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A network option portfolio management framework for adaptive transportation planning

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  • Chow, Joseph Y.J.
  • Regan, Amelia C.
  • Ranaiefar, Fatemeh
  • Arkhipov, Dmitri I.

Abstract

A real option portfolio management framework is proposed to make use of an adaptive network design problem developed using stochastic dynamic programming methodologies. The framework is extended from Smit's and Trigeorgis' option portfolio framework to incorporate network synergies. The adaptive planning framework is defined and tested on a case study with time series origin-destination demand data. Historically, OD time series data is costly to obtain, and there has not been much need for it because most transportation models use a single time-invariant estimate based on deterministic forecasting of demand. Despite the high cost and institutional barriers of obtaining abundant OD time series data, we illustrate how having higher fidelity data along with an adaptive planning framework can result in a number of improved management strategies. An insertion heuristic is adopted to run the lower bound adaptive network design problem for a coarse Iran network with 834 nodes, 1121 links, and 10Â years of time series data for 71,795 OD pairs.

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  • Chow, Joseph Y.J. & Regan, Amelia C. & Ranaiefar, Fatemeh & Arkhipov, Dmitri I., 2011. "A network option portfolio management framework for adaptive transportation planning," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 45(8), pages 765-778, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:45:y:2011:i:8:p:765-778
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    3. Krüger, Niclas A., 2012. "To kill a real option – Incomplete contracts, real options and PPP," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 46(8), pages 1359-1371.
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    6. Sayarshad, Hamid R. & Chow, Joseph Y.J., 2015. "A scalable non-myopic dynamic dial-a-ride and pricing problem," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 81(P2), pages 539-554.
    7. Li, Zhi-Chun & Guo, Qian-Wen & Lam, William H.K. & Wong, S.C., 2015. "Transit technology investment and selection under urban population volatility: A real option perspective," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 318-340.
    8. Zhang, Sizhe & Cardin, Michel-Alexandre, 2017. "Flexibility and real options analysis in emergency medical services systems using decision rules and multi-stage stochastic programming," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 120-140.
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