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Child road safety in Transition: How economic growth shapes fatality risks for pedestrians, cyclists, and Motorists

Author

Listed:
  • Law, Teik Hua
  • Yang, Kun
  • Zhu, Tong
  • Jakarni, Fauzan Mohd

Abstract

Child road safety is a major international concern, with traffic injuries being a top cause of child deaths. This study examines the connection between economic development and child road fatalities by travel mode to determine if the Kuznets curve—a phenomenon whereby fatalities first increase then decrease with economic development—exists for children. Based on 129-country (1990–2021) data stratified by the Inequality-adjusted Human Development Index (IHDI), the study applies fixed-effects negative binomial regression models to trends in pedestrian, cyclist, motorcyclist, and car occupant fatalities. The results demonstrate distinct and heterogeneous patterns across development levels. In low-IHDI countries, a U-shaped relationship emerges, where fatalities initially decrease but begin to rise again after a specific income threshold, with motorcycle risks resurging earliest. Medium-IHDI countries exhibit a consistent downward trend for most modes, reflecting the dominance of the abatement effect, though child motorcycle fatalities remain stubbornly persistent. Conversely, in high- and very high-IHDI countries, a classic inverse U-shaped Kuznets curve is confirmed. The steepness of the curve is manifested mainly in the case of cyclists and motorcyclists, evidencing their high sensitivity during the process of motorization, while the number of fatalities among car passengers exhibits a smoother trajectory with increased inherent safety standards of vehicles. This study challenges the assumption that economic growth guarantees road safety for children traveling in vehicles.

Suggested Citation

  • Law, Teik Hua & Yang, Kun & Zhu, Tong & Jakarni, Fauzan Mohd, 2026. "Child road safety in Transition: How economic growth shapes fatality risks for pedestrians, cyclists, and Motorists," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 388(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:socmed:v:388:y:2026:i:c:s0277953625011025
    DOI: 10.1016/j.socscimed.2025.118771
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Cameron,A. Colin & Trivedi,Pravin K., 2013. "Regression Analysis of Count Data," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107667273, August.
    2. Ng, Choy Peng & Law, Teik Hua & Jakarni, Fauzan Mohd & Kulanthayan, S., 2018. "Relative improvements in road mobility as compared to improvements in road accessibility and urban growth: A panel data analysis," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 292-301.
    3. Zheng, Qing Yuan & Law, Teik Hua & Wong, Shaw Voon & Ng, Choy Peng, 2024. "Relative improvements between roads and railways and economic performance: A panel data analysis," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 87-96.
    4. Sirajudeen, Abdurrasheed Olayinka & Law, Teik Hua & Wong, Shaw Voon & Ng, Choy Peng, 2025. "Examining the effect of relative improvements in road mobility versus accessibility on the fatality-to-injury ratio: Insights from income as an intermediate variable," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 262-272.
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    10. Ng, Choy Peng & Law, Teik Hua & Wong, Shaw Voon & Kulanthayan, S., 2017. "Relative improvements in road mobility as compared to improvements in road accessibility and economic growth: A cross-country analysis," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 24-33.
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