Exploring heterogeneous drivers and barriers in MaaS bundle subscriptions based on the willingness to shift to MaaS in one-trip scenarios

Mobility as a Service (MaaS) is widely considered a promising solution for developing a more sustainable and efficient transport system. It is crucial to understand the entire process of willingness from exposure to the adoption of MaaS at the stage where its penetration is low, including the initial impression of MaaS and further MaaS bundle subscriptions. However, the impact of the initial impression of MaaS scenarios on MaaS bundle subscriptions has not been fully explored, bringing challenges to designing comprehensive MaaS bundles. Inspired by this, we designed a two-step stated preference survey in Beijing, China, to investigate the willingness to shift to MaaS in one-trip scenarios and further the MaaS bundle subscription behavior. Specifically, the initial impressions of MaaS were first estimated based on the choice results in one-trip scenarios, helping detailed model initial impressions. Subsequently, considering the initial impressions and the preferences of MaaS options in one-trip scenarios, we build a Latent Class with a Latent Variable (LCLV) model with the attribute non-attendance (ANA) technique to capture respondents’ heterogeneous preferences for MaaS bundle subscriptions and identify two classes: MaaS Skeptics and MaaS Explorers. The results confirm the heterogeneous preferences of MaaS Skeptics and MaaS Explorers, reflected in the impact of preferences of MaaS options, attitudes toward MaaS bundle subscriptions, and influences of travel patterns and socio-demographic variables. Furthermore, we summarize the characteristics of MaaS Skeptics and MaaS Explorers and explore the heterogeneous drivers and barriers for MaaS development for aspects of price-related and non-price variables. The sensitivity analysis and elasticity calculation indicate that the well-developed transit systems, links between MaaS options and MaaS bundles, and menu-based bundle design may be the common drivers for MaaS development. Moreover, preferred MaaS options in one-trip scenarios and attitudes toward MaaS bundle subscriptions show a significant impact on their MaaS bundle subscription behaviors. The findings of this study provide valuable insights for policymakers and MaaS providers to understand the entire process of adopting MaaS and design attractive MaaS bundles to promote the development of MaaS.