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Analysis of optimal timing of tourism demand recovery policies from natural disaster using the contingent behavior method

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  • Okuyama, Tadahiro

Abstract

This paper examines the applicability of contingent behavior (hereafter, CB) method for analyzing dynamic processes and efficient policies in tourism demand recovery. The CB questionnaires used for this study used a hypothetical disaster situation of bird flu in Kyoto, Japan. Safety, event, visitor information, and price discounting policies were designed accordingly. Respondents were then asked about their willingness to travel time. The results showed the optimal timing for devising pertinent policies during the year. We found that the first step requires a safety information announcement, within one week, immediately after disaster site decontamination. The second step is the implementation of event information policy within 24th to 36th week after the disaster. The third step constitutes announcing visitor information within the 37th to 52nd week after the second step. The final step is the implementation of price discounting policy, until the 52nd week, immediately after the third step.

Suggested Citation

  • Okuyama, Tadahiro, 2018. "Analysis of optimal timing of tourism demand recovery policies from natural disaster using the contingent behavior method," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 37-54.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:touman:v:64:y:2018:i:c:p:37-54
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tourman.2017.07.019
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    6. Marco Scholtz & Kaat de Ridder, 2021. "Brace for impact! COVID-19, lockdown and the initial reaction and adaptability of Flemish travel consumers," Post-Print hal-03373987, HAL.
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    8. Ritchie, Brent W. & Jiang, Yawei, 2019. "A review of research on tourism risk, crisis and disaster management: Launching the annals of tourism research curated collection on tourism risk, crisis and disaster management," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    9. Chung-Shing Chan & Kazuo Nozu & Qinrou Zhou, 2020. "Tourism Stakeholder Perspective for Disaster-Management Process and Resilience: The Case of the 2018 Hokkaido Eastern Iburi Earthquake in Japan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(19), pages 1-19, September.
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    12. Canh P Nguyen, 2023. "Last chance to travel or safety first? The influence of exposure to natural hazards and coping capacities on tourism consumption," Tourism Economics, , vol. 29(4), pages 952-985, June.
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    16. Joyce Apple, 2023. "Disaster Risk Management Preparedness and Challenges of a Local Beach and Dive Resort in Southern Negros Occidental," Technium Business and Management, Technium Science, vol. 3(1), pages 1-24–58.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Natural disaster; Tourism demand; Recovery process; Contingent behavior method;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • Z30 - Other Special Topics - - Tourism Economics - - - General
    • Z38 - Other Special Topics - - Tourism Economics - - - Policy

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