Li, 2018. "Equilibrium Model of Housing Choice for Heterogeneous Households under Public Rental Housing Policy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-21, November.
    15. Zhang, Sizhe & Cardin, Michel-Alexandre, 2017. "Flexibility and real options analysis in emergency medical services systems using decision rules and multi-stage stochastic programming," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 120-140.
    16. Arve, Malin & Zwart, Gijsbert, 2023. "Optimal procurement and investment in new technologies under uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    17. Moccia, Luigi & Laporte, Gilbert, 2016. "Improved models for technology choice in a transit corridor with fixed demand," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 245-270.
    18. Xu, Shu-Xian & Liu, Ronghui & Liu, Tian-Liang & Huang, Hai-Jun, 2018. "Pareto-improving policies for an idealized two-zone city served by two congestible modes," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 117(PB), pages 876-891.
    19. Ahlfeldt Gabriel M., 2011. "The Train has Left the Station: Do Markets Value Intracity Access to Intercity Rail Connections?," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 12(3), pages 312-335, August.
    20. Krüger, Niclas A., 2012. "To kill a real option – Incomplete contracts, real options and PPP," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 46(8), pages 1359-1371.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:transb:v:78:y:2015:i:c:p:318-340. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/548/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.