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Global world (dis-)order? Analyzing the dynamic evolution of the micro-structure of multipolarism by means of an unsupervised neural network approach

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  • Erspamer, Christopher
  • Della Torre, Francesca
  • Massini, Giulia
  • Ferilli, Guido
  • Sacco, Pier Luigi
  • Buscema, Paolo Massimo

Abstract

We make use of an advanced artificial neural network (Auto-CM) to model the structure of the current world order as a data-driven reconstruction of the implicit relationships between countries and of their time evolution, as derived from a database of publicly observable socioeconomic and political variables. Building on previous research, we analyze 93 variables derived from dozens of key indicators for 128 countries and trace their evolution along a period of eight years, 2007–2014. We find evidence of an increasing structural instability that seems to signal a transition toward a new, as yet undetermined, multipolar world order.

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  • Erspamer, Christopher & Della Torre, Francesca & Massini, Giulia & Ferilli, Guido & Sacco, Pier Luigi & Buscema, Paolo Massimo, 2022. "Global world (dis-)order? Analyzing the dynamic evolution of the micro-structure of multipolarism by means of an unsupervised neural network approach," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:175:y:2022:i:c:s0040162521007824
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2021.121351
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    1. Pier Luigi Sacco & Alex Arenas & Manlio De Domenico, 2022. "The political economy of big data leaks: Uncovering the skeleton of tax evasion," Papers 2202.13417, arXiv.org.
    2. Sacco, Pier Luigi & Arenas, Alex & De Domenico, Manlio, 2023. "The political economy of big data leaks: Uncovering the skeleton of tax evasion," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    3. Kraus, Sascha & Kumar, Satish & Lim, Weng Marc & Kaur, Jaspreet & Sharma, Anuj & Schiavone, Francesco, 2023. "From moon landing to metaverse: Tracing the evolution of Technological Forecasting and Social Change," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).

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