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Spatial and temporal modelling of tourist movements using Semi-Markov processes

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  • Xia, Jianhong (Cecilia)
  • Zeephongsekul, Panlop
  • Packer, David

Abstract

Tourist movement is a complex process. It can be modelled from a number of different perspectives; for example, Tourism, Geography, Economics, Mathematics, Computer Sciences and Psychology. This paper aims to establish a sound methodology, using Semi-Markov processes to model the spatial and temporal movement of tourists. The objective is to understand, predict, control for, and optimise the decisions made by tourists in their choice of attractions. Semi-Markov processes have a Markov chain and a renewal process embedded within their structure, and as such, can be used to provide a wide variety of practical models. One of the outcomes of this approach is the introduction of a measure to assess the attractiveness of particular tourist attractions based on spatial and temporal interactions between the attractions. A case study conducted at Phillip Island Nature Park, Victoria, Australia is used to validate the model. The study’s results support the proposed model’s efficiency. The results are also practical and useful for assisting park managers and tourist operators with park planning and marketing decisions: for example, knowing which attractions are the most popular, how long tourists will spend at any one site; and what the likely routes are that they will follow.

Suggested Citation

  • Xia, Jianhong (Cecilia) & Zeephongsekul, Panlop & Packer, David, 2011. "Spatial and temporal modelling of tourist movements using Semi-Markov processes," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 844-851.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:touman:v:32:y:2011:i:4:p:844-851
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tourman.2010.07.009
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    1. Truong, Truong P & Hensher, David A, 1985. "Measurement of Travel Time Values and Opportunity Cost from a Discrete-Choice Model," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 95(378), pages 438-451, June.
    2. Xia, Jianhong (Cecilia) & Zeephongsekul, Panlop & Arrowsmith, Colin, 2009. "Modelling spatio-temporal movement of tourists using finite Markov chains," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 79(5), pages 1544-1553.
    3. Xia, Jianhong (Cecilia) & Evans, Fiona H. & Spilsbury, Katrina & Ciesielski, Vic & Arrowsmith, Colin & Wright, Graeme, 2010. "Market segments based on the dominant movement patterns of tourists," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 464-469.
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    1. Hee Chung Chung & Namho Chung & Yoonjae Nam, 2017. "A Social Network Analysis of Tourist Movement Patterns in Blogs: Korean Backpackers in Europe," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-19, December.
    2. Smallwood, Claire B. & Beckley, Lynnath E. & Moore, Susan A., 2012. "An analysis of visitor movement patterns using travel networks in a large marine park, north-western Australia," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 517-528.
    3. Robert G. Aykroyd & Víctor Leiva & Carolina Marchant, 2018. "Multivariate Birnbaum-Saunders Distributions: Modelling and Applications," Risks, MDPI, vol. 6(1), pages 1-25, March.
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    5. Koun Sugimoto & Kei Ota & Shohei Suzuki, 2019. "Visitor Mobility and Spatial Structure in a Local Urban Tourism Destination: GPS Tracking and Network analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-17, February.
    6. Bei Wu & Brenda Ivette Garcia Maya & Nikolaos Limnios, 2021. "Using Semi-Markov Chains to Solve Semi-Markov Processes," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 1419-1431, December.
    7. Lorenzo Masiero & Judit Zoltan, 2012. "Tourists intra-destination visits and transportation mode : a bivariate model," Quaderni della facoltà di Scienze economiche dell'Università di Lugano 1205, USI Università della Svizzera italiana.
    8. Hugo Padrón-Ávila & Raúl Hernández-Martín, 2019. "Preventing Overtourism by Identifying the Determinants of Tourists’ Choice of Attractions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(19), pages 1-17, September.
    9. Angela Chantre-Astaiza & Laura Fuentes-Moraleda & Ana Muñoz-Mazón & Gustavo Ramirez-Gonzalez, 2019. "Science Mapping of Tourist Mobility 1980–2019. Technological Advancements in the Collection of the Data for Tourist Traceability," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(17), pages 1-32, August.
    10. Alessandro Crivellari & Euro Beinat, 2020. "LSTM-Based Deep Learning Model for Predicting Individual Mobility Traces of Short-Term Foreign Tourists," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-18, January.
    11. Antonino Mario Oliveri, Anna Maria Parroco, Franco Vaccina, 2012. "Tourist mobility and destination competitiveness," RIEDS - Rivista Italiana di Economia, Demografia e Statistica - The Italian Journal of Economic, Demographic and Statistical Studies, SIEDS Societa' Italiana di Economia Demografia e Statistica, vol. 66(2), pages 213-234.
    12. José María Martín Martín & Sara Calvo Martínez & José Manuel Guaita Martínez & Domingo Enrique Ribeiro Soriano, 2022. "RETRACTED ARTICLE: Qualitative analysis on the driving force behind upcycling practices associated with mobile applications: Circular economy perspective," Operations Management Research, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 647-661, December.
    13. Park, Sangwon & Xu, Yang & Jiang, Liu & Chen, Zhelin & Huang, Shuyi, 2020. "Spatial structures of tourism destinations: A trajectory data mining approach leveraging mobile big data," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    14. Zheng, Weimin & Liao, Zhixue & Qin, Jing, 2017. "Using a four-step heuristic algorithm to design personalized day tour route within a tourist attraction," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 335-349.
    15. Yuqing Zhang & Chengcheng Zhan & Hui Wang & Ya Gao, 2022. "Evolution and reconstruction of settlement space in tourist islands: a case study of Dachangshan Island, Changhai County," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(8), pages 9777-9808, August.
    16. Zheng, Weimin & Huang, Xiaoting & Li, Yuan, 2017. "Understanding the tourist mobility using GPS: Where is the next place?," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 267-280.
    17. José Manuel Sánchez Martín & Juan Ignacio Rengifo Gallego & Luz María Martín Delgado, 2018. "Tourist Mobility at the Destination Toward Protected Areas: The Case-Study of Extremadura," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-19, December.

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