Diffusion of public bicycle systems: Investigating influences of users’ perceived risk and switching intention

Public bicycles have been touted as a convenient, environmentally friendly, and sustainable travel mode. Public bicycles have also been viewed as one part of a holistic solution to reducing negative transportation externalities. However, government and private entities need a better understanding of factors influencing user adoption of public bicycle systems. In this survey study, 470 prospective public bicycle users from Beijing, China completed face-to-face and web-based surveys, providing their perceptions of public bicycle system attributes, perceived risk associated with public bicycle use, and their intention to switch to public bicycles as a new mode of transportation. Our findings suggest that switching intention is directly influenced by user perceptions of the risk of public bicycle use, as well as user perceptions of the system’s relative advantage over other modes of transportation and perceived compatibility of public bicycles with the user’s current travel habits. Moreover, perceptions of risk are found to mediate the relationship between system attributes (complexity and observability) and switching intention. That is, user perceptions that public bicycles are difficult to access and use increases perceived risk and reduces the likelihood they will switch to public bicycles as a mode of transportation. Moreover, when prospective users can observe others using the system, their perceptions of risk decrease, which increases the likelihood they will adopt public bicycles as a new mode of transportation. This research contributes to theory-building in public bicycle adoption and informs business and government leaders on how to promote public bicycle adoption through an increased focus on important public bicycle system attributes.